Predators at Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Predators lost 24 of 41 on the road last season. Our number makes the Senators 57.3%: bet the Senators at -109 or better, the Predators at +165 or better.

Our number is 57.3% for the Ottawa Senators and 42.7% for the Nashville Predators. No line had been posted for this game as of 30 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Senators went 23-12-6 at home last season: 23 wins, 12 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-17-7 on the road, so they lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of the two is 57.3% for the Senators, which leaves 42.7% for the Predators.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures. The evidence is 82 games from last season, 41 at home for the Senators and 41 on the road for the Predators.

The Senators at home, the Predators on the road

At home, the Senators scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.63. The Predators on the road scored 2.93 and allowed 3.34. The visitor scored 0.46 a game fewer and allowed 0.71 more.

The Senators were better at home. On the road they went 21-15-5, two wins fewer than their 23-12-6 at home, and the method uses only the stronger home half. The Predators were weaker on the road than at home, 17-17-7 against 21-17-3. Their road half is the one the method uses.

The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points, scoring 3.39 goals a game and allowing 3.00, a margin of +0.39. They lost their one playoff series 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points, scoring 3.01 goals a game and allowing 3.28, a margin of -0.27. They did not reach the playoffs.

The Senators played 37 one-goal games and went 16-10-11 in them. The Predators played 38 one-goal games and went 20-8-10 in them.

The teams met twice in 2025-26 and the Predators won both. They won 4-1 on the road on 13 October and 5-3 at home on 22 January. Two games prove nothing about a third.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so here are the prices at which this becomes a bet. The Senators need the market to rate them at 52.3% or less, with the margin removed. At -109 or better, that holds whatever the Predators are priced at. The Predators need 37.7% or less, and +165 or better does it. A better price is one that pays more: for a favourite, a smaller number after the minus sign.

The Senators are 7.3 points above even in our number, so they stay a bet as a favourite, as short as -109. The Predators need to be priced as a clear underdog, +165 or longer.

Pick: Senators at -109 or better, Predators at +165 or better

Our number is 57.3% for the Senators. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Senators and 41 on the road for the Predators, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. The line posted on the day decides it. A Senators price of -110 or a Predators price of +164 may still qualify, depending on the size of the book’s margin, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Predators at Senators, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 30 September 2026, 00:50 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.