NHL
NHL · Monday 16 November
Canadiens vs Rangers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Canadiens to win at Madison Square Garden. With Igor Shesterkin out, our number makes Montreal a 65.9% winner against the market’s 48.9%.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, Monday 16 November, 7:30 PM ET. The price has this close to even with the Rangers slightly ahead. Our number has the Canadiens clearly ahead, and the 17.0-point gap between the two is the whole argument.
Canadiens and Rangers this season
The Canadiens are 12-4-4, and 7-1-1 on the road. They lost 4-1 at home to the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday 14 November. That loss closed a five-game run they won 3 of:
- W 5-4 in overtime vs Utah Mammoth, Thursday 5 November
- W 4-2 at Toronto Maple Leafs, Saturday 7 November
- L 2-1 in overtime vs Minnesota Wild, Tuesday 10 November
- W 5-2 at Boston Bruins, Thursday 12 November
- L 4-1 vs Colorado Avalanche, Saturday 14 November
Montreal scores 3.30 goals a game and allows 3.05. It takes 27.8 shots a game and allows 28.2. The power play is at 13.3% and the penalty kill at 77.9%. Cole Caufield leads the team with 12 goals and 19 points, and Lane Hutson leads with 15 assists. Jacob Fowler has played 12 games in goal with a .926 save percentage, a 2.13 goals-against average and 2 shutouts. Jakub Dobes has played 8, at .852 and 3.93.
The Rangers are 12-8-1, and 8-2-0 at home. They won 5-1 at the Vancouver Canucks on Friday 13 November, their fourth win in five:
- W 3-2 vs Philadelphia Flyers, Thursday 5 November
- W 4-3 at Seattle Kraken, Saturday 7 November
- L 3-1 at Edmonton Oilers, Monday 9 November
- W 3-1 at Calgary Flames, Wednesday 11 November
- W 5-1 at Vancouver Canucks, Friday 13 November
New York scores 3.05 a game and allows 2.71. It takes 26.0 shots and allows 26.5. The power play runs at 20.7% and the penalty kill at 89.1%. Alexis Lafreniere leads with 10 goals. Adam Fox leads with 21 assists and 23 points. Dylan Garand has played 15 games in goal at .910 and 2.37, with 1 shutout. Shesterkin played 5 at .927 and 1.79 before going on injured reserve. Joonas Korpisalo has played 2, at .931 and 2.01.
ESPN’s injury list has five Rangers on injured reserve: Shesterkin (knee), Alberts Smits (upper body), Sean Durzi (lower body), Joe Veleno (lower body) and Aidan Thompson (undisclosed). For Montreal, Chris Kreider is out with a lower-body injury. Mike Matheson is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Ivan Demidov (ankle), Sam Montembeault (lower body) and Bryce Pickford (undisclosed) are on injured reserve.
None of these figures is in our number. The 8-2-0 home start is the one that cuts against the pick, and the method does not see it.
The prices
The Rangers are -115 and the Canadiens -105 at DraftKings, read 15 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC. The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. Here the pair comes to 104.7%. With the margin out, the Rangers are 51.1% and the Canadiens 48.9%.
The line opened the other way round: Rangers -105, Canadiens -115. At the open the market gave the Rangers 48.9%. Since opening it has moved toward the Rangers by 2.2 points.
Shesterkin out
Shesterkin is on injured reserve with a knee injury. The ESPN injury list dates the entry 11 October 2026, 21:06 UTC, gives 15 September 2027 as his return date, and was read 15 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC. When a team’s starting goalie is out, our method is run again on the games without him. He appeared in 51 of the Rangers’ 82 games in 2025-26, ahead of Jonathan Quick’s 25, Spencer Martin’s 6 and Dylan Garand’s 3. He started 26 of the 41 home games the method reads.
In the 15 home games he did not play, the Rangers went 4-9-2, a 26.67% home win rate. The minimum for an NHL re-run is 10 games at that venue without the goalie, and 15 clears it. Taking him out makes New York weaker at home, and the gap wider.
