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For a second straight year, the NFL will feature a Friday Night Football game at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo Brazil. This week, it will be an AFC West clash as the Kansas City Chiefs battle the Los Angeles Chargers. It marks just the third time since 1970, that the NFL played a Friday game on opening weekend.
This opening weekend Friday Night Football game is not to be confused with the NFL Black Friday game which has become an annual tradition for the league as they look to take over the entire Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.
While the Chargers are listed as the home team, both squads are technically road teams. So, neither will have a home-field advantage.
When you combine this Friday Brazil game to the Thursday Night Football season kickoff of the Dallas Cowboys vs. the Super Bowl Champs – Philadelphia Eagles, NFL bettors are definitely in for a thrilling opening two days.
Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 1 NFL Predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers.
What Channel Is Friday Night Football On?
- Friday Football Channel: YouTube
- Friday Football Time: 8pm ET
- Friday Night Football Announcers: Rich Eisen and Kurt Warner
The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will kickoff just after 8pm ET in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Friday Night Football Odds
The following Friday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:
Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | -170 | -3 (-110) | O 45.5 (-110) |
Los Angeles Chargers | +145 | +3 (-110) | U 45.5 (-110) |
Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for FNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.
The opening odds saw the defending AFC champs Kansas City Chiefs open as slight favorites. However, that line has grown to -170 and a field goal spread. The Total remains a respectable 45.5 points as sportsbooks are unsure how these new-look offenses will perform in Week 1.
In addition to this weekly betting analysis, if you need more NFL predictions for the Friday Night Football game, or other Week 1 NFL picks, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership. These handicappers had a high win rate last season, and we believe this year will be even better.
Friday Night Football Betting Trends
The following Friday Night Football betting trends include data from last season:
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- 17-3 SU in last 20 games
- 11-3 SU in last 14 road games
- 10-0 SU in last 10 road games versus the Chargers
- 4-10 ATS in last 14 games
- 0-5 ATS in last five AFC West games
- 4-1-1 ATS in last six September games
- Under is 6-2 in last eight AFC games
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends
- 8-4 SU in last 12 games
- 3-6 SU in last nine September games
- 9-3 ATS in last 12 games
- 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as the Underdog
- 5-0-1 ATS in last six AFC West games
- Over is 7-1 in last eight AFC games
Friday Night Football Matchup
These two NFL teams are no strangers to each other, which makes this an even more exciting game to watch. They have played against each other 130 times, and it’s the Chiefs with a sizable series lead at 71-58-1.
Kansas City has won seven games in a row over the Chargers, in addition to 10 consecutive road wins versus LA. The Chargers have not defeated the Chiefs in four years. Even worse for the Chargers, is that the Chiefs are 19-3 in the last 22 games, dating back to 2014.
The one betting trend to keep an eye on for this game is the spread. KC is 0-5 ATS in their last five AFC West games, while the Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six divisional matchups.
Friday Night Football Predictions
Let’s take a look at each team in the Friday Night Football game this week, and make our NFL picks for the spread, moneyline and total bets.
Kansas City Chiefs Friday Night Football
Despite making another trip to the Super Bowl last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were not a great offensive team. In fact, they weren’t a Top 10 team in any major category other than third down (3rd) and fourth down (6th) conversion percentages. While that is impressive, their lack of offensive success was a big reason for losing to the Eagles at SB 59.
So, the Chiefs set out to address their offensive issues during the off-season. Between the draft, trades and Free Agency, the Chiefs boosted their offensive line, added to the backfield, and secured a few more pieces in the passing game. Unfortunately, Rashee Rice will miss the first six games of the season due to a suspension.
Defensively, this squad was a Top 10 unit in most major categories: 6th in points allowed (20.5 ppg), 10th in total yards allowed (328.2 ypg), and 10th against the run (108.1 ypg). Against the Chargers last year, the Chiefs allowed only 13.5 ppg. In fact, over the last two seasons, KC has not given up more than 17 points in a game to the Chargers.
With an improved offense, and a defense that should be at least as good as last year, Kansas City remains the favorite to win the AFC West. And, that should show up this Friday in Brazil.
Los Angeles Chargers Friday Night Football
The Los Angeles Chargers surprised many fans and pundits last year. They exceeded expectations to make the Playoffs. While the offense had its ups and downs, it was the LA defense that led the “charge.”
They finished as the #2 scoring defense in the league, allowing just 18.5 ppg. They also gave up just 1.9 TDs per game which was the best. The Chargers finished in the Top 10 for sack percentage (9th) and passing yards per game (7th) at 209.9 ypg.
While their run defense was a middle of the pack bunch, it still led to LA being a top-tier defense and a double-digit win season.
Offensively, the Chargers didn’t do anything great. In fact, they had to grind out most of their success. At 23 ppg last year, this team ranked 13th in scoring. Their offense didn’t even crack the Top 15 in total yards, rushing yards or passing yards per game.
This offseason, the Chargers decided to fix the offensive problems by bringing back Keenan Allen, signing Najee Harris, drafting two receivers, and taking the second-best RB in the NFL Draft with Omarion Hampton.
