NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyTOR+1.5U 6.5+136VGK-1.5O 6.5-162
NHL · Thursday 8 October
Maple Leafs at Golden Knights Final Score: Golden Knights Win 4-3 in a Shootout
Final: Vegas Golden Knights 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 in a shootout, Thursday 8 October at T-Mobile Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Golden Knights or the Maple Leafs. Vegas becomes a bet at -109, Toronto at +166.”
What decided it
The teams were level at 3-3 after overtime, and Vegas won the shootout. Vegas had 43 shots to Toronto’s 24, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Toronto Maple Leafs +142, Vegas Golden Knights -170, with a total of 6.5. Vegas, the favourite, won. The 7 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Toronto plays next at the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Vegas plays next against the New Jersey Devils on Friday 30 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Maple Leafs at Golden Knights Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Golden Knights or the Maple Leafs. Vegas becomes a bet at -109, Toronto at +166.
The Vegas Golden Knights are -162 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +136 at DraftKings, which is a 59.3% chance for the Golden Knights once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Golden Knights 57.3%. The gap is 2.0 points toward the Maple Leafs. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
The call has not changed since this page first went up on 29 September. No line was posted then, and the call was a price for each side. Neither is on offer, so it is still no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Golden Knights went 20-12-9 at home, meaning 20 wins, 12 regulation losses and 9 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Maple Leafs went 14-21-6 on the road and lost 27 of 41, a 65.9% road loss rate. The average is 57.3% for the Golden Knights, which leaves 42.7% for the Maple Leafs.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the two prices add to 104.2%. Removed, it leaves the Golden Knights at 59.3% and the Maple Leafs at 40.7%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Golden Knights and 41 road games for the Maple Leafs. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Golden Knights at home, the Maple Leafs on the road
The Golden Knights at home scored 3.56 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Maple Leafs on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.76. Vegas outscored its visitors by 0.46 a game, and Toronto was outscored by 0.88 on the road.
The two halves pull in different directions. Vegas won fewer than half at home, 20 of 41, with 9 of its 21 home losses coming after regulation. Toronto lost 27 of 41 on the road, and that is what lifts our number for Vegas to 57.3%.
The Golden Knights finished 39-26-17 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 15 goals, 0.18 a game. They won three playoff series, 4-2 over the Utah Mammoth, 4-2 over the Anaheim Ducks and 4-0 over the Colorado Avalanche, then lost 4-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, were outscored by 46 goals, 0.56 a game, and missed the playoffs.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and Vegas won both: 6-5 in overtime at home on 15 January and 6-3 at Toronto on 23 January. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.0 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line has not moved. It opened at Golden Knights -162 and Maple Leafs +136, and read on 7 October 2026 at 23:11 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, it was the same.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. The Maple Leafs become a bet at +166 or longer, whatever Vegas is priced at. The Golden Knights need -109 or longer, a long way from -162.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 8 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +100 and under -120. The Golden Knights’ games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82 and the Maple Leafs’ in 46 of 82. The Golden Knights’ home games averaged 6.66 goals, the Maple Leafs’ road games 6.64.
The two over rates, 46.3% and 56.1%, average 51.2%. The over at +100 is priced at 47.8% with the margin removed, 3.4 points below our rate. That is short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Golden Knights -1.5 at +150 and the Maple Leafs +1.5 at -180. The Golden Knights won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. The Maple Leafs lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Vegas -1.5 lands 33.5% of the time against 38.4% priced. The gap is short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Maple Leafs at Golden Knights, Thursday 8 October, 10:00 PM ET, T-Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 7 October 2026, 23:11 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 7 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.