NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyTOR+1.5U 6.5+164COL-1.5O 6.5-198
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Maple Leafs at Avalanche Final Score: Maple Leafs Win 6-3
Final: Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Colorado Avalanche 3, Saturday 10 October at Ball Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Avalanche at -180. We rate Colorado 3.0 points higher than the market does, and a bet needs 5.”
What decided it
Toronto won the second period by 2. Toronto had 23 shots to Colorado’s 33, and scored 2 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Toronto Maple Leafs +185, Colorado Avalanche -225, with a total of 6.5. Colorado, the favourite, lost. The 9 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Toronto plays next at the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Colorado plays next against the New Jersey Devils on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Maple Leafs at Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Avalanche at -180. We rate Colorado 3.0 points higher than the market does, and a bet needs 5.
The Colorado Avalanche are -180 and the Toronto Maple Leafs +150 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 61.6% chance for Colorado and 38.4% for Toronto. Our number has Colorado at 64.6% and Toronto at 35.4%. The gap is 3.0 points toward the Avalanche. Pass.
When this page first went up, on 29 September, no line had been posted, and it named the price that would make Colorado a bet: -147 or better. The posted -180 is a much shorter price than that, and Toronto at +150 is nowhere near the long price the Maple Leafs would need. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at home, meaning 26 wins, 9 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Maple Leafs went 14-21-6 on the road and lost 27 of 41, a 65.9% road loss rate. The average is 64.6% for Colorado, which leaves 35.4% for Toronto.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -180 and +150 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Avalanche at 61.6% and the Maple Leafs at 38.4%.
Here our number is the more confident of the two, by 3.0 points. It is a new season, rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. The evidence in hand is 41 home games for the Avalanche and 41 road games for the Maple Leafs, all from 2025-26. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Avalanche at home, the Maple Leafs on the road
At home the Avalanche scored 3.83 goals a game and allowed 2.63, a margin of 1.20 a game. The Maple Leafs on the road scored 2.88 and allowed 3.76, and were outscored by 0.88 a game.
Colorado was better still away from home. Its road record was 29-7-5, a 70.7% win rate, three more wins than at home. The method uses only the home half, and 63.4% is the lower of the two. Toronto went 18-15-8 at home and 14-21-6 on the road.
Across the full season the Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points and outscored opponents by 99 goals. In the playoffs they beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-0 and the Minnesota Wild 4-1, then lost 4-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, were outscored by 46 goals, 0.56 a game, and did not play a playoff game. They played 32 one-goal games and went 14-4-14 in them, so 18 of the 32 were losses. 23 of their 82 games went past regulation.
The teams met twice in January and split them. The Maple Leafs won 4-3 in overtime in Colorado on 12 January. The Avalanche won 4-1 in Toronto on 25 January. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Avalanche -180
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.0 points toward Colorado, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Avalanche -180 and Maple Leafs +150 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 9 October 2026 at 14:57 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Colorado was -180 and Toronto +150.
What changes it
The price coming toward Toronto. Colorado at -147 or better would be a bet whatever the Maple Leafs are priced at. Toronto would need +230 or longer, a long way past +150.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -105 and under -115. The Avalanche’s games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82 and the Maple Leafs’ in 46 of 82. Colorado’s home games averaged 6.46 goals, Toronto’s road games 6.64.
The two over rates, 39.0% and 56.1%, average 47.6%. The over at -105 is priced at 48.9% with the margin removed, so our number sits on the under side, by 1.4 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Avalanche -1.5 at +142 and the Maple Leafs +1.5 at -170. Colorado won by two goals or more in 41 of 82 games. Toronto lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Colorado -1.5 lands 44.5% of the time against 39.6% priced. That is a gap of 4.9 points, a tenth short of the threshold. Pass on the puck line.
Maple Leafs at Avalanche, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 14:57 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.