Pick: Canadiens -105
Bet the Canadiens on the moneyline at -105. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. The gap here is 17.0 points toward Montreal on the Rangers’ home games without Shesterkin, and 13.3 on their full home season.
The line read Rangers -115 and Canadiens -105 on 15 November 2026 at 17:32 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Rangers -105 and Canadiens -115.
How 65.9% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Games at neutral sites are left out. The method never bets a side the market gives less than 40%, because it has no adjustment for the strength of the opponent. The Canadiens at 48.9% are clear of that line.
The Canadiens went 24-9-8 on the road in 2025-26, a 41.5% road loss rate. Average that with the Rangers’ 26.67% at home without Shesterkin and the Rangers are 34.1%, the Canadiens 65.9%. On the Rangers’ full home season, 14-20-7 and a 34.1% home win rate, the Rangers come out at 37.8%. Both versions point to Montreal.
The halves the method leaves out point the same way. The Rangers went 19-19-2 on the road, a 47.5% win rate, scoring 3.17 a game and allowing 3.12. The Canadiens went 24-15-2 at home, 58.5%, scoring 3.34 and allowing 3.10.
Last season and the meetings
The two finished last season far apart. Montreal went 48-24-10 with 106 points and outscored opponents by 27. It then beat Tampa Bay 4-3 and Buffalo 4-3 in the playoffs before losing 4-1 to Carolina. New York went 34-39-9 with 77 points, was outscored by 12, and missed the playoffs.
The Canadiens were strong in close games, 23-6-10 in one-goal games, and won 14 of the 24 that went past regulation. The Rangers went 11-12-9 in one-goal games and won 9 of their 18 past 60 minutes. Montreal won by two goals or more 25 times and lost by two or more 18 times. New York won by two or more 23 times and lost by two or more 27 times.
The Rangers won two of the three meetings. They won 4-3 in Montreal on Saturday 18 October 2025, a game in neither half of our number. The other two were played at Madison Square Garden and sit in Montreal’s road half: the Rangers won 5-4 in overtime on Saturday 13 December 2025, and the Canadiens won 3-2 on Thursday 2 April 2026.
What kills the bet
The main risk is a shorter Montreal price. At -156 or longer, the Canadiens are a bet whatever the Rangers are priced at. Against the Rangers at -115, they stay a bet down to -505.
The Rangers do not become the bet on these numbers. At any price where our gap would favour them, the market’s chance for them is under 40%, and the long-shot rule makes that no bet. Neither side is ever a bet at about +150 or longer.
The rest is on the ice. The Rangers’ 8-2-0 home start and Garand’s .910 in 15 games are this season, and neither is in our number. Kreider is out and Matheson is day-to-day for Montreal. Which of Fowler or Dobes starts matters: their save percentages this season are .926 and .852. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Rangers’ games went over 6.5 in 32 of 82 last season, 39.0%. The Canadiens’ went over in 44 of 82, 53.7%. The Rangers’ home games averaged 5.61 goals, Montreal’s road games 6.71.
Averaged, our over is 46.3%. With the margin out the market has the over at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%. Our number leans over by 1.5 points, below the 5-point threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, the Rangers are -1.5 at +215 and the Canadiens +1.5 at -265, which is 30.4% and 69.6% without the margin. The Rangers won by two or more in 23 of 82 games last season, and the Canadiens lost by two or more in 18 of 82. Our number for Rangers -1.5 is 25.0%, a gap of 5.4 points toward Canadiens +1.5. The method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Canadiens at -105.
Canadiens at Rangers, Monday 16 November, 7:30 PM ET, Madison Square Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 15 November 2026, 17:32 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; the Rangers’ goalie appearances from ESPN box scores. This season’s records, last five games, team stats, leaders, goalies and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 15 November 2026, 17:32 UTC.