Pacers vs 76ers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the 76ers on the moneyline. Our rating gives Philadelphia at home 85.1%; the price gives them 68.8%.

The Indiana Pacers are +208 and the Philadelphia 76ers -253 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 31.2% for Indiana and 68.8% for Philadelphia. Our number is 85.1% for the 76ers, a gap of 16.3 points. We bet at 5.

How 85.1% is reached

Our number comes from a team rating. Every game since the start of 2025-26 moves a team up after a win and down after a loss. It moves more for a wide margin and more against a strong opponent. The rating also moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games.

The 76ers rate 1574.2, 11th of 30. The Pacers rate 1371.0, 23rd of 30. The league average is 1500, and the home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points. The rating was built on 15 November 2026 at 00:38 UTC. It holds 13 of this season’s 76ers games and 12 of the Pacers’. Those inputs give Philadelphia 85.1% and Indiana 14.9%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -253 and +208 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the 76ers are 68.8% and the Pacers 31.2%.

There is a second rule. We never bet a side the market gives less than 40%. On underdogs our number has not beaten the price over the two seasons it was tested on. Indiana at 31.2% would sit under that line even if the gap pointed its way.

This season so far

Philadelphia is 10-3, 5-2 at home. The 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 123-112 on Thursday 12 November. Indiana is 5-8, 3-3 on the road, and beat the New York Knicks 106-104 on Friday 13 November. These results are inside the rating.

Who plays is outside it. The rating reads scores, not rosters. That is the main limit on 85.1%, and the injury list below shows why it matters here.

Philadelphia at home, Indiana on the road

Last season’s home and road splits are not the source of our number. They are context. Averaged as a home win rate and a road loss rate, they would put Philadelphia at 68.3%, almost exactly the market.

At home in 2025-26 the 76ers went 23-18. They scored 115.4 points a game and allowed 116.5, a margin of -1.1. The Pacers went 8-33 on the road, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6, a margin of -10.6. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so no game is left out of these splits.

The other halves: Philadelphia went 22-19 on the road, scoring 116.4 and allowing 115.6. Indiana went 11-30 at home, scoring 113.8 and allowing 119.2.

The season around it

The 76ers finished 2025-26 at 45-37, the 7th seed in the East. They scored 115.9 a game and allowed 116.1, a point difference of -0.2. They won 26 games by 10 or more and lost 20 that way. In games decided by 5 or fewer they were 10-10, with 7 overtime games. In the playoffs they beat the Boston Celtics 4-3, then lost to the New York Knicks 4-0.

The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the East, and missed the playoffs. They scored 112.4 and allowed 120.4, a difference of -8.0 a game. They won 7 games by 10 or more and lost 38 by that much. In close games they were 10-12, with 2 overtime games.

Philadelphia won all four meetings. In Philadelphia it won 115-105 on 12 December 2025 and 113-104 on 19 January 2026. In Indiana it won 135-114 on 24 February 2026 and 105-94 on 10 April 2026. The rating reads every game since the start of 2025-26, so all four are in it.

Pick: 76ers -253

Bet the 76ers on the moneyline at -253. The gap is 16.3 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.

The line read 76ers -253 and Pacers +208 on 15 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.

What kills the bet

A shorter Philadelphia price kills it. At -403 or longer, the 76ers are a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at +208, the 76ers stay a bet all the way to -2000.

The Pacers cannot become the bet at any price that matters. While the market gives them under 40% with the margin out, about +150 or longer, the long-shot rule makes them no bet. That holds however wide the gap is.

ESPN’s game page, read 15 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, lists Philadelphia without Joel Embiid (foot), Dominick Barlow (back), Adem Bona (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles). Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (knee). Andrew Nembhard (hip), T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Aaron Nesmith (hand) are day-to-day. Our method does not adjust for the list, so it does not change 85.1%. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 222.5, over -110 and under -110. Philadelphia’s home games went over 222.5 in 25 of 41, and Indiana’s road games did in 30 of 41. Over the full season the counts were 52 of 82 and 59 of 82. The 76ers’ home games averaged 231.9 points, and the Pacers’ road games averaged 232.6.

The two venue rates are 61.0% and 73.2%, which average to 67.1% for the over. The market prices it at 50.0%, so our count leans over by 17.1 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is 76ers -6.5 at -112 and Pacers +6.5 at -108, unchanged from the open. Philadelphia beat this line in 15 of 41 home games. Indiana beat it in 13 of 41 road games. Our count gives 76ers -6.5 52.4% against 50.4% priced. That is a gap of 2.0 points, a lean on the same side and too small to matter. One bet on this game: the 76ers at -253.

Pacers at 76ers, Sunday 15 November, 1:00 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 15 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Ratings built 15 November 2026, 00:38 UTC.