Kings vs Grizzlies Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Kings at +350. Our number gives Sacramento on the road 42.3%; the price gives them 21.3%.

The Sacramento Kings are +350 and the Memphis Grizzlies -455 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 21.3% for Sacramento and 78.7% for Memphis. Last season’s home and road records put Sacramento 21.0 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 42.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two, Sacramento none.

The Grizzlies went 13-27 at FedExForum, a 32.5% home win rate over 40 games. The Kings went 7-34 on the road, an 82.9% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 57.7% for Memphis and 42.3% for Sacramento.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -455 and +350 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Grizzlies are 78.7% and the Kings 21.3%. Our 42.3% against that 21.3% is a gap of 21.0 points, four times the threshold.

This season is not in our number. Memphis is 5-0, 1-0 at home, and won 124-103 at the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday 29 October. Sacramento is 0-5, 0-3 on the road, and lost 132-120 at the New Orleans Pelicans the same night. Five games each is too few to measure anything. Our number reads only last season, and it does not see what changed over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.

Memphis at home, Sacramento on the road

At home the Grizzlies scored 115.8 points a game and allowed 119.8, a deficit of 4.0. The Kings on the road scored 109.4 and allowed 122.2, a deficit of 12.8. Neither half is a good team. The method asks only how often each one lost in these conditions.

The halves the method leaves out: Memphis on the road went 11-29, scoring 113.3 and allowing 121.9. Sacramento at home went 15-26, scoring 112.6 and allowing 119.8.

The season around it

The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the Western Conference, and were outscored by 6.0 points a game. The Kings finished 22-60, 14th, and were outscored by 10.0 a game. Neither made the playoffs. Memphis lost 32 games by 10 or more and won 9 that way. Sacramento lost 40 by 10 or more and won 6.

In close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, Memphis went 7-9 and Sacramento 10-11. The Grizzlies played two overtime games, the Kings three.

The Grizzlies won three of the four games between them. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 137-96 on 20 November 2025 and the Kings won 123-114 on 23 February 2026. Those two are in our number: two of Memphis’s 40 home games and two of Sacramento’s 41 road games. In Sacramento, the Grizzlies won 115-107 on 30 November 2025 and 129-125 on 4 February 2026. Those are in neither half.

Pick: Kings +350

Bet the Kings on the moneyline at +350. The gap is 21.0 points toward Sacramento, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Kings +350 and Grizzlies -455 on 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Kings +340 and Grizzlies -440. Since the open the market has moved 0.5 points toward Memphis, from 78.2% to 78.7% with the margin out.

What kills the bet

A shorter Sacramento price. At +168 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at -455, they stay a bet down to +105. The price would have to fall a long way before the gap closes.

For the Grizzlies to become the bet, they would have to be -111 or longer, whatever the Kings price. They are -455.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, has Dylan Cardwell (calf), Maxime Raynaud (knee), Keegan Murray (ankle) and Ben Simmons (Achilles) out for Sacramento. Scotty Pippen Jr. (back), Ty Jerome (back) and Quinten Post (ankle) are day-to-day for Memphis. The list does not change our number, which reads last season’s results only. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Sacramento a 57.7% chance of losing. The case is that +350 pays for a 21.3% chance, and last season says the chance is 42.3%.

The total and the spread

The total is 233.5, over -110 and under -110. The Grizzlies’ home games went over 233.5 in 20 of 40, a 50.0% rate. The Kings’ road games went over in 18 of 41, a 43.9% rate. Memphis’s home games averaged 235.6 points, Sacramento’s road games 231.6. Across all 82 games, Memphis went over in 41 and Sacramento in 36.

The average of the two venue rates is 47.0% for the over. The market prices it at 50.0%, so our count leans under by 3.0 points. That is below the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

The spread is Grizzlies -10.5 at -115 and Kings +10.5 at -105, the same number it opened at. Memphis beat -10.5 in 5 of its 40 home games. Sacramento stayed inside +10.5 in 18 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Grizzlies -10.5 lands 34.3% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 16.8 points toward Kings +10.5. That is a lean on the same side. Our method stakes the moneyline only. One bet on this game: the Kings at +350.

Kings at Grizzlies, Saturday 31 October, 8:00 PM ET, FedExForum, Memphis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records, last games and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC.