NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyNSH+1.5U 6.5+136OTT-1.5O 6.5-162
NHL · Saturday 10 October
Predators at Senators Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Predators at +136. Nashville turns into a bet at +162 or longer, and Ottawa at -107 or longer.
The Ottawa Senators are -162 and the Nashville Predators +136 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 59.3% chance for Ottawa and 40.7% for Nashville. Our number gives the Senators 56.8% and the Predators 43.2%. The gap is 2.5 points toward Nashville, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
When this page first went up on 30 September, no line had been posted, and the call was the Senators at -109 or better or the Predators at +165 or better. Ottawa at -162 is far shorter than -109, and Nashville at +136 is short of +165. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both.
The Senators went 23-12-6 at home, meaning 23 wins, 12 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Predators went 17-16-7 on the road and lost 23 of 40, a 57.5% road loss rate. The average is 56.8% for Ottawa, which leaves 43.2% for Nashville.
The Predators’ 40 road games leave out one. On 16 November 2025 they lost 4-0 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in Stockholm, a game ESPN lists at a neutral site with Pittsburgh as the home side. The first version of this page counted it, and had Ottawa at 57.3%. Counted, the gap would be 2.0 points. It is a pass either way.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -162 and +136 the two prices add to 104.2%. Removed, it leaves the Senators at 59.3% and the Predators at 40.7%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Senators and 40 road games for the Predators. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures. Here the market and our number agree that Ottawa is the favourite, and differ by 2.5 points on how big a favourite.
The Senators at home, the Predators on the road
At home, the Senators scored 3.39 goals a game and allowed 2.63. The Predators on the road scored 3.00 and allowed 3.33. Ottawa was ahead by 0.76 a game in these games, Nashville behind by 0.33.
On goals, Ottawa at home looks stronger than its record. The 2.63 goals allowed a game is the best figure on either side of this game. The method counts wins, though, and the Senators won 23 of 41 at home.
Across the full season the Senators finished 44-27-11 with 99 points and outscored opponents by 32 goals, 0.39 a game. They were swept 4-0 by the Carolina Hurricanes in their one playoff series. The Predators finished 38-34-10 with 86 points, were outscored by 22 goals, 0.27 a game, and missed the playoffs.
Close games were common for both. The Senators went 16-10-11 in 37 one-goal games, and 17 of their 82 went past regulation. The Predators went 20-8-10 in 38, and 20 of theirs went past regulation.
The teams met twice in 2025-26 and the Predators won both: 4-1 in Ottawa on 13 October and 5-3 in Nashville on 22 January. Two games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Predators +136
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 2.5 points toward Nashville, against a 5-point threshold.
The line opened at Senators -162 and Predators +136 and had not moved when it was read. Read on 9 October 2026 at 15:17 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Ottawa was -162 and Nashville +136.
What changes it
A longer price on either side. At +162 or longer the Predators are a bet, against Ottawa at -162 or at any other price. The Senators need -107 or longer, a long way from -162.
The price is one unknown. This page states nothing about either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +110 and under -130. The Senators’ games went over 6.5 in 40 of 82 and the Predators’ in 35 of 82. Ottawa’s home games averaged 6.02 goals, Nashville’s road games 6.33.
The two over rates, 48.8% and 42.7%, average 45.7%. The over at +110 is priced at 45.7% with the margin removed. Our number and the market’s are level. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Senators -1.5 at +154 and the Predators +1.5 at -185. Ottawa won by two goals or more in 28 of 82 games. Nashville lost by two or more in 26 of 82. Averaged, the Senators -1.5 land 32.9% of the time against 37.7% priced, so the Predators +1.5 land 67.1% against 62.3% priced. That is a gap of 4.8 points, short of 5. Pass on the puck line.
Predators at Senators, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, Canadian Tire Centre. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9 October 2026, 15:17 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 9 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.