Islanders vs Maple Leafs Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

Bet the Islanders at +120. The price makes Toronto the favourite; our number makes New York one, 53.7% to 46.3%, a 10.0-point gap.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are -142 and the New York Islanders +120 at DraftKings. With the margin taken out, that is Toronto 56.3% and New York 43.7%. Our number has the Maple Leafs at 46.3%. That is a different favourite, and the price is leaning on a Toronto home record that did not earn it.

Where 46.3% comes from

The number averages two 2025-26 rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A win in overtime or a shootout counts as a win. Neutral-site games sit in neither half, and neither team played one.

Toronto went 18-15-8 at Scotiabank Arena: 18 wins, 15 regulation losses and 8 losses after regulation. That is a 43.9% home win rate over 41 games. The Islanders went 21-17-3 on the road, so they lost 20 of 41, a 48.8% road loss rate. Average the two and Toronto is 46.3%, New York 53.7%.

Both halves point the same way. The Maple Leafs won fewer than half their home games, and the Islanders won more than half of theirs on the road.

The margin is what a book adds to both prices so they sum to more than 100%. At -142 and +120 they sum to 104.1%. Taken out, the Maple Leafs are 56.3% and the Islanders 43.7%.

The objection is that all of this is last season. It is: 41 Toronto home games and 41 New York road games from 2025-26, and nothing from this one. Toronto is 3-3-2 so far and lost 5-4 in overtime to the Buffalo Sabres at home on Thursday. The Islanders are 3-3-1 and lost 2-1 in a shootout in Ottawa the same night. Both get Friday off. These two opened their seasons against each other on 30 September, a 2-1 Toronto win at Scotiabank Arena. None of those games is in the figures.

Toronto at home, New York on the road

The goals tell the same story, less loudly. At home the Maple Leafs scored 3.29 a game and allowed 3.54, outscored by 0.25. The Islanders on the road scored 2.76 and allowed 2.90, outscored by 0.14. Neither half is strong. Toronto’s is the weaker of the two.

The halves the method leaves out: Toronto on the road went 14-21-6, a 34.1% win rate, scoring 2.88 and allowing 3.76. New York at home went 22-17-2, 53.7%, scoring 2.93 and allowing 2.98.

Over the full season the Islanders were the better side. They finished 43-34-5 with 91 points and were outscored by 8. The Maple Leafs finished 32-36-14 with 78 points and were outscored by 46. Neither reached the playoffs.

New York won its close games. The Islanders went 27-11-5 in one-goal games and won 14 of the 19 that went past regulation. Toronto went 14-4-14 in one-goal games, won 9 of 23 past 60 minutes, and won only 18 of its 32 games by two goals or more.

The Islanders won all three meetings in 2025-26. Only one was in Toronto: a 3-1 New York win on 17 March, and that is the one meeting in our number, a game in each half. The 4-3 overtime win on 3 January and the 5-3 win on 9 April were at UBS Arena and fall in neither half.

Pick: Islanders +120

Bet the Islanders on the moneyline at +120. The gap is 10.0 points toward New York, against a threshold of 5.

The line opened at Maple Leafs -142 and Islanders +120 and had not moved when it was read on 16 October 2026 at 15:38 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN.

What kills the bet

A big move toward New York. At +106 or longer the Islanders are a bet whatever Toronto is priced at. With the Maple Leafs at -142, they stay a bet even as a favourite, down to -126.

Toronto would need to be +143 or longer before it became the bet. It is -142.

Lineups are the other unknown. This page states nothing about who plays for either team on 17 October, so check both before you bet.

The total and the puck line

The total is 6.5, over +114 and under -135. The Maple Leafs’ games went over 6.5 in 46 of 82, the Islanders’ in 36 of 82. Toronto’s home games averaged 6.83 goals, New York’s road games 5.66.

That is 56.1% and 43.9%, an average of 50.0% for the over. With the margin out the over is priced at 44.9% and the under at 55.1%, so our number leans to the over by 5.1 points. Our method bets the moneyline only, so this is a lean: over 6.5 at +114.

The puck line points the same way as the pick. Toronto is -1.5 at +180 and New York +1.5 at -218, 34.3% and 65.7% without the margin. The Maple Leafs won by two goals or more in 18 of 82 games; the Islanders lost by two or more in 23 of 82. Averaged, Toronto -1.5 lands 25.0% of the time against 34.3% priced, a gap of 9.3 points toward Islanders +1.5 at -218. A lean on the same side. The one bet on this game is the Islanders at +120.

Islanders at Maple Leafs, Saturday 17 October, 7:00 PM ET, Scotiabank Arena. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 16 October 2026, 15:38 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs; 2026-27 games from ESPN’s team schedules, read 16 October 2026. Nothing here states who is available.