Senators at Devils Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has the Senators and the Devils level at 50.0%: bet the Devils at +122 or better, the Senators at +122 or better.

Our number is 50.0% for the New Jersey Devils and 50.0% for the Ottawa Senators. No line had been posted for this game as of 30 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Devils went 21-17-3 at home last season: 21 wins, 17 regulation losses and 3 losses after regulation. That is a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Senators went 21-15-5 on the road, so they lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. The average of the two is 50.0% for the Devils, which leaves 50.0% for the Senators.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures. The evidence is 82 games from last season, 41 at home for the Devils and 41 on the road for the Senators.

The Devils at home, the Senators on the road

At home, the Devils scored 2.95 goals a game and allowed 3.02. The Senators on the road scored 3.39 and allowed 3.37. The visitor scored 0.44 a game more and allowed 0.35 more.

The Devils won 21 games in both buildings: 21-17-3 at home and 21-20-0 on the road. The Senators were weaker on the road than at home, 21-15-5 against 23-12-6. Their road half is the one the method uses.

The Devils finished 42-37-3 with 87 points, scoring 2.80 goals a game and allowing 3.10, a margin of -0.30. They did not reach the playoffs.

The Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points, scoring 3.39 goals a game and allowing 3.00, a margin of +0.39. They lost their one playoff series 4-0 to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Devils played 31 one-goal games and went 20-8-3 in them. The Senators played 37 one-goal games and went 16-10-11 in them.

The teams met three times in 2025-26, and the Devils won two. The Devils won 4-3 on the road on 9 December; the Senators won 4-1 at home on 31 January; the Devils won 4-3 in overtime at home on 12 April. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so here are the prices at which this becomes a bet. The Devils need the market to rate them at 45.0% or less, with the margin removed. At +122 or better, that holds whatever the Senators are priced at. The Senators need 45.0% or less, and +122 or better does it.

Our number has the teams level at 50.0% each, so both sides need the same price, +122. Anything shorter on either side is a pass.

Pick: Devils at +122 or better, Senators at +122 or better

Our number is 50.0% for the Devils. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Devils and 41 on the road for the Senators, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. The line posted on the day decides it. A Devils price of +121 or a Senators price of +121 may still qualify, depending on the size of the book’s margin, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Senators at Devils, Monday 12 October, 7:00 PM ET, Prudential Center. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 30 September 2026, 00:50 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.