Grizzlies vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Kings on the moneyline. Our number gives Sacramento at home 54.5%; the price gives them 39.1%.

The Memphis Grizzlies are -175 and the Sacramento Kings +145 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 60.9% for Memphis and 39.1% for Sacramento. Our grizzlies vs kings prediction puts the Kings 15.4 points higher than the market does. We bet at 5.

How 54.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two of those. Sacramento played none.

The Kings went 15-26 at Golden 1 Center, a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, a 72.5% road loss rate over 40 games. The average is 54.5% for Sacramento and 45.5% for Memphis.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -175 and +145 the two come to 104.5%. With it removed, the Grizzlies are 60.9% and the Kings 39.1%.

This season is outside the number. Memphis is 2-0, 1-0 on the road, and won 111-108 at the Golden State Warriors on Friday 23 October. Sacramento is 0-2, 0-1 at home, and lost 128-120 to the Portland Trail Blazers the same night. Our number reads 2025-26 only, and summer roster changes are invisible to it. That is the largest risk in this bet.

Sacramento at home, Memphis on the road

At home the Kings scored 112.6 points a game and allowed 119.8, a margin of -7.2. The Grizzlies on the road scored 113.3 and allowed 121.9, a margin of -8.6. Neither team won these halves. Memphis lost its half by more.

The halves the method leaves out favour Memphis. The Grizzlies went 13-27 at home, scoring 115.8 and allowing 119.8. The Kings went 7-34 on the road, scoring 109.4 and allowing 122.2. The method’s view is that the venue matters more than the full-season record, and these two splits are where that view comes from.

Over the full season, Sacramento finished 22-60, 14th in the West, scoring 111.0 a game and allowing 121.0, a deficit of 10.0. Memphis finished 25-57, 13th, scoring 114.7 and allowing 120.7, a deficit of 6.0. Both missed the playoffs. The Kings lost 40 games by 10 or more and won 6 by that margin. The Grizzlies lost 32 by 10 or more and won 9. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Sacramento went 10-11 and Memphis 7-9.

Memphis won three of the four games last season. In Sacramento, the Grizzlies won 115-107 on 30 November 2025 and 129-125 on 4 February 2026. Both are inside our number, as two of the Kings’ 41 home games and two of the Grizzlies’ 40 road games, and both count against the Kings. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 137-96 on 20 November 2025 and the Kings won 123-114 on 23 February 2026. Those two are in neither half.

Pick: Kings +145

Bet the Kings on the moneyline at +145. The gap is 15.4 points toward Sacramento, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Kings +145 and Grizzlies -175 on 25 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Kings +136 and Grizzlies -162. Since then the market has moved toward Memphis, giving the Grizzlies 1.6 points more than at the open.

What kills the bet

A shorter Sacramento price. At +102 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at -175, the Kings stay a bet down to -166.

For Memphis to become the bet, the Grizzlies would need to be +147 or longer whatever the Kings’ price. Against Sacramento at +145, that point is +260. The current price is -175.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 25 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Ben Simmons (Achilles), Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Maxime Raynaud (knee) out for Sacramento, with Keegan Murray (ankle) day-to-day. For Memphis, Zach Edey (ankle) is out and Cedric Coward (wrist) is day-to-day. None of these changes the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 236.5, with the over at -105 and the under at -115. The Kings’ home games went over 236.5 in 15 of 41, and the Grizzlies’ road games in 18 of 40. Sacramento’s home games averaged 232.4 points and Memphis’s road games 235.2.

That is 36.6% and 45.0%, an average of 40.8% for the over. With the margin removed the market prices the over at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%. Our count leans to the under by 8.1 points. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean and not a bet.

The spread is Kings +4.5 at -115 and Grizzlies -4.5 at -105. It opened at 3.5. The Kings at home beat this line in 18 of 41 games. The Grizzlies on the road beat theirs in 9 of 40. Our count has Kings +4.5 landing 60.7% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 9.6 points. That is a lean on the same side. There is one bet on this game: the Kings at +145.

Grizzlies at Kings, Sunday 25 October, 9:00 PM ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 25 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 25 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.