Pacers vs Nets Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Nets at +220. Our number gives Brooklyn at home 54.9%; the price gives them 30.0%.

The Indiana Pacers are -270 and the Brooklyn Nets +220 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 70.0% for Indiana and 30.0% for Brooklyn. Last season’s home and road records put Brooklyn 24.9 points higher than that. We bet at 5.

How 54.9% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half, and neither team played one.

The Nets went 12-29 at Barclays Center, a 29.3% home win rate over 41 games. The Pacers went 8-33 on the road, an 80.5% road loss rate over 41. The midpoint is 54.9% for Brooklyn and 45.1% for Indiana.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -270 and +220 they come to 104.2%. Taken out, the Pacers are 70.0% and the Nets 30.0%.

The 2026-27 season is two games old for both teams, and none of it is in our number. Brooklyn is 0-2, 0-1 at home, and lost 125-121 at the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday 24 October, the night before this game. Indiana is 1-1, 1-0 on the road, and lost 121-105 to the Dallas Mavericks on Friday 23 October. Rosters change over a summer, and the number reads only last season. That is the main risk in this bet.

Brooklyn at home, Indiana on the road

At home the Nets scored 108.4 points a game and allowed 115.0, a margin of -6.6. The Pacers on the road scored 111.0 and allowed 121.6, a margin of -10.6. Both halves are losing halves. Indiana’s is the worse one by those figures.

The halves the method leaves out: Brooklyn on the road went 8-33, scoring 103.5 and allowing 116.8. Indiana at home went 11-30, scoring 113.8 and allowing 119.2.

Two of the East’s worst, a season apart

Over the full season the Nets finished 20-62, 13th in the Eastern Conference, scoring 105.9 a game and allowing 115.9, a difference of -10.0. The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th, scoring 112.4 and allowing 120.4, a difference of -8.0. Both missed the playoffs.

Close games, decided by 5 points or fewer, split them. Brooklyn went 2-12 in those; Indiana went 10-12. The Nets won by 10 or more 12 times and lost by 10 or more 43 times. The Pacers’ counts were 7 and 38.

Indiana won two of the three meetings. In Brooklyn, the Pacers won 115-110 on 11 February 2026 and 123-94 on 9 April 2026; those games are in our number, two of the Nets’ 41 home games and two of the Pacers’ 41 road games. In Indianapolis, the Nets won 112-103 on 5 November 2025; that game is in neither half.

Pick: Nets +220

Bet the Nets on the moneyline at +220. The gap is 24.9 points toward Brooklyn, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Pacers -270 and Nets +220 on 25 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Pacers -218 and Nets +180. Since the open the market gives Indiana 4.3 points more, 70.0% against 65.7%, so it has moved toward the Pacers and the Nets price is longer for it.

What kills the bet

A much shorter Brooklyn price. At +101 or longer the Nets are a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers held at -270, the Nets would stay a bet even as favourites down to -268. The gap is wide enough that the line has a long way to travel.

For the Pacers to become the bet, they would have to be +150 or longer whatever Brooklyn’s price, or +378 or longer against the Nets at +220. They are -270.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 25 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Mikel Brown Jr. (rest) and Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder) out for Brooklyn. For Indiana it has T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard (knee) and Johnny Furphy (knee) out, and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) day-to-day. None of these changes our number. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Brooklyn a 45.1% chance of losing. The case is that +220 pays more than that risk warrants, on last season’s evidence.

The total and the spread

The total is 231.5, over -108 and under -112. The Nets’ home games went over 231.5 in 17 of 41, a 41.5% rate, and the Pacers’ road games in 18 of 41, 43.9%. Brooklyn’s home games averaged 223.4 points, Indiana’s road games 232.6. Across all 82 games the counts were 27 for Brooklyn and 40 for Indiana.

The two venue rates average to 42.7% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6% and the under at 50.4%, so our count leans to the under by 6.9 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Pacers -7.5 at -105 and Nets +7.5 at -115; it opened Pacers -5.5. Last season the Nets beat this line in 19 of 41 home games, and the Pacers beat it in 3 of 41 road games. Averaged, Nets +7.5 lands 69.5% of the time against 51.1% priced, a gap of 18.4 points toward Brooklyn. That is a lean on the same side, never a second bet. One bet on this game: the Nets at +220.

Pacers at Nets, Sunday 25 October, 6:00 PM ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 25 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 25 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.