Stars at Penguins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Our number has the Stars at 54.9%. They are a bet at +101 or longer, the Penguins at +150 or longer.

No line has been posted for Dallas at Pittsburgh as of 28 September 2026. Our number puts the Pittsburgh Penguins’ win chance at 45.1% and the Dallas Stars’ at 54.9%. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s are 5 points or more apart, and the market has not spoken yet.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Penguins went 20-13-8 at home last season: 20 wins, 13 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 48.8% home win rate over 41 games. The Stars went 24-9-8 on the road, so they lost 17 of 41, a 41.5% road loss rate. Both samples are 41 games, so the average is 20 home wins plus 17 road losses, 37 of 82: 45.1% for the Penguins, 54.9% for the Stars.

The figures stop at last season. The 2026-27 season began on 29 September, and none of it is in them. Nothing on this page measures what changed over the summer.

The Penguins at home, the Stars on the road

At home, the Penguins scored 3.66 goals a game and allowed 3.49. The Stars on the road scored 3.51 and allowed 2.78. The Penguins scored 0.15 a game more. The Stars allowed 0.71 fewer, and that is the larger gap.

The Penguins lost a lot of games late. They had 16 losses after regulation across the season, 8 at home and 8 on the road, and 23 of their 82 went past 60 minutes. In one-goal games they went 12-7-16. The method counts each of those 16 as a loss.

The Stars were the opposite in close games. They went 28-6-12 in 46 one-goal games, and won 24 on the road against 26 at home.

Across the full season the Stars finished 50-20-12 with 112 points and outscored opponents by 0.64 goals a game. They lost their one playoff series, 4-2 to the Minnesota Wild. The Penguins finished 41-25-16 with 98 points and outscored opponents by 0.30 a game. They also lost their one series 4-2, to the Philadelphia Flyers.

The teams met twice and the Stars won both: 3-2 in a shootout in Dallas in December, and 6-3 in Pittsburgh in March. Two games prove nothing.

Pick: no bet until a line is posted

Our number is 45.1% for the Penguins and 54.9% for the Stars. The market’s figure is the moneyline with the margin removed. The margin is the few points a book builds into both prices so that they add up to more than 100%.

For the Stars to be a bet, the market has to rate them at 49.9% or less. With no margin, that is a price of +101: the Stars would have to be the underdog. For the Penguins, the market has to rate them at 40.1% or less, which is +150.

Taking the margin out only lowers a side’s chance. So a posted price at or past either of those is a bet whatever the other side reads. A slightly shorter one can clear the threshold too, depending on the pair, and the full page works that out from the posted line.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Penguins and 41 on the road for the Stars, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. If the market, with the margin removed, rates the Stars anywhere between 49.9% and 59.9%, neither side is a bet and the call is a pass. The full page re-reads the line on the day of the game.

The summer. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26, and nothing here says who is in either lineup on 10 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Stars at Penguins, Saturday 10 October, 7:00 PM ET, PPG Paints Arena. No line posted as of 28 September 2026. Results: ESPN, read 28 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.