Blue Jackets at Blues Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number makes this a coin flip. Either side is a bet at +123 or longer, and neither is at a shorter price.

Our number gives the St. Louis Blues a 50.0% chance to beat the Columbus Blue Jackets at home, and the Blue Jackets the other 50.0%. No line had been posted as of 28 September 2026. The threshold for a bet is 5 points between our number and the market’s, so either team becomes a bet when the market puts it at 45.0% or lower.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Blues went 20-14-7 at home last season: 20 wins, 14 regulation losses and 7 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Blue Jackets went 20-17-4 on the road, so they lost 21 of 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The average of 48.8 and 51.2 is 50.0.

The market’s figure, once a line exists, is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%.

It is a new season, and rosters change over a summer. The evidence in hand is last season: 41 home games for the Blues and 41 road games for the Blue Jackets. Any game either team plays between 29 September and 10 October is not in these figures.

The Blues at home, the Blue Jackets on the road

The two halves are close to identical. At home, the Blues scored 2.83 goals a game and allowed 3.07. The Blue Jackets on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.10. Both were outscored by about a quarter of a goal a game: 0.24 for St. Louis, 0.22 for Columbus.

Neither team changed much between home and away. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, three fewer wins than at home. The Blue Jackets won 20 in each half, going 20-13-8 at home.

The goals moved more than the wins. Away from home the Blues scored 2.80 a game and allowed 3.22, a wider deficit than in St. Louis. Columbus was ahead at home, 3.29 scored against 3.07 allowed. Neither of those halves is in the method, which takes only the Blues at home and the Blue Jackets away.

The Blue Jackets finished 40-30-12 with 92 points. Their goals for and against over 82 games came out level. The Blues finished 37-33-12 with 86 points and were outscored by 27 goals over 82 games. In one-goal games St. Louis went 18-9-12. Neither team played a playoff game.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and Columbus won both: 3-2 at home on 1 November and 5-3 in St. Louis on 31 January. Two games prove nothing about a third.

Pick: Blues or Blue Jackets, at +123 or longer

No line yet, so no bet yet. At 50.0% each way, the side the market prices at +123 or longer is the bet.

A moneyline converts to a chance. +123 means risking 100 to win 123, so the chance it implies is 100 divided by 223, or 44.8%. That is 5.2 points under our 50.0.

Removing the book’s margin only lowers a price’s chance, so at +123 or longer either team is a bet whatever the other side is priced at. A shorter price can still clear the threshold once the margin is out, and that is checked against the line on the day.

What changes it

The price decides it. If the Blues open as the home favorite, the Blue Jackets at +123 or longer become the bet, and the reverse holds for the Blues. A line close to even money on both sides is a pass.

The summer is the other thing. The 82 games behind our number all come from 2025-26, and they say nothing about who is in either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Blue Jackets at Blues, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, Enterprise Center. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.