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The Golden Knights won 20 of 41 at home last season. At +205, take the Blackhawks.
The Vegas Golden Knights are -250 against the Chicago Blackhawks at +205 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, the Blackhawks’ chance is 31.5%. Our number gives them 43.9%. The gap is 12.4 points, and the threshold for a bet is 5.
How the number is built
The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.
The Golden Knights went 20-12-9 at home: 20 wins, 12 regulation losses and 9 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Blackhawks went 15-20-6 on the road and lost 26 of 41, a 63.4% road loss rate. The average is 56.1% for the Golden Knights and 43.9% for the Blackhawks.
The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add to more than 100%. Removed from -250 and +205, it leaves the Golden Knights at 68.5%.
It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and this page has no measure of what changed. The only evidence in hand is last season, 41 home games for the Golden Knights and 41 road games for the Blackhawks.
The Golden Knights at home, the Blackhawks on the road
The Golden Knights at home scored 3.56 goals a game and allowed 3.10. The Blackhawks on the road scored 2.59 and allowed 3.41. On goals, the home side was clearly the better one.
The method counts wins, and the Golden Knights at home did not turn those goals into wins at the rate the price assumes. Nine of their 21 home losses came after regulation. Across the season they went 39-26-17 with 95 points, reached extra time in 26 games, and went 16-10-17 in games decided by one goal.
The Blackhawks finished 29-39-14 with 72 points and were outscored by 0.75 goals a game. The Golden Knights outscored opponents by 0.18 a game, then won playoff series against the Utah Mammoth and the Anaheim Ducks, both 4-2, and the Colorado Avalanche 4-0, before losing 4-2 to the Carolina Hurricanes. The Blackhawks did not reach the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26 and the Golden Knights won two: 4-3 in a shootout at home on 3 December and 4-0 at home on 15 March. The Blackhawks won 3-2 in overtime at home on 5 January.
The price
The Golden Knights opened at -250 and the Blackhawks at +205, and neither had moved when read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.
A -250 price asks the Golden Knights to win about 7 games in 10. At home last season they won 20 of 41, fewer than 5 in 10.
Pick: Blackhawks moneyline
Chicago Blackhawks +205. Our number is 43.9% for the Blackhawks and the market’s is 31.5%, a 12.4-point gap against a 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games from last season: the Golden Knights’ 41 at home and the Blackhawks’ 41 on the road. The pick is a 29-win team, and the case for it is only that the price asks more of the Golden Knights’ home record than that record gave.
What changes it
A shorter price on the Blackhawks. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Blackhawks at +147 still leave a 5.1-point gap and the bet stands. At +146 the gap is 4.9 and it is a pass.
The lineups are the other thing. This page states nothing about who plays on 29 September, and a summer of changes could move either team’s rates a long way. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -125 and under +105. The Golden Knights’ games went over 5.5 in 47 of 82 and the Blackhawks’ in 42 of 82. The Golden Knights’ home games averaged 6.66 goals, the Blackhawks’ road games 6.00.
The two over rates, 57.3% and 51.2%, average 54.3%. The over at -125 is priced at 53.2% with the margin removed, a gap of 1.0 point. Pass on the total.
The puck line has the Golden Knights -1.5 at +105 and the Blackhawks +1.5 at -125. The Golden Knights won by two goals or more in 23 of 82 games. The Blackhawks lost by two or more in 31 of 82. Averaged, Golden Knights -1.5 comes in 32.9% of the time against 46.8% priced, a gap of 13.8 points. Lean Blackhawks +1.5 at -125, as a lean only; the moneyline is the call this page bets.
Blackhawks at Golden Knights, Tuesday 29 September, 10:30 PM ET, T-Mobile Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
