NHL
SpreadTotalMoneySEA+1.5U 6.5+164WSH-1.5O 6.5-198
NHL · Sunday 11 October
Kraken at Capitals Final Score: Kraken Win 5-3
Final: Seattle Kraken 5, Washington Capitals 3, Sunday 11 October at Capital One Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Kraken at +164. The market and our number both have Washington a clear favourite, and they sit 1.5 points apart.”
What decided it
Seattle won the second period by 1. Seattle had 27 shots to Washington’s 36, and scored 0 power-play goals to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Kraken | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| Washington Capitals | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Seattle Kraken +170, Washington Capitals -205, with a total of 6.5. Washington, the favourite, lost. The 8 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Seattle plays next against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction. Washington plays next against the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday 28 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Kraken at Capitals Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Kraken at +164. The market and our number both have Washington a clear favourite, and they sit 1.5 points apart.
The Washington Capitals are -198 and the Seattle Kraken +164 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 63.7% chance for Washington and 36.3% for Seattle. Our number gives the Capitals 62.2% and the Kraken 37.8%. The gap is 1.5 points toward Seattle, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 28 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Capitals at -133 or better or the Kraken at +205 or longer. The posted prices reach neither: -198 is well short of -133, and +164 is short of +205, so the full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Capitals went 25-11-5 at home, meaning 25 wins, 11 regulation losses and 5 losses after regulation. That is a 61.0% home win rate over 41 games. The Kraken went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average is 62.2% for Washington, which leaves 37.8% for Seattle.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -198 and +164 the two prices add to 104.3%. Removed, it leaves the Capitals at 63.7% and the Kraken at 36.3%.
The two halves of our number sit 2.4 points apart, and both point to Washington. The market lands 1.5 points above their average, on the same side. A difference that small is well under the threshold, and the page reads nothing more into it.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Capitals and 41 road games for the Kraken. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Capitals at home, the Kraken on the road
The Capitals at home scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.66, a margin of 0.73 a game. The Kraken on the road scored 2.56 and allowed 3.37, a margin of 0.81 the other way.
Washington was a different team on the road. The Capitals went 18-19-4 away, a 43.9% win rate against 61.0% at home, and allowed 3.29 a game there. This game is in their building, which is the half the method uses.
Seattle’s road record was the weaker of its two halves. The Kraken went 19-17-5 at home, a 46.3% win rate, against 15 wins in 41 on the road, 36.6%. They scored 2.95 a game at home and 2.56 away.
The Capitals finished 43-30-9 with 95 points and outscored opponents by 19 goals over 82 games. In one-goal games they went 13-8-9, and 15 of their games went past 60 minutes. The Kraken finished 34-37-11 with 79 points and were outscored by 37 goals. Seattle went 13-5-11 in one-goal games, and 19 of its games went past 60 minutes. Neither team played a playoff game.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and each won at home: Washington 4-1 on 21 October, Seattle 5-1 on 27 January. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Kraken +164
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.5 points against a 5-point threshold, toward the Kraken.
The line opened at Capitals -205 and Kraken +170, which is 64.5% for Washington with the margin removed. It has moved 0.8 points toward Seattle since. Read on 10 October 2026 at 15:21 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Washington was -198 and Seattle +164.
What changes it
The price, and it has some way to go. Neither side is a bet while the market, margin removed, rates the Capitals anywhere from 57.2% to 67.2%. Today’s 63.7% sits 1.5 points above the middle of that band.
With the Capitals left at -198, the Kraken become a bet at +209 or longer. At +205 or longer they are a bet whatever Washington is priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin. With the Kraken left at +164, the Capitals would need -102 or better. At -133 or better they are a bet whatever Seattle is priced at, as long as the pair carries a margin.
Beyond the price, this page states nothing about either lineup on 11 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Capitals’ games went over 6.5 in 34 of 82 and the Kraken’s in 29 of 82. Washington’s home games averaged 6.05 goals, Seattle’s road games 5.93.
The under is the side here. The two under rates, 58.5% and 64.6%, average 61.6%. The under at -125 is priced at 53.2% with the margin removed, more than 8 points below our rate. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the total a gap this size is a lean: the under 6.5 at -125.
The puck line has the Capitals -1.5 at +124 and the Kraken +1.5 at -148. Washington won by two goals or more in 30 of 82 games. Seattle lost by two or more in 32 of 82. Averaged, Capitals -1.5 lands 37.8% of the time against 42.8% priced, so the Kraken +1.5 land 62.2% against 57.2%. Shown to one decimal that is 5.0 points, but before rounding it is 4.99, a hair under the bar. That leans to the Kraken +1.5 at -148 and stops short of 5. Pass on the puck line. There is no bet on this game.
Kraken at Capitals, Sunday 11 October, 5:00 PM ET, Capital One Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 10 October 2026, 15:21 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 10 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.