NBA
NBA · Sunday 1 November
Nets vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Nets at +145. Our number gives Brooklyn on the road 46.3%; the price gives them 39.1%.
The Brooklyn Nets are +145 and the Indiana Pacers -175 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 39.1% for Brooklyn and 60.9% for Indiana. Our prediction, built on last season’s home and road records, puts the Nets 7.2 points higher than the market. We bet at 5.
How 46.3% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so nothing was left out of either half.
The Pacers went 11-30 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 26.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Nets went 8-33 on the road, an 80.5% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 53.7% for Indiana and 46.3% for Brooklyn.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +145 and -175 they come to 104.5%. Taken out, the Nets are 39.1% and the Pacers 60.9%. The market prices Indiana as a clear favourite. Our number makes this close to a coin flip.
This season is not in our number. The Pacers are 2-4, 0-2 at home, and lost 145-125 at the Miami Heat on Friday 30 October. The Nets are 0-5, 0-2 on the road, and lost 110-94 to the Detroit Pistons the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, and summer roster changes sit outside it too. That is the main risk in this bet.
Indiana at home, Brooklyn on the road
At home the Pacers scored 113.8 points a game and allowed 119.2, a margin of -5.4. The Nets on the road scored 103.5 and allowed 116.8, a margin of -13.3. Brooklyn was the worse road team by points. By wins, the method’s measure, the two halves are 11-30 and 8-33.
The halves the method leaves out: Indiana on the road went 8-33, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6. Brooklyn at home went 12-29, scoring 108.4 and allowing 115.0.
The season around it
The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the Eastern Conference, scoring 112.4 a game and allowing 120.4, a point difference of -8.0. The Nets finished 20-62, 13th, scoring 105.9 and allowing 115.9, a difference of -10.0. Neither made the playoffs.
Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, split them. Indiana went 10-12 in those; Brooklyn went 2-12. Both played 2 overtime games. The Pacers won by 10 or more 7 times and lost by 10 or more 38 times; the Nets 12 and 43.
The Pacers won two of the three games between them. In Indianapolis, the Nets won 112-103 on Wednesday 5 November 2025; that game is in our number, one of the Pacers’ 41 home games and one of the Nets’ 41 road games. In Brooklyn, the Pacers won 115-110 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 and 123-94 on Thursday 9 April 2026; those are in neither half. Three games prove nothing on their own.
Pick: Nets +145
Bet the Nets on the moneyline at +145. The gap is 7.2 points toward Brooklyn, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Nets +145 and Pacers -175 on 1 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Nets +136 and Pacers -162. Since the open the market gives Indiana 1.6 points more, 60.9% against 59.3%, so it has moved away from Brooklyn.
What kills the bet
A shorter Brooklyn price. At +142 or longer the Nets are a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at -175, they stay a bet down to +123.
For the Pacers to become the bet, they would have to be +106 or longer, whatever the Nets are priced at. They are -175.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 1 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, has Ivica Zubac (ankle), T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (knee) out for Indiana, with Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) and Obi Toppin (back) day-to-day. For Brooklyn it has Mikel Brown Jr. (rest), Egor Demin (leg) and Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) out. Our method has no injury rule for the NBA, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Brooklyn a 53.7% chance of losing. The case is that +145 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 231.5, over -105 and under -115. The Pacers’ home games went over 231.5 in 22 of 41, a 53.7% rate, and averaged 233.0 points. The Nets’ road games went over in 10 of 41, a 24.4% rate, and averaged 220.3. Over the full season the counts were 40 of 82 and 27 of 82.
The average of the two venue rates is 39.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our count leans to the under by 9.9 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only. This is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Pacers -4.5 at -105 and Nets +4.5 at -115, unchanged from the open. Indiana beat that line in 8 of 41 home games; Brooklyn beat it in 13 of 41 road games. Averaged, Pacers -4.5 lands 43.9% of the time against 48.9% priced, a gap of 5.0 points toward Nets +4.5. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Nets at +145.
Nets at Pacers, Sunday 1 November, 5:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 1 November 2026, 02:32 UTC.