NHL
NHL · Wednesday 4 November
Sharks vs Kings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Take the Sharks to win in Los Angeles. Our number makes San Jose a 53.7% winner; the price says 40.0%.
The San Jose Sharks are +140 and the Los Angeles Kings -166 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 40.0% for San Jose and 60.0% for Los Angeles. The price makes the home side a clear favourite. Our number reverses it.
How 53.7% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Overtime and shootout wins count as wins. Neutral-site games are left out of both rates.
The Kings went 15-17-9 at crypto.com Arena, a 36.6% home win rate over 41 games. The Sharks went 18-21-2 on the road, a 56.1% road loss rate. Average the two and the Kings are 46.3%, the Sharks 53.7%. That is 13.7 points better for San Jose than the price, against a threshold of 5.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -166 and +140 they come to 104.1%. Taken out, the Kings are 60.0% and the Sharks 40.0%.
Every input is from 2025-26. This season is outside the method, and neither team has started well. The Kings are 4-7-2, 1-4-0 at home, and lost 3-2 to Buffalo on Saturday 31 October. Darcy Kuemper has played eight of their games and Anton Forsberg six. The Sharks are 7-8-1, 4-3-1 on the road, and lost 2-1 to Calgary on Monday 2 November. Yaroslav Askarov has played ten of their games and Alex Nedeljkovic six.
Los Angeles at home, San Jose on the road
The Kings at home scored 2.63 a game and allowed 3.12, a deficit of 0.49. The Sharks on the road scored 3.05 and allowed 3.66, a deficit of 0.61. Both halves of the method lost more than they won on goals. The Kings’ half lost more often in the standings, and the standings are what our number counts.
The halves the method leaves out run the other way. Los Angeles on the road went 20-10-11, a 48.8% win rate, scoring 2.85 and allowing 2.90. San Jose at home went 21-14-6, 51.2%, scoring 3.07 and allowing 3.46. The Kings were the better team away from their own arena last season, and that half is not in our number.
Over the full season Los Angeles finished 35-27-20 with 90 points and a goal difference of -22, then lost its playoff series 0-4 to the Colorado Avalanche. San Jose went 39-35-8 with 86 points, was outscored by 41, and missed the playoffs.
The Kings lived in close games. They went 21-6-20 in one-goal games, and 33 of their 82 went past regulation, of which they won 13. The Sharks went 22-5-8 in one-goal games and won 12 of their 20 past 60 minutes. San Jose lost by two goals or more in 30 of 82; Los Angeles in 21.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, all one-goal games. The Kings won 4-3 in San Jose on 28 October 2025, and the Sharks won 4-3 in a shootout there on 20 November. Those two are in neither half of our number. The one game in Los Angeles, a 4-3 Sharks win in overtime on 7 January 2026, is in both halves.
Pick: Sharks +140
Bet the Sharks on the moneyline at +140. The gap is 13.7 points toward San Jose, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Sharks +140 and Kings -166 on 3 November 2026 at 16:33 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, +140 and -166, so the market’s chances have not moved since opening.
What kills the bet
A shorter San Jose price. At +106 or longer the Sharks are a bet whatever Los Angeles is priced at. Against the Kings at -166, they stay a bet down to -146.
For the Kings to become the bet, they would have to be +142 or longer whatever San Jose is priced at, or +241 or longer against the Sharks at +140. They are -166.
The rest is on the ice. ESPN’s injury list has Adrian Kempe day-to-day for Los Angeles, with Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Fiala, Alex Turcotte and Jakub Dvorak on injured reserve. San Jose has Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg, Quentin Musty and goalie Kyle Keyser on injured reserve. Keyser is the only goalie on either list, and the Sharks’ games this season have gone to Askarov and Nedeljkovic. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 6.5, over +105 and under -125. The Kings’ games went over 6.5 in 31 of 82, a 37.8% rate; the Sharks’ in 42 of 82, 51.2%. Los Angeles’ home games averaged 5.75 goals and San Jose’s road games 6.71.
Our number puts the over at 44.5%. With the margin removed the over is priced at 46.8% and the under at 53.2%, a lean of 2.2 points to the under. That is below the threshold. Pass on the total.
On the puck line, Kings -1.5 is +154 and Sharks +1.5 is -185, which is 37.8% and 62.2% without the margin. Last season the Kings won by two goals or more in 14 of 82 games, and the Sharks lost by two or more in 30 of 82. Our number has Kings -1.5 landing 26.8% of the time, a gap of 10.9 points toward Sharks +1.5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the Sharks at +140.
Sharks at Kings, Wednesday 4 November, 10:00 PM ET, crypto.com Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 3 November 2026, 16:33 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. Injury list, 2026-27 records and goalie appearances this season: ESPN’s game page, read 3 November 2026, 16:33 UTC.