NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyEDM-1.5U 6.5-148SJ+1.5O 6.5+124
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Oilers at Sharks Final Score: Oilers Win 3-1
Final: Edmonton Oilers 3, San Jose Sharks 1, Saturday 10 October at SAP Center at San Jose.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Bet the Sharks at +124.” The Sharks moneyline lost: San Jose lost 3-1.
What decided it
Edmonton won the first period by 1. Edmonton had 20 shots to San Jose’s 20, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| San Jose Sharks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Edmonton Oilers -155, San Jose Sharks +130, with a total of 6.5. Edmonton, the favourite, won. The 4 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Edmonton plays next against the Calgary Flames on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. San Jose plays next against the Vancouver Canucks on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Oilers at Sharks Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Bet the Sharks at +124. Our number has San Jose nearly 10 points above the price.
The San Jose Sharks are +124 and the Edmonton Oilers -148 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 42.8% chance for San Jose and 57.2% for Edmonton. Our number gives the Sharks 52.4%. The gap is 9.6 points, and a side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Sharks at +111 or longer or the Oilers at +135 or longer. The Sharks are now +124, longer than +111. The full number agrees with that page: the Sharks are the bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Sharks went 21-14-6 at home, meaning 21 wins, 14 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Oilers went 19-16-6 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 52.4% for San Jose, which leaves 47.6% for Edmonton.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At +124 and -148 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Sharks at 42.8% and the Oilers at 57.2%.
A gap of 9.6 points is large, so be clear about what the number is. It is built from last season’s home and road results only: 41 home games for the Sharks and 41 road games for the Oilers. No game from 2026-27 is in it, and it has no measure of what changed over the summer. The market prices things this number does not see. It says the gap is there in last season’s results, and no more than that.
The Sharks at home, the Oilers on the road
At home, the Sharks scored 3.07 goals a game and allowed 3.46. The Oilers on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.15. By goals, Edmonton on the road was the better side by a distance: plus 0.24 a game against San Jose’s minus 0.39 at home.
That is the weak point of this bet. The method counts wins, and the Sharks won more than their goals said they would. Over the full season they finished 39-35-8 with 86 points while being outscored by 41 goals, 0.50 a game. They went 22-5-8 in one-goal games, 35 of their 82. A record like that can hold for a season and still not repeat.
The Oilers finished 41-30-11 with 93 points and outscored opponents by 13 goals, 0.16 a game. They lost their one playoff series 4-2 to the Anaheim Ducks. The Sharks missed the playoffs. Twenty games of each team’s season went past 60 minutes.
The teams met four times between January and April, and Edmonton won three. The Oilers won 4-3 in overtime at home on 29 January, 5-3 at home on 17 March and 5-2 in San Jose on 8 April. The Sharks’ one win was 5-4 at home on 28 February. Four games prove little, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Sharks +124
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at +124. The gap is 9.6 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Sharks +120 and Oilers -142 and has moved a little toward Edmonton since. Read on 9 October 2026 at 15:17 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, San Jose was +124 and Edmonton -148.
What changes it
A big move toward San Jose. Against Edmonton at -148, the Sharks stay a bet down to -116; at -117 the gap drops under 5. At +111 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Edmonton is priced at. The Oilers would need +135 or longer, which is nowhere near this line.
The price is one unknown. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over -112 and under -108. The Sharks’ games went over 6.5 in 42 of 82 and the Oilers’ in 48 of 82. San Jose’s home games averaged 6.53 goals, Edmonton’s road games 6.54.
The two over rates, 51.2% and 58.5%, average 54.9%. The over at -112 is priced at 50.4% with the margin removed. The gap is short of 5 points. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Sharks +1.5 at -225 and the Oilers -1.5 at +185. Edmonton won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. San Jose lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Averaged, the Oilers -1.5 land 35.4% of the time against 33.6% priced. A gap under 2 points is no reason to bet. Pass on the puck line.
Oilers at Sharks, Saturday 10 October, 4:00 PM ET, SAP Center at San Jose. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 15:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.