NBA
NBA · Saturday 31 October
Hawks vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Pelicans at +142. Our number gives New Orleans 43.9% at home and the price gives it 39.6%: a 4.3-point gap, short of the 5 we need.
The Atlanta Hawks are -170 and the New Orleans Pelicans +142 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 60.4% for Atlanta and 39.6% for New Orleans. Last season’s home and road records put the Pelicans 4.3 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5, so this price is close to right.
How 43.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates. One is the home team’s win rate in its own arena. The other is the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a game at a neutral site, so no games are left out of either half.
The Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Hawks went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 43.9% for New Orleans and 56.1% for Atlanta.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -170 and +142 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the Hawks are 60.4% and the Pelicans 39.6%.
Our number reads 2025-26 only, so this season’s games are not in it. The Pelicans are 1-4, with a 1-2 home record, and beat the Sacramento Kings 132-120 on Thursday 29 October. The Hawks are 3-3, 2-1 on the road, and beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 114-111 the same night. Five and six games say little about either team.
New Orleans at home, Atlanta on the road
At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a deficit of 1.3. The Hawks on the road scored 119.1 and allowed 118.1, a surplus of 1.0.
The method leaves two halves out. New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5. Atlanta at home went 24-17, scoring 117.8 and allowing 114.0. The Pelicans’ road record is the worst number on the page, and the method does not use it, because this game is in New Orleans.
The season around it
The Hawks finished 46-36, the sixth seed in the East. They scored 118.5 a game and allowed 116.0, a difference of 2.5. They won 33 games by 10 or more, lost 19 by that much, and went 9-10 in games decided by 5 points or fewer. They lost their playoff series to the New York Knicks 4-2.
The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 115.5 and allowed 120.0, a difference of 4.5 a game against them. In games decided by 5 or fewer they went 6-13, and five of their games went to overtime.
The Hawks won both games between the teams. In New Orleans, they won 115-98 on Saturday 22 November 2025. That game is in our number: one of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and one of the Hawks’ 41 road games. In Atlanta, the Hawks won 117-100 on Wednesday 7 January 2026, and that game is in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this moneyline. The gap is 4.3 points toward the Pelicans, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Hawks -170 and Pelicans +142 on 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Hawks -155 and Pelicans +130. At the open the market gave Atlanta 58.3%, so it has moved toward the Hawks by 2.1 points since.
What kills the bet
A longer New Orleans price turns this into a bet. At +157 or longer the Pelicans are a bet whatever Atlanta is priced at. With the Hawks held at -170, the Pelicans become a bet at +149 or longer. The line has already moved from +130 to +142, so that is 7 cents away.
For the Hawks to become the bet, they would have to drift to -104 or longer, whatever New Orleans is priced at. At -170 they are far from it.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, has Yves Missi (knee) and Jordan Poole (ankle) out for New Orleans. It has Mouhamed Gueye (foot) and Henri Veesaar (knee) out for Atlanta. The list is not in our number and does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 239.5, over -115 and under -105. The Pelicans’ home games went over 239.5 in 14 of 41, a 34.1% rate. The Hawks’ road games went over in 21 of 41, or 51.2%. Across all 82 games, New Orleans went over 30 times and Atlanta 32.
Averaged, our count gives the over 42.7%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our count leans to the under by 8.4 points. The Pelicans’ home games averaged 237.7 points and the Hawks’ road games 237.2, both under the line. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Hawks -4.5 at -105 and Pelicans +4.5 at -115. It opened at 3.5. Against a 4.5-point line, New Orleans covered at home in 20 of 41 games and Atlanta covered on the road in 17 of 41. That count gives Pelicans +4.5 a 53.7% chance against 51.1% priced, a 2.6-point lean toward New Orleans. That is a lean too, and on the moneyline the price is fair. No bet on this game.
Hawks at Pelicans, Saturday 31 October, 7:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC.