If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the last two years, it’s not to bet against C.J. Stroud. Since arriving in Houston, Stroud has led the Houston Texans to back-to-back AFC South titles, turning a once-rebuilding team into one of the most exciting young contenders in the league. Now entering his third season, Stroud is the standard the rest of the division is chasing, and he’s a major reason why Houston shows up in lots of Super Bowl futures conversations.

There wasn’t much drama in the AFC South last year. Houston (10–7) was the only team to finish .500 or better, but they were hardly world-beaters. The Indianapolis Colts finished a distant second at 8–9, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans ended the year among the worst records in the sport. For bettors thinking big picture, some of these teams still appear in deep cut futures markets like the AFC Championship odds, though with varying degrees of credibility.

Heading into 2025, the Texans are slight betting favorites again, but it’s far from a sure thing. The Jags are banking on better health. The Colts are hoping year three under Shane Steichen brings real growth. And the Titans…well, they’re still the biggest mystery of the bunch. Sorting through the mess requires a closer look at roster movement, schedules, and key matchups, which is exactly the kind of analysis you’ll find in our full NFL betting guide.

We’ll walk through each team’s odds and outlook, break down some of the best AFC South bets, look at what the best handicappers are saying, and make our picks for how this division might shake out in 2025.

What Teams Are In The AFC South?

The following four NFL teams are in the AFC South:

• Houston Texans: 8 division titles, last won in 2024
• Indianapolis Colts: 9 division titles, last won in 2014
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 4 division titles, last won in 2022
• Tennessee Titans: 4 division titles, last won in 2021

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2025 Houston Texans Season Preview

• 2024-25 Offense: 21.9 ppg (19), 319.7 ypg (22nd), 48.4% RZ TDs (28)
• 2024-25 Defense: 21.4 ppg (10), 307.5 ypg (2), 29 takeaways (5)

If you’re betting on the AFC South this year, there’s a very simple question you should ask yourself: why go against the team that’s already done it twice in a row? The Texans have taken the division crown in each of Stroud’s first two seasons, and unless one of their rivals makes a massive leap, there’s no real reason to expect that to change in 2025.

Stroud is the clear difference-maker. In just two seasons, he’s already racked up over 7,800 passing yards – sixth-most all time through two years – and he’s doing it without turning the ball over. Stroud’s poise, accuracy, and decision-making are elite, and now he’s entering Year 3 with even more help. Stefon Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is injured, but the Texans added depth to the receiving corps around Nico Collins. The Texans added a pair of receivers via the draft – Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel – while veteran Christian Kirk should provide some stability in the slot with Dell out.

And don’t forget the defense. Houston’s unit isn’t just good, it’s built to win playoff games. Last year, Houston allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league (58.8%) and picked off 19 passes. That’s not a fluke. It’s the result of relentless pressure from Pro Bowlers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. (23 sacks combined) and elite corner play from Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, who ranked first and second in completion percentage allowed among qualifying corners. In a division loaded with young QBs, having a pass defense that good is a massive edge.

At +110, the Texans are priced like the team to beat…because they are. They’ve got the quarterback, the defense, the weapons, and the recent track record. Barring an injury bug or a massive leap from someone else in the division, Houston should be your best bet to take the AFC South crown for the third straight year.

Houston Texans Win Total

• Over 9.5 (-110)
• Under 9.5 (-110)

The Texans’ win total is set at 9.5, and based on this schedule, the over feels like one of the sharpest bets on the board. Houston won 10 games last year despite a shaky offensive line and a disappointing offense. This year, Stroud is entering year 3, reinforcements have arrived in the receiving corps, and the defense looks like one of the best in the AFC. Even if you chalk up losses at Kansas City and against San Francisco, there are more than enough winnable games left to get to double-digit wins again.

Even if they split with Jacksonville and Indianapolis (which feels conservative given how they’ve played the division), that’s already a strong base of wins. They also face a Tennessee team that’s clearly rebuilding and may not have the offensive firepower to keep pace. Toss in the fact that Houston gets five prime-time or national TV windows, and it’s clear the NFL expects this team to be in the playoff mix all year long.

What really tips this bet over the edge is the Texans’ ability to win tight games. With a manageable opening stretch and favorable matchups down the back half of the year (Weeks 14–17: @ARI, vs LV, @LAR), the path to 10+ wins is wide open. Take the over.

Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)

Will the Houston Texans Make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (-130)
• No (+110)

At -130, the Texans are a strong value to make the playoffs for the third straight year. I’m expecting a major bounce-back from Stroud after an uneven showing in his second season, and Houston boasts an elite defense that ranked near the top in almost every key category last season. Mix in a coaching staff that’s already proven it can win big games and a division that still looks up for grabs, and Houston has the fewest question marks.

The schedule includes several winnable matchups, and they’ve already shown they can handle their AFC South rivals. Even if they don’t win the division, 10 wins should be enough for a Wild Card spot. With solid continuity on both sides of the ball, they’re built to stay in the hunt all season.

Bet: Yes (-130)

2025 Indianapolis Colts Season Preview

• 2024-25 Offense: 22.2 ppg (16), 334.8 ypg (13), 53.8% RZ TDs (23)
• 2024-25 Defense: 25.1 ppg (24), 361.2 ypg (29), 25 takeaways (9)

At +350, the Colts offer some sneaky value in the AFC South if you’re looking to bet on upside. There’s no doubt the defense has improved on paper. GM Chris Ballard added two proven starters in the secondary in Charvarius Ward and Camryn Bynum, both of whom bring experience and ball production to a unit that ranked 24th in scoring defense last year. New defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who built consistently solid defenses in Cincinnati, is tasked with turning those upgrades into results. If the defense can get back to even league average, that alone could push Indy closer to the top of the division.

Of course, it all comes down to the quarterback. Anthony Richardson still has plenty to prove, especially after an uneven start to his year and a December benching last winter. But the talent is obvious. He rushed for 6 touchdowns and threw for 8 more despite inconsistent playing time, but he also threw 12 interceptions. Jonathan Taylor gives the Colts a true workhorse to lean on if he can stay healthy, which could help Richardson settle in and take better care of the football.

The Colts are also hoping for better health up front and more production from their young pass-catchers. Michael Pittman Jr. is back as the WR1, and second-year receiver Josh Downs could take a big leap after showing promise despite some injuries. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren is a name to watch as a potential red-zone threat, and if the Colts can just get average play from their offensive line, this offense has enough firepower to stay competitive.

Still, the path to a division title is bumpy. Houston has already proven it can win the South, and Jacksonville has a more experienced quarterback. But if Richardson makes a leap, and Anarumo works his magic on defense, the Colts have a real shot. At +350, the price bakes in the uncertainty, but it also gives you a nice return if things click. It’s a bet on breakout potential, not a sure thing. But in this division, that’s not the worst strategy.

Indianapolis Colts Win Total

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

With the win total set at 7.5 and both sides priced at -110, the under looks like the sharper play for the Colts. Yes, the defense has been upgraded, and yes, there’s upside with Richardson, but this is still a young team with a lot of uncertainty. Richardson struggled with decision-making and accuracy last season, and while Taylor’s return helps, the offense still lacks proven weapons outside of Pittman Jr. That’s not ideal when you’re facing a schedule with at least nine games against 2024 playoff teams.

The first half of the schedule looks manageable on paper—games against the Raiders, Cardinals, and Titans could keep Indy hovering around .500 early. But things get brutal after Week 9. The Colts face the Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars (twice), Seahawks, 49ers, and close the season on the road in Houston. Unless Richardson takes a major leap and the defense instantly clicks, it’s hard to imagine them coming out of that gauntlet with a winning record.

Ultimately, this feels like a team still in transition. The Colts are good enough to hang around in most games, but probably not consistent enough to rack up eight wins unless several things break in their favor. Taking the under isn’t a bet against their future, just a realistic look at what 2025 is likely to bring in a top-heavy AFC.

Bet: Under 7.5 (-110)

Will the Indianapolis Colts Make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+210)
• No (-260)

At -260, the oddsmakers are clearly expecting the Colts to miss the playoffs, and it’s hard to argue with that. While there’s some potential in a weak division, the margin for error is razor-thin. The Colts haven’t made the playoffs since 2020 and haven’t won a postseason game since 2018. They’ll likely need at least nine wins to grab a Wild Card spot, and with a tough closing stretch (49ers, Jags, Texans), getting there will be a tall order.

Between the questions at quarterback, the lack of proven weapons beyond Michael Pittman Jr., and a defense that still has to prove it can gel quickly, there are simply too many “ifs” to justify betting on Indy sneaking into the postseason. Even in a division without a juggernaut, the Colts feel like a year away. The “no” at -260 might not be flashy, but it’s the smart side unless everything suddenly clicks.

Bet: No (-260)

2025 Jacksonville Jaguars Season Preview

• 2024-25 Offense: 18.8 ppg (26), 306.2 ypg (25), 58% RZ TDs (13)
• 2024-25 Defense: 25.6 ppg (27), 389.9 ypg (31), 9 takeaways (32)

At +290, the Jaguars are an intriguing long-shot bet to win the AFC South, especially if you believe in the power of a hard reset. Jacksonville cleaned house after a miserable 4-13 campaign, bringing in an entirely new front office and coaching staff. New GM James Gladstone and head coach Liam Coen wasted no time reshaping the roster, signing 12 free agents, drafting heavily on both sides of the ball, and making noise by selecting two-way phenom Travis Hunter. With Hall of Famer Tony Boselli also stepping in as VP of football ops, this is a very different Jaguars team than the one that flamed out last year

The key, as always, is Trevor Lawrence. He’s immensely talented, and now he’s working under Coen, who helped engineer a top-five rushing attack and a career year for Baker Mayfield in Tampa. If Coen can stabilize the offense, protect Lawrence better, and get even average play from the O-line, this team could make a real push. The front office also gave him new pieces to work with, including speedy receivers like Dyami Brown and a hybrid weapon in Hunter. Rookie tight end Johnny Mundt and a deeper running back room led by Tank Bigsby should help keep the offense more balanced than it was under Doug Pederson.

Defensively, Jacksonville made some quiet but meaningful upgrades. The coaching staff is betting big on Josh Hines-Allen to bounce back into double-digit sack territory, while Maason Smith will be expected to contribute more consistently inside. The secondary has some question marks, but if Eric Murray and Andrew Wingard stay healthy, it won’t be the liability it was at times last season. Add in veteran leadership from Foye Oluokun and a “prove-it” year from LB Devin Lloyd, and you can squint and see a defense that could play well enough to keep them in games.

Yes, it’s a leap of faith, but that’s why you’re getting nearly 3-to-1 on the payout. This is a boom-or-bust roster with upside in all the right places: quarterback, edge rusher, and coaching. Houston is the favorite for a reason, and Indianapolis might have a higher floor, but the Jaguars arguably have the highest ceiling in the division if things click. If you’re betting on a turnaround and like your futures with some juice, this is the South’s most compelling lottery ticket.

Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

The Jaguars’ win total is set at 7.5, and with new leadership, a healthy Lawrence, and a much deeper roster, the over at -110 looks like a solid bet. The team made sweeping changes after a 4-13 season, and there’s reason to believe those moves will pay off quickly. Coen brings a creative offensive background, and the early returns on camp buzz suggest he’s making a positive impact on both the scheme and Lawrence’s confidence.

Looking at the schedule, there are more than enough winnable games to justify an over ticket. The Jaguars draw the Panthers, Cardinals, Raiders, Rams, Titans (twice), and Colts (twice). That’s potentially eight favorable matchups before even considering a possible upset or two against teams like the Chargers or Jets. If Lawrence returns to form and the offensive line holds up, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball more efficiently than they did last season. The additions of Hunter, Brown, and a refreshed run game should add some balance that was sorely missing.

This isn’t a slam dunk, but Jacksonville doesn’t need a playoff appearance to clear this number—just competence and a little luck. The defense still has some holes, but there’s young talent like Josh Hines-Allen and Maason Smith who could grow into real contributors. If Coen gets even 75% of the version of Lawrence we saw two seasons ago, and the team avoids another December collapse, 8 or 9 wins is completely within reach.

Bet: Over 7.5 (-110)

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars Make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+180)
• No (-220)

At +180, the Jaguars are a compelling value play to sneak into the playoffs, especially in a soft division that feels wide open behind Houston. The coaching overhaul gives this team a much-needed reset after last season’s collapse. If Coen can replicate even a portion of the success he had in Tampa with the run game and red zone efficiency, Jacksonville’s offense has enough talent to hang with the middle tier of the AFC. With winnable matchups on the schedule and a second-place schedule overall, there’s a real path to 9–10 wins and a Wild Card berth.

Of course, the defensive side will have to hold its own, and that’s where the uncertainty lies. They’ll rely on bounce-back years from guys like Hines-Allen. It’s not a shutdown unit by any stretch, but if they can get pressure and force a few key turnovers each week, Jacksonville doesn’t need to dominate defensively, just be passable. The “yes” at +180 isn’t for the faint of heart, but for bettors chasing upside, this is a team with a new identity and just enough volatility to make it interesting.

Bet: Yes (+180)

2025 Tennessee Titans Season Preview

• 2024-25 Offense: 18.3 ppg (27), 304.2 ypg (26), 53.3% RZ TDs (24)
• 2024-25 Defense: 27.1 ppg (30th), 311.2 (3rd), 18 takeaways (19)

At +650, the Titans are the longest shot to win the AFC South. I’d say it’s justified. Tennessee is starting over with rookie quarterback Cameron Ward, the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, and while there’s long-term hope, immediate contention feels wildly optimistic. Will Levis is out for the year with season-ending surgery, and Ward will now take every first-team rep in camp. While he flashed during OTAs, there’s a massive gap between throwing in shorts and leading a competent NFL offense for 17 weeks.

There are also major concerns along the offensive line. The unit gave up 29 sacks on the right side alone last season, and while the addition of Dan Moore Jr. could help, it’s unrealistic to expect one move to completely fix the trenches. Ward is stepping into a tough situation without much time to develop behind a shaky front. Even if Moore thrives at left tackle, this is still a group that’s very much in flux and could struggle to protect a rookie QB who’s still adjusting to NFL speed.

Defensively, the Titans still have some pieces. Jeffery Simmons is a disruptive force inside, and Cody Barton provides veteran stability at linebacker, but there’s not enough depth to carry this team through growing pains on the other side of the ball. The secondary has moving parts, and while Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is an exciting young talent, Tennessee doesn’t have a lockdown corner or enough high-end playmakers to mask offensive inefficiency.

Could Tennessee shock the world? Sure, but that’s why the odds are so long. More likely, 2025 is a developmental year for Ward and head coach Brian Callahan as they build toward the future. Backing the Titans at +650 to win the division is a bet on chaos, not logic. It’s a fun flyer if you’re into lottery tickets, but there’s just too much youth, too little firepower, and too many question marks for this team to realistically contend in the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans Win Total

• Over 5.5 (-110)
• Under 5.5 (-110)

The Titans’ win total is set at 5.5, and with both sides juiced at -110, the under feels like the more realistic play. Tennessee is rolling out a rookie quarterback, who, while talented, is stepping into a brutal learning curve. The offensive line is still a work in progress, and the receiving corps is a rotating cast of veterans and late-round fliers. Asking a first-year signal-caller to carry this offense through a 17-game grind with matchups against Houston, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Denver is a tall order.

The schedule itself isn’t doing them many favors. Even their most “winnable” games – like the Cardinals, Colts, and Raiders – are either on the road or against teams with proven playmakers. The second half of the season is especially tough, with matchups against the 49ers, Chiefs, Browns, and two games against a potentially improved Jaguars team. There’s a very real scenario where Tennessee enters December with just two or three wins and struggles to do much better than that down the stretch.

This isn’t a knock on Ward’s potential or Callahan’s coaching chops. It’s just hard to see this roster consistently winning in 2025. They’re in the early stages of a rebuild, relying on youth at quarterback, wideout, and the secondary. If everything breaks right, maybe they hit six wins, but the safer bet is on a 4–13 or 5–12 kind of season. The under might not be fun, but it’s the smarter side.

Bet: Under 5.5 (-110)

Will the Tennessee Titans Make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs?

• Yes (+370)
• No (-500)

At +370, betting on the Titans to make the playoffs is essentially a bet on Cameron Ward turning into a star right away—and that’s a lot to ask. Rookie quarterbacks rarely lead their teams to the postseason, especially when they’re paired with a shaky offensive line and an unproven receiving group. The Titans are clearly in rebuild mode, and while the long-term outlook might be bright, the 2025 season looks more like a developmental year than a playoff push.

The “no” at -500 may not offer much value, but it’s the overwhelmingly likely outcome. Tennessee is breaking in a new quarterback and patching holes all over the roster. With matchups against the 49ers, Chiefs, Texans (twice), and a handful of rising AFC teams, the Titans will be outmatched most weeks. Even if Ward shows flashes, this team simply doesn’t have the depth or experience to seriously contend in a loaded AFC.

