76ers vs Hornets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on 76ers vs Hornets. Our number gives Charlotte at home 48.8%, the price gives them 47.8%, and we bet only at a 5-point gap.

The Philadelphia 76ers are -120 and the Charlotte Hornets +100 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 52.2% for Philadelphia and 47.8% for Charlotte. Our number moves Charlotte up by 1.0 point. That is a fifth of what we need.

How 48.8% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game last season, so no game was left out of either half.

The Hornets went 21-20 at Spectrum Center, a 51.2% home win rate over 41 games. The 76ers went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 48.8% for Charlotte and 51.2% for Philadelphia.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -120 and +100 the two come to 104.5%. Taken out, the 76ers are 52.2% and the Hornets 47.8%. Our 48.8% against the market’s 47.8% is a gap of 1.0 point toward Charlotte.

This season so far

Philadelphia is 5-1, 2-0 on the road, and beat the New York Knicks 98-93 on Friday 30 October. Charlotte is 3-3, 2-1 at home, and lost 95-79 at the Washington Wizards on Friday 30 October. Both teams played the night before this game.

None of that is in our number, which reads 2025-26 only. Six games are too few to say anything about either team, and we treat them that way.

Charlotte at home, Philadelphia on the road

At home the Hornets scored 115.0 points a game and allowed 111.1, a surplus of 3.9. The 76ers on the road scored 116.4 and allowed 115.6, a surplus of 0.8.

The halves the method leaves out point the other way. Charlotte was better away from home: 23-18 on the road, scoring 117.0 and allowing 111.2. Philadelphia at home went 23-18, scoring 115.4 and allowing 116.5.

The season around it

The Hornets finished 44-38, ninth in the East, and missed the playoffs. They outscored opponents by 4.8 points a game, won 32 games by 10 or more and lost 19 by 10 or more. In games decided by 5 points or fewer they went 5-11, with 3 overtime games.

The 76ers finished 45-37, seventh in the East, and were outscored by 0.2 points a game. They won 26 games by 10 or more and lost 20 by 10 or more. Their close-game record was 10-10, with 7 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Boston Celtics 4-3 and were swept 4-0 by the New York Knicks.

Philadelphia had the better record and Charlotte the better point difference. Our method reads only the record at the venue that matters, and that record makes this game close to even.

The teams met three times. In Philadelphia, the 76ers won 125-121 on 25 October 2025; that game is in neither half of our number. In Charlotte, the Hornets won 130-93 on 26 January 2026 and the 76ers won 118-114 on 28 March 2026. Both are in our number: two of the Hornets’ 41 home games and two of the 76ers’ 41 road games.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.0 point toward the Hornets, against a threshold of 5.

The line read 76ers -120 and Hornets +100 on 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved since opening.

What kills the bet

A longer Charlotte price is the first thing that would change the call. At +129 or longer the Hornets are a bet whatever Philadelphia is priced at; with the 76ers at -120, the Hornets become a bet at +135 or longer.

For the 76ers to become the bet, their price has to drift to +117 or longer whatever Charlotte is priced at. With the Hornets at +100, Philadelphia becomes a bet at +133 or longer. Philadelphia sits at -120.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 31 October 2026 at 04:56 UTC, has Jaylen Brown (knee), Jabari Walker (knee), Tacko Fall (quadriceps), Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) out for Philadelphia. For Charlotte, Kon Knueppel (hamstring), Coby White (calf), Grant Williams (hamstring) and Kylan Boswell (knee) are out. The list does not enter our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 216.5, over -115 and under -105. The Hornets’ home games went over 216.5 in 31 of 41, a 75.6% rate. The 76ers’ road games went over in 33 of 41, an 80.5% rate. Those games averaged 226.1 and 232.0 points.

The average of the two rates is 78.0% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our count leans to the over by 27.0 points. Over the full season, Charlotte’s games went over 60 of 82 times and Philadelphia’s 68 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Hornets +1.5 at -110 and 76ers -1.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Charlotte beat that line in 22 of 41 home games, and Philadelphia beat it in 21 of 41 road games. Averaged, Hornets +1.5 lands 51.2% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 1.2 points. That is a lean too, and a thin one. The moneyline is a pass at 1.0 point against a threshold of 5.

76ers at Hornets, Saturday 31 October, 6:00 PM ET, Spectrum Center, Charlotte. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 31 October 2026, 04:56 UTC.