Penguins vs Mammoth Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Penguins at +154. Our number makes Pittsburgh close to a coin flip in Utah, 49.4%; the price gives them 37.8%.

The Utah Mammoth are -185 and the Pittsburgh Penguins +154 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 62.2% for Utah and 37.8% for Pittsburgh. Utah is the right favourite. The price makes them a far bigger one than the figures do, by 11.6 points.

How 49.4% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at a neutral site are in neither half: Pittsburgh’s two games against Nashville in Stockholm, a 2-1 overtime loss on 14 November and a 4-0 win on 16 November, are out of its road half; Utah had none.

The Mammoth went 22-16-3 at the Delta Center: 22 wins, 16 regulation losses and 3 after regulation, a 53.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Penguins went 21-12-7 on the road and lost 19 of 40, a 47.5% road loss rate. The midpoint is 50.6% for Utah and 49.4% for Pittsburgh.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -185 and +154 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Mammoth are 62.2% and the Penguins 37.8%.

Every input is from 2025-26: 41 Utah home games and 40 Pittsburgh road games. This season is not in the figures, and it is where the risk sits. Utah is 6-3-0, 2-1 at home, and lost 6-2 at home to Edmonton on Saturday. Pittsburgh is 3-5-1 and comes in on a western trip that has gone badly: a 5-2 loss in Colorado on Friday and a 6-2 loss in Vegas on Saturday.

Utah at home, Pittsburgh on the road

At home the Mammoth scored 3.34 a game and allowed 3.02, a surplus of 0.32. The Penguins on the road scored 3.55 and allowed 3.08, a surplus of 0.47.

The halves the method leaves out: Utah on the road went 21-17-3, a 51.2% win rate, scoring 3.20 and allowing 2.83. Pittsburgh at home went 19-13-8, 47.5%, scoring 3.65 and allowing 3.58. The Penguins were the better team away from home last season.

Over the full season the two were close. The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 25, then lost 4-2 to Philadelphia in the playoffs. The Mammoth finished 43-33-6 with 92 points, outscored opponents by 28, and lost 4-2 to Vegas in the playoffs.

Utah did better in the tight ones: 16-11-6 in one-goal games, and 10 wins in the 16 that went past regulation. Pittsburgh went 12-7-16 in one-goal games and won 7 of its 23 past 60 minutes.

The two split their meetings in 2025-26. Pittsburgh won 4-3 in Utah on 14 March, and that game is in our number: one of the Mammoth’s 41 home games and one of the Penguins’ 40 road games. Utah’s 5-4 overtime win in Pittsburgh on 14 December is in neither half.

Pick: Penguins +154

Bet the Penguins on the moneyline at +154. The gap is 11.6 points toward Pittsburgh, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Mammoth -185 and Penguins +154 on 18 October 2026 at 21:14 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, unchanged from where it opened.

What kills the bet

A much shorter Pittsburgh price. At +126 or longer the Penguins are a bet whatever Utah is priced at; against -185 they would still clear the bar at -107.

For the Mammoth to become the bet, they would have to be +120 or longer, an underdog. They are -185.

No goalie is on either team’s injury list (ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC), so the method stands as it is. Pittsburgh lists Egor Chinakhov and Samuel Girard as day-to-day, and Trevor van Riemsdyk, Justin Brazeau and Ryan Graves on injured reserve; Utah lists Michael Carcone as out and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. Karel Vejmelka has played eight of Utah’s nine games, Sebastian Cossa three. Pittsburgh has split its goaltending: Arturs Silovs five games, Sergei Murashov four. Check the lineups before you bet.

An underdog at +154 loses more often than it wins, on our number as well as the book’s. The case is that the price pays more than the risk warrants. The risk is plain: a 3-5-1 start, two heavy road losses in two nights, and a number that sees none of it.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over -120 and under +100. The Mammoth’s games went over 6.5 in 38 of 82, the Penguins’ in 47 of 82. Utah’s home games averaged 6.36 goals, Pittsburgh’s road games 6.63.

That is 46.3% and 57.3%, an average of 51.8% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 52.2% and the under at 47.8%, so the price and our number are within half a point. Pass on the total.

The puck line points the same way as the pick, and further. Utah is -1.5 at +136 and Pittsburgh +1.5 at -162, which is 40.7% and 59.3% without the margin. The Mammoth won by two goals or more in 27 of 82 games, and the Penguins lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Averaged, Utah -1.5 lands 27.4% of the time against 40.7% priced, a gap of 13.2 points toward Penguins +1.5 at -162. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean. One bet on this game: the Penguins at +154.

Penguins at Mammoth, Monday 19 October, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:14 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games and goalie appearances from ESPN’s team schedules and game page, read 18 October 2026. Injury list: ESPN, read 18 October 2026, 21:15 UTC.