Bet: No (-500)

AFC South Division Winner Odds

• Houston Texans (+110)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+290)
• Indianapolis Colts (+360)
• Tennessee Titans (+650)

The Texans are the best NFL pick to win the AFC South, plain and simple. Stroud has already led them to back-to-back division titles, and there’s no reason to believe that streak ends now. He’s surrounded by reliable weapons like Collins and protected by a bolstered offensive line that added Fisher and shuffled Howard back inside. On the other side of the ball, Anderson and Hunter headline a ferocious pass rush, while Stingley and Lassiter give Houston arguably the best corner duo in the division. With continuity at coach and quarterback, the Texans are built to win now.

Houston’s defense creates havoc. Last year, they allowed the lowest completion percentage in the league and ranked near the top in interceptions. That’s not a fluke; it’s the result of a system Ryans has built to complement Stroud’s control on offense. The Texans also benefit from a manageable schedule, especially inside the division, where they’ve gone 9-3 over the last two seasons. Unless something goes sideways, they should flirt with double-digit wins again and control their own destiny by December.

But if you’re a risk-tolerant bettor chasing upside, Jacksonville at +290 is worth a look. The entire organization was overhauled this offseason, and Coen brings a more modern, aggressive system that should help Lawrence get back on track. Hunter brings versatility and explosiveness on both sides of the ball, and if the defense is better than expected, the Jags have just enough on paper to make a surprise run. This team has more high-ceiling talent than it did during last year’s catastrophe, and the NFL is known for its year-to-year parity.

At the end of the day, Houston is the pick if you’re playing it smart. They’ve already proven they can win this division, and do it convincingly. But if you’re the type of bettor who likes to swing for the fences, Jacksonville has the right mix of instability, upside, and schedule softness to make that +290 ticket an entertaining sweat.

Bet: Houston Texans (+110)

AFC South Exact Order Of The Division

If you’re taking a shot at the Exact Order market, the most logical place to start is Houston at 1st and Tennessee at 4th. Stroud and a top-five defense give the Texans the division’s most stable core, while the Titans are handing the keys to rookie Ward with one of the weakest offensive rosters in the AFC. At +115, Tennessee finishing last is the most heavily juiced 4th-place prop for a reason. There’s just too much youth and uncertainty for them to survive a full season in a tough AFC.

Where things get tricky is the middle tier. Jacksonville and Indianapolis are both priced at +220 to finish second, and +230 to finish third. That’s a reflection of how thin the margin is between them. T

he Jags have the higher ceiling thanks to the coaching overhaul and raw talent like Lawrence, Hunter, and Smith. But the Colts may be slightly more stable early in the year, especially with a revamped secondary. For bettors looking to build a laddered ticket, locking in Texans 1st, Jags or Colts 2nd, and Titans 4th provides a flexible path with appealing plus-money payouts across multiple combinations.

I’d lean Jacksonville second and Indy third.

Bet: Houston 1st (-105), Jacksonville 2nd (+230), Indianapolis 3rd (+220), Tennessee 4th (+115)

AFC South Division Top 2 Finishing Position

• Texans & Jaguars (+200)
• Texans & Colts (+300)
• Texans & Titans (+500)
• Jaguars & Colts (+450)
• Jaguars & Titans (+800)
• Colts & Titans (+1000)

In the Top-2 Combos market, the Texans & Jaguars at +200 stands out as the most sensible play if you’re seeking both floor and ceiling. Houston is the most complete team in the division and should be in the mix for the crown all year. Jacksonville, while they have a wide range of outcomes, has the offensive upside to edge out Indy and finish second, especially if Lawrence bounces back.

On the flip side, Texans & Titans at +500 is pure chaos. It’s hard to imagine a rookie-led team like Tennessee finishing in the top two unless Ward wildly outperforms expectations and the defense becomes elite overnight. Colts & Titans at +1000 is even more far-fetched unless both Stroud and Lawrence implode.

The sneaky value may actually be Jaguars & Colts at +450, which is a decent middle-ground hedge if you think Houston could slip up due to injuries or random variance.

Still, if you’re playing one combo to win, Texans & Jaguars gives you both logic and leverage.

Bet: Texans & Jaguars (+200)

AFC South Champions

Check out the most recent AFC South winners: