Senators at Red Wings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has the Senators and the Red Wings level at 50.0%: bet the Red Wings at +122 or better, the Senators at +122 or better.

Our number is 50.0% for the Detroit Red Wings and 50.0% for the Ottawa Senators. No line had been posted for this game as of 30 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Red Wings went 21-16-4 at home last season: 21 wins, 16 regulation losses and 4 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Senators went 21-15-5 on the road, so they lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average of the two is 50.0% for the Red Wings, which leaves 50.0% for the Senators.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures. The evidence is 82 games from last season, 41 at home for the Red Wings and 41 on the road for the Senators.

The Red Wings at home, the Senators on the road

At home, the Red Wings scored 3.10 goals a game and allowed 3.34. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37. The visitor scored 0.29 a game more and allowed 0.03 more.

The Red Wings were better at home. On the road they went 20-15-6, one win fewer than their 21-16-4 at home, and the method uses only the stronger home half. The Senators were weaker on the road than at home, 21-15-5 against 23-12-6. Their road half is the one the method uses.

The Red Wings finished 41-31-10 with 92 points, scoring 2.94 goals a game and allowing 3.15, a margin of -0.21. They did not reach the playoffs.

The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points, scoring 3.39 goals a game and allowing 3.00, a margin of +0.39. They lost their one playoff series 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Red Wings played 33 one-goal games and went 18-5-10 in them. The Senators played 37 one-goal games and went 16-10-11 in them.

The teams met four times in 2025-26, and the Red Wings won three. The Red Wings won 5-3 on the road on 5 January; the Red Wings won 4-3 in overtime at home on 18 January; the Red Wings won 2-1 in overtime on the road on 26 February; the Senators won 3-2 on the road on 24 March. Four games prove nothing about a fifth.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so here are the prices at which this becomes a bet. The Red Wings need the market to rate them at 45.0% or less, with the margin removed. At +122 or better, that holds whatever the Senators are priced at. The Senators need 45.0% or less, and +122 or better does it.

Our number has the teams level at 50.0% each, so both sides need the same price, +122. Anything shorter on either side is a pass.

Pick: Red Wings at +122 or better, Senators at +122 or better

Our number is 50.0% for the Red Wings. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Red Wings and 41 on the road for the Senators, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. The line posted on the day decides it. A Red Wings price of +121 or a Senators price of +121 may still qualify, depending on the size of the book’s margin, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Senators at Red Wings, Tuesday 6 October, 7:00 PM ET, Little Caesars Arena. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 30 September 2026, 00:50 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.