NHL
SpreadTotalMoneyVGK+1.5U 5.5-102MIN-1.5O 5.5-118
NHL · Monday 12 October
Golden Knights at Wild Final Score: Wild Win 4-2
Final: Minnesota Wild 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2, Monday 12 October at Grand Casino Arena.
Our call was no bet. Before the game this page said: “No bet on the Wild at -118. Our number has Minnesota 3.2 points above the market’s, and a bet takes 5.”
What decided it
Minnesota won the first period by 3. Minnesota had 28 shots to Vegas’s 23, and scored 1 power-play goal to 0.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Minnesota Wild | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
The last DraftKings moneyline ESPN holds for the game is Vegas Golden Knights -108, Minnesota Wild -112, with a total of 5.5. Minnesota, the favourite, won. The 6 goals went over the total.
What comes next
Vegas plays next against the New Jersey Devils on Friday 30 October. Minnesota plays next against the New York Islanders on Thursday 29 October.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Golden Knights at Wild Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
No bet on the Wild at -118. Our number has Minnesota 3.2 points above the market’s, and a bet takes 5.
The Minnesota Wild are -118 and the Vegas Golden Knights -102 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 51.7% chance for Minnesota and 48.3% for Vegas. Our number gives the Wild 54.9%. The gap is 3.2 points toward Minnesota, and a side is a bet only when the gap is 5 points or more. Pass.
The mid page of 30 September had no line to read and named two prices instead: the Wild at +101 or better, the Golden Knights at +150 or longer. Neither is on the board. Minnesota at -118 costs more than +101, and Vegas at -102 is far short of +150. The full number agrees with that page: no bet.
How the number is built
One clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, where a win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Games at a neutral site are left out of both, and neither team played one.
The Wild went 23-10-8 at home, meaning 23 wins, 10 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Golden Knights went 19-14-8 on the road and lost 22 of 41, a 53.7% road loss rate. The average is 54.9% for Minnesota, which leaves 45.1% for Vegas.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. At -118 and -102 the two prices add to 104.6%. Removed, it leaves the Wild at 51.7% and the Golden Knights at 48.3%.
Both numbers put Minnesota ahead, ours by a little more. The Wild won 56.1% of their home games last season and -118 prices them at 51.7% here, 4.4 points lower. That home rate rests on 41 games from one season. It is a new season, rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. No game from 2026-27 is in these figures.
The Wild at home, the Golden Knights on the road
The Wild at home scored 3.17 goals a game and allowed 2.80, so they outscored visitors by 0.37 a game. The Golden Knights on the road scored 2.90 and allowed 3.00, outscored by 0.10 a game.
Minnesota was the same team in both buildings by wins: 23-14-4 on the road, a 56.1% win rate over 41 games, the same rate as at home. Vegas went 20-12-9 at home, a 48.8% win rate over 41 games, against 19 wins on the road. The method uses the Golden Knights’ road half, the weaker one by a single win.
Across 82 games the Wild played 27 that went past 60 minutes and lost 12 of them. In one-goal games they went 20-5-12. The Golden Knights played 26 games past 60 minutes and lost 17 of them, and went 16-10-17 in one-goal games.
The Wild finished 46-24-12 with 104 points and outscored their opponents by 32 goals over 82 games. The Golden Knights finished 39-26-17 with 95 points and outscored theirs by 15. In the playoffs the Wild beat the Dallas Stars 4-2, then lost 4-1 to the Colorado Avalanche. The Golden Knights went further: they beat the Utah Mammoth 4-2, the Anaheim Ducks 4-2 and the Colorado Avalanche 4-0, then lost 4-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes.
So the method favours the team that finished 9 points ahead in the regular season, on its own ice, over the team that won three playoff series to Minnesota’s one. The method does not use playoff games.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Wild won all three: 3-2 in overtime in Minnesota on 16 November, 5-2 in Las Vegas on 29 December and 4-2 in Las Vegas on 6 March. Three games prove nothing, and the method does not use them.
Pick: No bet on the Wild -118
Pass on the moneyline. The gap is 3.2 points toward Minnesota, against a 5-point threshold.
ESPN shows the same pair as the opening price: Wild -118 and Golden Knights -102. Read on 11 October 2026 at 19:16 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, Minnesota was -118 and Vegas -102.
What changes it
A move toward Vegas. With the Golden Knights left at -102, the Wild become a bet at -101 or better, a drop of 17 cents. At +101 or better they are a bet whatever the Golden Knights are priced at. The Golden Knights need +150 or longer on the same terms, a long way from -102.
A price is only one of the unknowns. This page states nothing about either lineup on 12 October. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -135 and under +114. It opened at 6.5, over +110 and under -130, and was down a goal by this read. The Wild’s games went over 5.5 in 50 of 82 and the Golden Knights’ in 47 of 82. Minnesota’s home games averaged 5.97 goals, Vegas’s road games 5.90.
The two over rates, 61.0% and 57.3%, average 59.1%. The over at -135 is priced at 55.1% with the margin removed. The gap is 4.0 points toward the over, short of 5. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Wild -1.5 at +210 and the Golden Knights +1.5 at -258, which is 30.9% and 69.1% once the margin is out. Minnesota won by two goals or more in 26 of 82 games. Vegas lost by two or more in 16 of 82. Averaged, Wild -1.5 lands 25.6% of the time against 30.9% priced, so the Golden Knights +1.5 land 74.4% against 69.1%. That is a gap of 5.3 points, built on last season’s goal margins only. Our method bets the moneyline only, so on the puck line a gap this size is a lean: the Golden Knights +1.5, at -258, a price that returns little. It points the other way from the moneyline gap, which favours Minnesota, and it changes nothing above. There is no bet on this game.
Golden Knights at Wild, Monday 12 October, 8:00 PM ET, Grand Casino Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 11 October 2026, 19:16 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Nothing here states who is available.