NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyCAR-1.5U 6.5-148PHI+1.5O 6.5+124
NHL · Sunday 11 October
Hurricanes at Flyers Final Score: Hurricanes Win 4-1
Final: Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1, Sunday 11 October at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “Our number leans to the Flyers by 2.3 points. No bet.”
What decided it
Carolina won the second period by 2. Carolina had 30 shots to Philadelphia’s 19, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Carolina Hurricanes -230, Philadelphia Flyers +190, with a total of 5.5. Carolina, the favourite, won. The 5 goals went under the total.
What comes next
Carolina plays next against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday 29 October. Philadelphia plays next at the Washington Capitals on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Hurricanes at Flyers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Our number leans to the Flyers by 2.3 points. No bet.
The Carolina Hurricanes are -148 and the Philadelphia Flyers +124 at DraftKings, which is a 42.8% chance for the Flyers once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Flyers 45.1%. The gap is 2.3 points toward Philadelphia. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this is a pass.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and it named the Hurricanes at +101 or longer or the Flyers at +150 or longer. The posted prices reach neither: Carolina is the favourite at -148, and Philadelphia sits at +124, short of +150.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Flyers went 20-13-8 at home, meaning 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Hurricanes went 24-12-5 on the road and lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. The average is 45.1% for Philadelphia, which leaves 54.9% for Carolina.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -148 and +124 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Hurricanes at 57.2% and the Flyers at 42.8%.
Both numbers make Carolina the favourite. They differ on the size of it: 54.9% from last season’s home and road rates, 57.2% from the market. A difference of 2.3 points sits inside the threshold, and this page does not stake money on it.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Flyers and 41 road games for the Hurricanes. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Flyers at home, the Hurricanes on the road
The Flyers at home scored 2.71 goals a game and allowed 2.76, so they were outscored by 0.05 a game in their own building. The Hurricanes on the road scored 3.29 and allowed 2.78, ahead by 0.51 a game.
Philadelphia’s home half is its weaker one. The Flyers went 23-14-4 on the road, a 56.1% win rate, against 48.8% at home. They scored 3.39 a game away and 2.71 at home. The method uses the home half, which is the less kind one to the Flyers here.
Carolina’s road half is the weaker of its two as well. The Hurricanes went 29-10-2 at home, a 70.7% win rate, and 58.5% on the road.
The Flyers lost 12 games after regulation, and 28 of their 82 went past 60 minutes. In one-goal games they went 17-5-12. The Hurricanes lost 7 after regulation, with 21 games past 60 minutes, and went 24-4-7 in one-goal games.
The Hurricanes finished 53-22-7 with 113 points and outscored opponents by 56 goals over 82 games. They won four playoff series: 4-0 over the Ottawa Senators, 4-0 over the Flyers, 4-1 over the Montreal Canadiens and 4-2 over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Flyers finished 43-27-12 with 98 points and were 7 goals ahead over the season. They beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2 before Carolina swept them.
The teams met four times in the 2025-26 regular season, and all four went past regulation. Carolina won 4-3 in overtime at home on 11 October, 4-3 in a shootout in Philadelphia on 13 December and 3-2 in a shootout at home on 14 December. Philadelphia won 3-2 in a shootout at home on 13 April. Four one-goal games settled after 60 minutes prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: no bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.3 points against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Hurricanes -130 and Flyers +110, which put Philadelphia at 45.7%, a gap of 0.6 points toward Carolina. It has moved toward the Hurricanes since. Read on 10 October 2026 at 15:21 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Carolina was -148 and Philadelphia +124.
What changes it
A longer price on the Flyers. With the Hurricanes left at -148, Philadelphia becomes a bet at +151 or longer. At +150 or longer the Flyers are a bet whatever Carolina is priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin.
The Hurricanes need far more movement. With the Flyers left at +124, Carolina would have to reach +125. At +101 or longer they are a bet whatever the Flyers are priced at, which means Carolina would have to be the underdog.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 11 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Flyers’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82 and the Hurricanes’ in 44 of 82. Philadelphia’s home games averaged 5.47 goals, Carolina’s road games 6.07.
The two over rates, 41.5% and 53.7%, average 47.6%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed. The gap is 1.8 points, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Hurricanes -1.5 at +180 and the Flyers +1.5 at -218. Carolina won by two goals or more in 29 of 82 games. Philadelphia lost by two or more in 22 of 82. Averaged, Hurricanes -1.5 lands 31.1% of the time against 34.3% priced, so the Flyers +1.5 land 68.9% against 65.7%. The gap is 3.2 points, short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Hurricanes at Flyers, Sunday 11 October, 7:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 October 2026, 15:21 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 10 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.