Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Grizzlies at +225. Our number gives Memphis on the road 34.5%; the price gives them 29.5%.

The Memphis Grizzlies are +225 and the Portland Trail Blazers -278 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 29.5% for Memphis and 70.5% for Portland. Last season’s home and road records put Memphis 5.0 points higher than that. We bet at 5, so this call sits exactly on the line.

How 34.5% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two, and Portland none.

The Trail Blazers went 24-17 at Moda Center, a 58.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, a 72.5% road loss rate over 40 games. The midpoint is 65.5% for Portland and 34.5% for Memphis.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At +225 and -278 the pair comes to 104.3%. Taken out, the Grizzlies are 29.5% and the Trail Blazers 70.5%.

Both teams are unbeaten in 2026-27. Memphis is 4-0, 3-0 on the road, and last won 110-105 at the Utah Jazz on Monday 26 October. Portland is 3-0, 1-0 at home, and last won 136-129 at the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday 27 October. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so none of those seven games is in it. A summer of roster changes is not in it either, and that is the main risk in this bet.

Portland at home, Memphis on the road

At home the Trail Blazers scored 118.3 points a game and allowed 114.8, a surplus of 3.5. The Grizzlies on the road scored 113.3 and allowed 121.9, a deficit of 8.6.

The halves the method leaves out: Portland on the road went 18-23, scoring 112.7 and allowing 116.8, a deficit of 4.1. Memphis at home went 13-27, scoring 115.8 and allowing 119.8, a deficit of 4.0. Memphis’s two neutral-site games sit in neither split.

The season around it

The Trail Blazers finished 42-40, seventh in the West, scoring 115.5 and allowing 115.8 a game, a difference of -0.3. They went 11-12 in games decided by 5 points or fewer and played 3 overtimes. They won 23 games by 10 or more and lost 18 by that much. In the playoffs they lost to the San Antonio Spurs 4-1.

The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th in the West, and missed the playoffs. They scored 114.7 and allowed 120.7, a difference of -6.0 a game. They went 7-9 in games decided by 5 or fewer, with 2 overtimes. The split by margin is the sharpest number on their page: 9 wins by 10 or more, 32 losses by 10 or more.

Portland won three of the four meetings. In Portland, the Trail Blazers won 135-115 on Friday 6 February and 122-115 on Saturday 7 February. Those two games are in our number: two of Portland’s 41 home games and two of Memphis’s 40 road games. In Memphis, the Grizzlies won 119-96 on Sunday 7 December and the Trail Blazers won 122-114 on Wednesday 4 March. Those two are in neither half.

Pick: Grizzlies +225

Bet the Grizzlies on the moneyline at +225. The gap is 5.0 points toward Memphis, against a threshold of 5. It clears the rule with nothing to spare.

The line read Grizzlies +225 and Trail Blazers -278 on 29 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Grizzlies +230 and Trail Blazers -285. Since the open the market gives Memphis 0.5 points more, 29.5% against 29.0%.

What kills the bet

Any shorter Memphis price. With Portland at -278, the Grizzlies are a bet at +225 or longer, which is the current price. At +239 or longer they are a bet whatever Portland is priced at. One more tick toward Memphis and this page would be a pass.

For the Trail Blazers to become the bet, the price would have to collapse. At -153 or longer Portland is a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at +225, Portland would need to be +112 or longer. It is -278.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 29 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Shaedon Sharpe (knee) and Chris Youngblood (ankle) out for Portland. Memphis has no one listed. Our number reads last season’s results, so neither absence changes it. Check the lineups before you bet.

Our number still gives Memphis a 65.5% chance of losing. The case is that +225 pays more than that risk warrants, by the smallest margin our rule accepts.

The total and the spread

The total is 233.5, over -110 and under -110. The Trail Blazers’ home games went over 233.5 in 22 of 41, a 53.7% rate. The Grizzlies’ road games went over in 20 of 40, a 50.0% rate. Across all 82 games, Portland’s went over 38 times and Memphis’s 41. Portland’s home games averaged 233.1 points, Memphis’s road games 235.2.

Averaged, the over comes to 51.8% against 50.0% priced, a gap of 1.8 points. That is under the threshold of 5. Pass on the total.

The spread is Trail Blazers -7.5 at -110 and Grizzlies +7.5 at -110, unchanged from the open. Portland at home beat -7.5 in 15 of 41 games. Memphis on the road beat +7.5 in 19 of 40. Averaged, Portland -7.5 lands 44.5% of the time against 50.0% priced, a gap of 5.5 points toward Grizzlies +7.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so that is a lean on the same side, not a second bet. One bet on this game: the Grizzlies at +225.

Grizzlies at Trail Blazers, Thursday 29 October, 10:00 PM ET, Moda Center, Portland. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 29 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 29 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.