NBA
NBA · Thursday 29 October
Kings vs Pelicans Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Kings. Our number gives Sacramento on the road 37.8% and the price gives them 33.1%: a 4.7-point gap, short of the 5 we bet at.
The Sacramento Kings are +190 and the New Orleans Pelicans -230 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 33.1% for Sacramento and 66.9% for New Orleans. Our number has the Kings 4.7 points higher than the market does. The rule is a bet at 5 points or more, so this prediction is a pass, and the price is close to right.
How 62.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so no game is left out of either half.
The Pelicans went 17-24 at Smoothie King Center, a 41.5% home win rate over 41 games. The Kings went 7-34 on the road, an 82.9% road loss rate over 41 games. The midpoint is 62.2% for New Orleans and 37.8% for Sacramento.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -230 and +190 they add to 104.2%. Taken out, the Pelicans are 66.9% and the Kings 33.1%. Ours against theirs is 4.7 points toward Sacramento.
Both teams are 0-4 this season. New Orleans is 0-2 at home and lost 104-91 to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday 28 October. Sacramento is 0-2 on the road and lost 130-103 at the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday 27 October. Our number reads 2025-26 only, so none of these eight games is in it. Four games each is too few to say anything about either team.
New Orleans at home, Sacramento on the road
At home the Pelicans scored 118.2 points a game and allowed 119.5, a margin of -1.3. On the road the Kings scored 109.4 and allowed 122.2, a margin of -12.8. Those are the two halves the method uses, and the second one carries the price.
The halves the method leaves out: New Orleans on the road went 9-32, scoring 112.9 and allowing 120.5. Sacramento at home went 15-26, scoring 112.6 and allowing 119.8.
The season around it
Over the full 2025-26 season the Pelicans finished 26-56, 11th in the Western Conference, with a point difference of -4.5 a game. The Kings finished 22-60, 14th, at -10.0 a game. Neither team made the playoffs.
Sacramento lost 40 games by 10 or more points and won 6 by that much. New Orleans lost 25 by 10 or more and won 15. In games decided by 5 points or fewer the Kings went 10-11 and the Pelicans 6-13. The Pelicans played 5 overtime games, the Kings 3.
New Orleans won two of the three meetings. In New Orleans, the Pelicans won 120-94 on 9 February; that game is in our number, one of the Pelicans’ 41 home games and one of the Kings’ 41 road games. In Sacramento, the Pelicans won 133-123 on 5 March and the Kings won 117-113 on 3 April; those two are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on this game. The gap is 4.7 points toward the Kings, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Kings +190 and Pelicans -230 on 29 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Kings +160 and Pelicans -192, when the market gave New Orleans 63.1%. Since opening it has moved toward the Pelicans, who now get 3.8 points more than at the open.
That move is what keeps this a pass. The longer Sacramento price closed some of the gap, and 4.7 points is still not 5.
What kills the bet
A longer Kings price makes it a bet. At +205 or longer the Kings are a bet whatever New Orleans is priced at; with the Pelicans at -230, they are a bet from +194.
For the Pelicans to become the bet, the price has to come a long way. At -133 or longer they are a bet whatever Sacramento is priced at. Against the current Kings price of +190, they become a bet at +117 or longer.
ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 29 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC, has Keegan Murray (ankle), Ben Simmons (Achilles), Maxime Raynaud (knee) and Dylan Cardwell (calf) out for Sacramento. For New Orleans it has Yves Missi (knee) out and Jordan Poole (ankle) day-to-day. The list is not in our number and does not change the call. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 236.5, over -112 and under -108. The Pelicans’ home games went over 236.5 in 18 of 41, a 43.9% rate. The Kings’ road games went over in 15 of 41, a 36.6% rate. Across all games it was 37 of 82 for New Orleans and 30 of 82 for Sacramento. Pelicans home games averaged 237.7 points; Kings road games averaged 231.6.
The two venue rates average 40.2% for the over. With the margin removed, the market prices the over at 50.4% and the under at 49.6%, so our count leans to the under by 10.2 points. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is Pelicans -5.5 at -118 and Kings +5.5 at -102, unchanged from the open at 5.5. The Pelicans beat this line in 13 of 41 home games, and the Kings beat it in 14 of 41 road games. Averaged, Pelicans -5.5 lands 48.8% of the time against 51.7% priced, a gap of 3.0 points toward Kings +5.5. That is a lean too, and it sits on the same side our moneyline number favours. No bet on this game at these prices: the Kings need +194 for the gap to reach 5.
Kings at Pelicans, Thursday 29 October, 8:00 PM ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 29 October 2026, 13:01 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records, results and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 29 October 2026, 13:01 UTC.