NBA
NBA · Monday 26 October
Bulls vs Celtics Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the Bulls at +525. Our number gives Chicago on the road 29.3%; the price gives them 15.3%.
The Chicago Bulls are +525 and the Boston Celtics -750 at DraftKings for the Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics game. With the margin out, that is 15.3% for Chicago and 84.7% for Boston. Last season’s home and road records put Chicago 14.0 points higher than that. We bet at 5.
How 70.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a game at a neutral site, so nothing was left out of either half.
The Celtics went 30-11 at TD Garden, a 73.2% home win rate over 41 games. The Bulls went 13-28 on the road, a 68.3% road loss rate over 41 games. The average is 70.7% for Boston and 29.3% for Chicago.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -750 and +525 they come to 104.2%. With the margin out, the Celtics are 84.7% and the Bulls 15.3%. Our 29.3% against the market’s 15.3% is the whole argument.
This season is outside the method. Boston is 1-1, 1-0 at home, and last played on Friday 23 October, a 107-103 win against the New York Knicks. Chicago is 1-2, 1-1 on the road, and lost 124-120 to the Washington Wizards on Saturday 24 October. Our number reads 2025-26 only. Rosters change over a summer, and the number does not see that. That is the main risk in this bet.
Boston at home, Chicago on the road
At home the Celtics scored 114.8 points a game and allowed 107.0, a margin of 7.8. The Bulls on the road scored 117.7 and allowed 124.4, a margin of -6.7.
These are the halves the method leaves out. Boston on the road went 26-15, scoring 114.9 and allowing 107.3. Chicago at home went 18-23, scoring 114.9 and allowing 118.6.
The season around it
The Celtics finished 56-26, the 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, scoring 114.9 a game and allowing 107.2, a difference of 7.7. They won 38 games by 10 or more and lost 10 that way. In the playoffs they lost a series to the Philadelphia 76ers 4-3.
The Bulls finished 31-51, 12th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 116.3 and allowed 121.5, a difference of -5.2 a game. They won 13 by 10 or more and lost 33. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Chicago went 13-9 and Boston 10-10.
Boston won two of the three meetings. In Boston, the Celtics won 115-101 on Monday 5 January and 124-105 on Wednesday 11 February; those two games are in our number, as part of the Celtics’ 41 home games and the Bulls’ 41 road games. In Chicago, the Bulls won 114-111 on Saturday 24 January; that game is in neither half.
Pick: Bulls +525
Bet the Bulls on the moneyline at +525. The gap is 14.0 points toward Chicago, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Bulls +525 and Celtics -750 on 26 October 2026 at 13:05 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Bulls +575 and Celtics -850. With the margin out, the open gave Chicago 14.2%; the current price gives 15.3%, so the market has moved 1.1 points toward the Bulls since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter Chicago price. At +311 or longer the Bulls are a bet whatever Boston is priced at. With the Celtics at -750, they stay a bet down to +253.
The Celtics become the bet only at a long price. At -191 or longer they are a bet whatever the Bulls are priced at; against the current Bulls +525, Boston would need to be +226 or longer. The current price is -750.
ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026 at 13:03, lists Devin Carter (illness) out for Boston, and Nic Claxton (hamstring) out with Patrick Williams (groin) and Noa Essengue (head) day-to-day for Chicago. Our method does not use the injury list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
Our number still gives Chicago a 70.7% chance of losing. The case is that +525 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.
The total and the spread
The total is 232.5, over -108 and under -112. The Celtics’ home games went over 232.5 in 9 of 41, a 22.0% rate. The Bulls’ road games went over in 26 of 41, a 63.4% rate. Boston’s home games averaged 221.8 points; Chicago’s road games averaged 242.1.
Averaged, our count gives the over 42.7%. With the margin out, the market prices the over at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our count leans to the under by 6.9 points. Over the full season, Boston’s games went over in 22 of 82 and Chicago’s in 46 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Celtics -14.5 at -110 and Bulls +14.5 at -110; it opened at Celtics -13.5. Boston beat that line in 13 of its 41 home games. Chicago beat it in 29 of its 41 road games. Averaged, Celtics -14.5 lands 30.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 19.5 points toward Bulls +14.5. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Bulls at +525.
Bulls at Celtics, Monday 26 October, 7:30 PM ET, TD Garden, Boston. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 26 October 2026, 13:05 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026, 13:03.