Knicks vs Raptors Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Raptors. Our number makes Toronto close to a coin flip, but the market has them under 40%, and we do not back sides that long.

The New York Knicks are -169 and the Toronto Raptors +142 at DraftKings, read 15 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC. With the margin out, that is 60.3% for New York and 39.7% for Toronto. Our number gives the Raptors 49.4%, a gap of 9.7 points toward Toronto against a threshold of 5. The gap clears the threshold. The price fails the long-shot rule.

How 49.4% is reached

Every team carries a rating built from every game since the start of 2025-26. A win moves it up and a loss moves it down, by more for a wide margin and by more against a strong opponent. It moves fast enough that a team playing better or worse than before shows within a few games. The home team gets a fixed edge of 100 rating points.

The Raptors are rated 1476.0, 19th of 30. The Knicks are rated 1580.3, 10th of 30. An average team is 1500. The rating was built at 00:38 UTC on 15 November 2026 and holds 12 games of this season for each team. With Toronto’s home edge in, it gives the Raptors 49.4% and the Knicks 50.6%.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -169 and +142 the pair comes to 104.1%. Taken out, the Knicks are 60.3% and the Raptors 39.7%.

A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points, and never when the market gives that side under 40%. Over the two seasons the method was tested on, our number did not beat the price on underdogs, so a gap on an underdog is not trusted. Toronto at 39.7% sits just under the line.

For reference, last season’s home and road records alone would put Toronto at 52.4%. That figure is shown for context only; the call uses the rating.

This season so far

The Raptors are 5-7, 2-3 at home and 4-3 against the East. They lost 123-112 at the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday 12 November. All 12 of those games are in the rating.

The Knicks are 6-6, 2-3 on the road and 6-6 against the East. Their last game was a 106-104 loss at the Indiana Pacers on Friday 13 November, the night before this line was read. Those 12 games are in the rating too, so this season counts here in a way last season’s records do not.

Toronto at home, New York on the road

Last season the Raptors went 24-17 at Scotiabank Arena, a 58.5% home win rate. They scored 115.3 points a game there and allowed 110.8, a margin of 4.5. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road, scoring 113.6 and allowing 111.0, a margin of 2.6, with a 46.3% road loss rate. These splits are context; the rating does not read them.

The other halves: New York went 30-10 at home, scoring 119.0 and allowing 109.0, a margin of 10.0. Toronto went 22-19 on the road, scoring 114.0 and allowing 112.8, a margin of 1.2. The Knicks played one game at a neutral site, which is in neither split; the Raptors played none.

The season around it

The Knicks finished 2025-26 at 53-29, the third seed in the East. They scored 116.5 and allowed 110.1, a difference of 6.4 points a game. The Raptors finished 46-36, the fifth seed, scoring 114.6 and allowing 111.8, a difference of 2.8.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New York went 11-5 and Toronto 7-5. The Knicks won 32 games by 10 or more and lost 19 by that much; the Raptors’ counts were 33 and 23. Toronto played 4 overtime games, New York 2.

In the playoffs Toronto lost a seven-game series 3-4 to the Cleveland Cavaliers. New York beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0, the Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.

The Knicks won all five meetings last season. In Toronto they won 117-101 on 9 December 2025, 119-92 on 28 January 2026 and 111-95 on 3 March 2026. In New York they won 116-94 on 30 November 2025 and 112-95 on 10 April 2026. Because the rating reads every game since the start of 2025-26, all five are in our number.

Pick: No bet

No bet. The gap is 9.7 points toward the Raptors, against a threshold of 5, but the market gives Toronto 39.7% and the floor is 40%.

The line read Raptors +142 and Knicks -169 on 15 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Raptors +133 and Knicks -158, when the market gave Toronto 41.2% and New York 58.8%. Since opening it has moved toward the Knicks, who now get 1.5 points more.

Our view is that +142 is a fair price here. The method’s own record on underdogs over two seasons says not to trust the 9.7-point gap. Toronto lost all five games to this opponent last season, and three Raptors are listed out tonight. The rating sees results, not who is missing.

What kills the bet

A shorter Toronto price brings the bet back. Whatever the Knicks price, the Raptors are a bet at +125 or longer, as long as the market keeps them at 40% or more with the margin out. With the Knicks at -169, Toronto is a bet from -101 or longer, under the same 40% floor. At about +150 or longer, Toronto is never a bet, however wide the gap.

The Knicks are a bet at +120 or longer whatever the Raptors price. Against the current Raptors +142, no Knicks price works: a Knicks price long enough to open a 5-point gap would put New York under 40%.

ESPN’s game page, read 15 November 2026 at 02:32 UTC, lists Nate Bittle (foot), Scottie Barnes (groin) and Kawhi Leonard (knee) out for Toronto, and Kevin McCullar Jr. (illness) day-to-day. It lists no injuries for New York. The NBA has no key-player rule in our method, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 217.5, over -110 and under -110. Last season the Raptors’ home games went over 217.5 in 27 of 41, a 65.9% rate, and the Knicks’ road games in 25 of 41, 61.0%. Toronto’s home games averaged 226.1 points and New York’s road games 224.6. Across all 82 games, 50 Raptors games and 51 Knicks games went over.

Our count puts the over at 63.4% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 13.4 points toward the over. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.

The spread is Raptors +4.5 at -110 and Knicks -4.5 at -110; it opened at 3.5. Against this line, the Raptors’ home games beat it in 29 of 41 last season and the Knicks’ road games in 16 of 41. That gives Raptors +4.5 a 65.9% count against 50.0% priced, a gap of 15.9 points. It is a lean on Toronto, from last season’s results, and it is not a bet. On this game we pass.

Knicks at Raptors, Sunday 15 November, 6:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. This season’s records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 15 November 2026, 02:32 UTC. Ratings built 15 November 2026, 00:38 UTC.