I expect Herbert to have more passing success this season. Ladd McConkey was a great WR last year. He will have more help this year. Additionally, the running game should improve with the dynamic Hampton and bruiser Harris.
The one concern about this team is their defense. As long as they stay in the Top 15, I expect this squad to be a Playoff contender again. Friday’s game will show if the Chargers have closed the gap on the Chiefs.
Who Is Winning Friday Night Football?
This is going to be an exciting game. I’m really looking forward to seeing if the Chargers have closed the gap on the Chiefs. However, we have to keep this matchup in proper perspective. It is only Week 1 and the Chiefs don’t have their full offensive arsenal.
With that said, the Chargers have lost seven in a row to KC and 19 of the last 22 head-to-head matchups. So, until they beat the Chiefs, you have to go with the KC moneyline here. Plus, the Chiefs are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games and 11-3 SU in last 14 road games. Two more stats to back the KC moneyline.
As for the Total, I would skip that for this matchup. I’m not a big fan of Totals over the first few weeks. It typically takes the offenses a few weeks to get going. Yet, there are too many outliers with the Overs to feel good about taking the Under.
As for the Spread, this can go either way. The Chiefs won both games against the Chargers last year by 4.5 ppg. Yet, they’re 0-5 ATS in their last five AFC West games and they only beat LA by two points in their second matchup.
The safe play is to skip this spread if it stays at 3 points. If it drops below, then take the Chiefs. If it goes above, then take the Chargers if you feel inclined.
Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-170), Spread (pass), Total (pass)
Friday Night Football Prop Bets
Let’s take a look at some of the best Player props and Game for this Friday Night Football matchup:
Total Passing Yards
- Over 487.5 yards (-115)
- Under 487.5 yards (-115)
Last year, these two teams combined for 424 total passing yards per each of their head-to-head matchups. For the season, the Chiefs averaged 220.8 passing ypg and the Chargers tallied 213.3 ypg.
Both teams want to throw the ball more this year, and I see that happening as the season progresses. But for Week 1, I am leaning on each team trying to run the ball more for this matchup.
Give me the Under for this prop bet as I don’t see these QBs combining for 488 total passing yards in a tough divisional clash.
Bet: Under 487.5 passing yards (-115)
Game Winning Margin
- Chiefs 1-6 (+275)
Until the Chargers beat KC, then I see the Chiefs winning on Friday. However, their margin of victory last year was 4.5 points per game. Both wins were one-score games. In fact, in seven of the last eight matchups, the game has been won by one score. More specifically, the game has been won by six points or less in five of those matchups.
Since I see the Chiefs winning this game, and the spread is around the 3-point mark, I like KC to win this game by one score of six points or less.
Bet: Chiefs 1-6 (+275)
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
- Over 249.5 yards (-110)
- Under 249.5 yards (-110)
As we discussed above, these two teams were limited in their passing games last year versus each other. I don’t see things improving that much for this Week 1 clash. Instead, I think Mahomes fails to crack the 250-yard mark. Last year, he threw for 245 yards and 210 yards in those two games. Without Rice, combined with it being opening week, I see Mahomes failing to hit the 250 mark.
Bet: Under 249.5 yards (-110)
Justin Herbert Rushing Yards
- Over 14.5 yards (-110)
- Under 14.5 yards (-110)
Last year, Justin Herbert rushed for 18 yards per game. However, he failed to eclipse the 14-yard mark in 10 of them. In fact, he only rushed for zero and 12 yards in the two Chiefs matchups. That’s a 6.0 ypg average. I don’t see Herbert going for many yards on the ground. Instead, he will leave that up to Hampton and Harris.
Bet: Under 14.5 yards (-110)
Chiefs Rushing Attempts
- Over 24.5 attempts (-120)
- Under 24.5 attempts (-110)
Last year, the Chiefs averaged 25.9 rushing attempts per game. They hit the 25-attempt mark in both of their matchups against the Chargers. LA’s defense saw 25.6 rushing attempts per game.
With KC struggling to find great success threw the air, and the absence of Rice, I like for the Chiefs to try and run the ball more. They have a healthy backfield in Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and Elika Mitchell. That’s a strong trio of backs who can push the pile and find success on the ground. Give me the Over, as KC will run for at least 25 attempts
Bet: Over 24.5 (-120)
Best Bets For Friday Night Football
The following is our picks as the best bets for Friday Night Football:
- Kansas City Chiefs (-170)
- Chiefs Rushing Attempts Over 24.5 (-120)
- Justin Herbert Under 14.5 rushing yards (-110)
I’ve laid it out a few times above. KC has gone 19-3 SU, 7-0 SU, and 10-0 SU on the road against the Chargers over the last several years. These are numbers you just can’t ignore.
I really like KC to run the ball more against the Chargers. They averaged nearly 26 rushing attempts a game last year, and hit the 25-attempt mark in both contests against LA. I see that happening this week, as well.
In 10 of 17 games last year, Herbert failed to rush for more than 14 yards. In fact, he only averaged 6.0 rushing ypg against the Chiefs in their two matchups. I don’t see Herbert running much this week. Take the Under.
If you want to add all three bets to a parlay card, then you would win $456 on a $100 wager. Check out our best NFL parlay of the week for more betting action.