NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNSH+1.5U 5.5+130TOR-1.5O 5.5-155
NHL · Tuesday 6 October
Predators at Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Our number has the Predators 7.1 points above the market. Bet Nashville at +129 or longer.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are -155 and the Nashville Predators +130 at DraftKings, which is a 41.7% chance for the Predators once the margin is removed. Our number gives the Predators 48.8%. The gap is 7.1 points. A side is a bet when the gap is 5 points or more, so this one qualifies.
When this page first went up on 29 September, no line had been posted, and it named two prices: the Maple Leafs at +117 or longer, the Predators at +129 or longer. The line is now posted. Toronto is the favorite, so only the Nashville half of that call applies, and +130 meets it.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win.
The Maple Leafs went 18-15-8 at home, meaning 18 wins, 15 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-17-7 on the road and lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average is 51.2% for the Maple Leafs, 48.8% for the Predators.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -155 and +130, it leaves the Maple Leafs at 58.3% and the Predators at 41.7%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Maple Leafs and 41 road games for the Predators. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Maple Leafs at home, the Predators on the road
The Maple Leafs at home scored 3.29 goals a game and allowed 3.54. The Predators on the road scored 2.93 and allowed 3.34. Both sides were outscored in these games, Toronto by 0.25 a game and Nashville by 0.41.
So the goals favor Toronto. The records favor no one. The Maple Leafs won fewer than half their home games, 18 of 41. The Predators lost 24 of 41 on the road, seven of them after regulation. Our number puts Toronto just 1.2 points above even, and the market has them 8.3 points above it. That difference is the bet.
The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points and were outscored by 0.27 goals a game. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points, outscored by 0.56 a game, and went 14-4-14 in one-goal games. Neither team reached the playoffs.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and split, each winning at home. Toronto won 7-4 on 14 October. Nashville won 5-3 on 20 December. Two games are a small sample, and the method does not use them.
Pick: Predators at +129 or longer
Bet the Predators on the moneyline. The gap is 7.1 points against a 5-point threshold.
The Predators opened at +124 and the Maple Leafs at -148, a gap of 6.0 points. Read on 6 October 2026 at 08:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, the Predators were +130 and the Maple Leafs -155. The move has gone toward the Nashville side of our number, not away from it.
What changes it
A shorter price on Nashville. At +129 or longer the Predators stay a bet whatever Toronto is priced at. Below that it depends on the Toronto price, and the check is made against the posted pair. The Maple Leafs would need +117 or longer to become a bet.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 6 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 5.5 in 55 of 82 and the Predators’ in 44 of 82. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals, Nashville’s road games 6.27.
The two over rates, 67.1% and 53.7%, average 60.4%. The over at -135 is priced at 55.1% with the margin removed, a gap just past 5 points. Those rates are each team’s whole season, home and road, and the method behind our call is built for the moneyline, so we do not make the over a second pick. It is the side of the total these numbers favor.
The puck line has the Maple Leafs -1.5 at +160 and the Predators +1.5 at -192. The Maple Leafs won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games. The Predators lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, Toronto -1.5 lands 26.8% of the time against 36.9% priced. That points the same way as the moneyline: Nashville +1.5 lands 73.2% of the time against 63.1% priced. The call on this page is the moneyline, where the price pays +130.
Predators at Maple Leafs, Tuesday 6 October, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 6 October 2026, 08:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 6 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.