Golden Knights at Wild Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Wild won 23 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 54.9%: bet the Wild at +101 or better, the Golden Knights at +150 or better.

Our number is 54.9% for the Minnesota Wild and 45.1% for the Vegas Golden Knights. No line had been posted for this game as of 30 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Wild went 23-10-8 at home last season: 23 wins, 10 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Golden Knights went 19-14-8 on the road, so they lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average of the two is 54.9% for the Wild, which leaves 45.1% for the Golden Knights.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures. The evidence is 82 games from last season, 41 at home for the Wild and 41 on the road for the Golden Knights.

The Wild at home, the Golden Knights on the road

At home, the Wild scored 3.17 goals a game and allowed 2.80. The Golden Knights on the road scored 2.90 and allowed 3.00. The visitor scored 0.27 a game fewer and allowed 0.20 more.

The Wild won 23 games in both buildings: 23-10-8 at home and 23-14-4 on the road. The Golden Knights were weaker on the road than at home, 19-14-8 against 20-12-9. Their road half is the one the method uses.

The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points, scoring 3.32 goals a game and allowing 2.93, a margin of +0.39. In the playoffs they beat the Dallas Stars 4-2, then lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche.

The Golden Knights finished 39-26-17 with 95 points, scoring 3.23 goals a game and allowing 3.05, a margin of +0.18. In the playoffs they beat the Utah Mammoth 4-2, the Anaheim Ducks 4-2 and the Colorado Avalanche 4-0, then lost 4-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Wild played 37 one-goal games and went 20-5-12 in them. The Golden Knights played 43 one-goal games and went 16-10-17 in them.

The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Wild won all three. They won 3-2 in overtime at home on 16 November, 5-2 on the road on 29 December and 4-2 on the road on 6 March. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so here are the prices at which this becomes a bet. The Wild need the market to rate them at 49.9% or less, with the margin removed. At +101 or better, that holds whatever the Golden Knights are priced at. The Golden Knights need 40.1% or less, and +150 or better does it.

Our number has the Wild 4.9 points above even. With a gap that small, a bet on either side needs a price above even money: +101 for the Wild, +150 for the Golden Knights.

Pick: Wild at +101 or better, Golden Knights at +150 or better

Our number is 54.9% for the Wild. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Wild and 41 on the road for the Golden Knights, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. The line posted on the day decides it. A Wild price of +100 or a Golden Knights price of +149 may still qualify, depending on the size of the book’s margin, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Golden Knights at Wild, Monday 12 October, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 30 September 2026, 00:50 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.