NBA
NBA · Saturday 31 October
Thunder vs Rockets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Thunder at +142. Our number gives Oklahoma City on the road 50.9%; the price gives them 39.6%.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are +142 and the Houston Rockets -170 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 39.6% for Oklahoma City and 60.4% for Houston. Last season’s home and road records put the Thunder 11.3 points higher than that. We bet at 5.
How 50.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Oklahoma City played one, Houston none.
The Rockets went 30-11 at Toyota Center, a 73.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Thunder went 30-10 on the road and lost 10 of 40, a 25.0% road loss rate. The midpoint is 49.1% for Houston and 50.9% for Oklahoma City.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +142 and -170 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Thunder are 39.6% and the Rockets 60.4%.
This season is outside the method. The Rockets are 5-1, 2-0 at home, and lost 116-111 at the Dallas Mavericks on Friday 30 October, the night before this game. The Thunder are 4-1, 1-1 on the road, and lost 120-96 at Dallas on Wednesday 28 October. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so none of those games is in it.
It also does not see who is out. ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, lists five Thunder players out, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams among them. That gap between last season’s team and tonight’s is the main risk in this bet.
Houston at home, Oklahoma City on the road
At home the Rockets scored 114.8 points a game and allowed 107.3, a surplus of 7.5. The Thunder on the road scored 119.2 and allowed 108.3, a surplus of 10.9. The visitor’s road surplus is larger than the home team’s home surplus.
The halves the method leaves out: Houston on the road went 22-19, scoring 115.7 and allowing 112.7. Oklahoma City at home went 34-7, scoring 119.1 and allowing 107.3.
The season around it
Over the 2025-26 regular season the Thunder finished 64-18, the first seed in the West, scoring 119.0 a game and allowing 107.9, a difference of 11.1. They won 43 games by 10 or more and lost 9 by that much. The Rockets finished 52-30, the fifth seed, scoring 115.2 and allowing 110.0, a difference of 5.2, with 27 wins and 11 losses by 10 or more.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Houston went 14-12 and Oklahoma City 9-7. Those are small samples and prove nothing about tonight. The Rockets played 8 overtime games, the Thunder 5.
In the playoffs Oklahoma City beat the Phoenix Suns 4-0 and the Los Angeles Lakers 4-0, then lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-3. Houston lost to the Lakers 4-2.
The Thunder won two of the three meetings. In Houston, the Thunder won 111-91 on Thursday 15 January 2026; that game is in our number, one of the Rockets’ 41 home games and one of the Thunder’s 40 road games. In Oklahoma City, the Thunder won 125-124 in overtime on Tuesday 21 October 2025 and the Rockets won 112-106 on Saturday 7 February 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: Thunder +142
Bet the Thunder on the moneyline at +142. The gap is 11.3 points toward Oklahoma City, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Thunder +142 and Rockets -170 on 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Thunder +140 and Rockets -166. Since the open the market gives Houston 0.4 points more, so it has moved slightly toward the Rockets.
What kills the bet
A shorter Thunder price. At +118 or longer the Thunder are a bet whatever Houston is priced at. With the Rockets at -170, they stay a bet down to -115.
For the Rockets to become the bet, their price would have to drift to +127 or longer whatever the Thunder price is, or to +207 or longer against the current Thunder price. At -170 they are a long way from either.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC:
| Team | Player | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder | Cason Wallace (G) | Out, shoulder |
| Thunder | Chet Holmgren (C) | Out, knee |
| Thunder | Jalen Williams (G) | Out, leg |
| Thunder | Alex Caruso (G) | Out, ankle |
| Thunder | Thomas Sorber (C) | Out, knee |
| Rockets | Alperen Sengun (C) | Out, back |
| Rockets | Reed Sheppard (G) | Out, back |
| Rockets | Steven Adams (C) | Out, calf |
The method reads only last season’s home and road rates, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 218.5, over -115 and under -105. The Rockets’ home games went over 218.5 in 19 of 41, a 46.3% rate, and averaged 222.1 points. The Thunder’s road games went over in 30 of 40, a 75.0% rate, and averaged 227.5. Across all 82 games, Houston went over in 44 and Oklahoma City in 58.
The two rates average 60.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our count leans to the over by 9.6 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Rockets -4.5 at -110 and Thunder +4.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Houston beat that line in 24 of its 41 home games. Oklahoma City beat it in 33 of its 40 road games. Averaged, Rockets -4.5 lands 38.0% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 12.0 points toward Thunder +4.5. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Thunder at +142.
Thunder at Rockets, Saturday 31 October, 8:30 PM ET, Toyota Center, Houston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC.