Monday Night Football Wild Card Odds and Picks: Hou vs. Pitt

Keeping with the recent Wild Card Weekend tradition, the NFL will hold a Monday Night Football Playoff game and it’s a compelling one as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans.

It’s been two weeks since the last MNF game, a Week 17 matchup between the Rams and Falcons. Week 18 didn’t have a Monday game as the regular season wrapped up on Sunday Night Football with these same Steelers beating the Ravens for said Playoff berth.

The Texans (12-5) captured the no.5 seed and enter the Playoffs as a Wild Card team for the first time. However, they’ve never won a road Playoff game in their franchise’s brief history. Houston went 5-3 SU on the road this season.

The Steelers (10-7) earned the no.4 seed by winning the AFC North title after defeating the Ravens due to Baltimore’s kicker missing a field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a Playoff game since the 2016 season.

Both teams are looking to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 60. While the Texans have been one of our best value plays all season long, the Steelers’ erratic season has led to us fading them for most of the year. Will that continue this week?

Currently, the Texans are a one-score road favorite, according to the latest NFL betting lines. With that said, let’s dive deeper into the MNF odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our NFL picks for the Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers.

What Channel Is Monday Night Football On?

• Monday Night Football Channel: ESPN
• Monday Night Football Time: 8:15pm ET
• Monday Night Football Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

The Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers will kick off at 8:15pm ET live from the Acrisure Stadium, in Pittsburgh, PA.

Monday Night Football Odds

The following Monday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for MNF and monitor how the lines change up until kickoff.

The visiting Houston Texans opened as a 6.5-point favorite along with being listed at -154 odds. That spread quickly dropped within a few hours to 3.5 points, but the moneyline jumped up to -190 odds. Currently, the Texans are favored by a field goal with a ML in the -150 to -155 range.

The Pittsburgh Steelers opened as a +155 Underdog before seeing their line steadily decline over the week. Currently, Pittsburgh’s moneyline sits between +130 and +135. The Total opened at 39.5 points, and has slowly come down to an O/U of 38 points. A few sportsbooks have the Over-Under at 38.5 points. So, if you think it’s going Under, then shop for the higher Total.

Unfortunately, our Week 17 pick of the LA Rams to win the game, didn’t come to fruition. LA lost to the lowly Falcons 27-24. Atlanta kicked a FG with 21 seconds left in the game to break a 24-24 tie after the Rams made a furious comeback to score 24 points in the second half. The loss snapped our hot streak of 6-1 in the previous seven weeks.  

Speaking of hot streaks, the industry’s best handicapping membership features plenty of handicappers that are poised for a big Playoff run. Not only do these handicappers crush Monday Night Football, but they also hit big each and every week in other sports, as well. 

And, the best part, if that wasn’t already enough of an incentive, is that you can claim your free trial of this membership today.

Score a Touchdown Every Weekend

Join Our Expert NFL Picks

Get Free Trial

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

The following Monday Night Football betting trends include data from last season:

Houston Texans Betting Trends

• 9-0 SU in last nine games
• 5-1 SU in last six road games
• 8-0 SU in last eight AFC games
• 5-2 ATS in last seven games
• 6-2 ATS in last eight January games
• Under is 12-6 in last 18 games

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends

• 4-1 SU in last five games
• 6-1 SU in last seven Monday games
• 6-2 ATS in last eight home games
• 5-2 ATS in last seven January games
• Over is 4-1 in last five games as the Underdog

Monday Night Football Matchup

These two NFL Teams have played against each other eight times and the Pittsburgh Steelers hold a 5-3 series lead. While the Houston Texans won their last matchup (2023), they’re just 1-3 SU at Pittsburgh. The Steelers are also 5-3 ATS in this head-to-head series.

These two franchises (not counting the Houston Oilers) have never played against each other in the Playoffs until now. The Texans have lost three straight games at Pittsburgh, with the last contest coming in 2020. The Steelers won that game 28-21, and have outscored Houston 102-85 in four home contests.

Monday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a look at the participants in this week’s Monday Night Football game, and make our winning NFL picks: 

Houston Texans Monday Night Football

The Houston Texans have a few key advantages in this Wild Card game. On the offensive side of the ball, CJ Stroud and the Texans will face the 29^th ranked pass defense in Pittsburgh who allows 244.9 passing yards per game. That’s 26.9 ypg more than Houston’s average (218.1 ypg).

A good example of Pittsburgh’s fledgling pass defense could be seen in their game against the Lions when Jared Goff threw for 364 yards. While I don’t see Stroud throwing for that many yards, I do see the young QB leading this offensive charge with at least 250 passing yards.

Houston also takes care of the ball as they rank no.2 in the league for fewest turnovers at 0.7 per game. Defensively, the Texans are no.3 in the NFL as they average 1.7 takeaways per game. The 1.0 turnover margin is the second-best mark in the league.

Speaking of the defense, this unit is elite. They rank in the Top 6 for many major statistical categories: 2^nd in fewest points (17.4 ppg), 2^nd in fewest yards (279.1 ypg), 6^th best 3^rd down rate (36.20%), 4^th against the run (93.7 ypg), 6^th against the pass (185.4 ypg), and 8^th best sack rate (8.03%).

In regards to sacks and pressure, Will Anderson Jr. and Daniell Hunter lead the way as this dynamic duo have combined for 27 sacks.

Pittsburgh Steelers Monday Night Football

The Pittsburgh Steelers are happy to get DK Metcalf back. The talented receiver missed the last two games of the regular season due to a suspension for a fan altercation in Detroit during the Week 16 matchup with the Lions.

Metcalf is a key to this offense as he requires double coverage and sees the most targets of any receiving weapon. Aaron Rodgers will need to get the ball out quickly to prevent Houston’s pass rush from wrecking the game. Fortunately, this is a strength of Rodgers.

Pittsburgh turns the ball over 0.9 times per game, which is the 4^th best mark. So, they don’t hurt themselves with silly turnovers. However, they do only average 103.3 rushing yards per game, which is the 7^th lowest mark in the league.

For the Steelers to have success offensively on MNF, they need to get some production out of their inconsistent backfield.

Defensively, Pittsburgh is decent against the run, but that’s also in part due to many teams throwing against this awful pass defense. Pittsburgh does average 1.6 takeaways per game, which is the 4^th best mark.

And, they’ve mastered the bend but don’t break defensive coverage. The Steelers are 7^th in red zone defense as they don’t allow as many touchdowns as one would think based on this leaky pass defense.

Who Is Winning Monday Night Football?

I really have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh win this game. Their offense is one dimensional without a consistent rushing attack. Then, they have to face the no.4 run defense on top of that. Furthermore, the Texans have an elite defense that gets after the QB and can play man-to-man.

I see this Houston defensive line overwhelming Pittsburgh’s offensive line. Additionally, I see the Texans taking away Metcalf and forcing Rodgers to throw elsewhere.

On the other side of the ball, I really like CJ Stroud to have a strong showing on MNF. He’s facing a terrible pass defense that will be the downfall of the Steelers. I’m taking the Texans to win this game as the defense sets the tone but Stroud punctuates the victory.

Houston is 9-2 SU following a win, 7-2 SU as the favorite, 10-2 SU in AFC games, and 5-1 SU in their last six road games. The Steelers are 2-2 SU as a home underdog and 4-5 SU following a win.  

I would love to get this spread at 2.5 points but it appears to be holding strong at a field goal. With that said, I still think the Texans cover as they’ve gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight January games.

As for the Total, I am skipping it.

Bet: Houston Texans (-155), Texans -3 (-110), Total (pass)

Monday Night Football Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at some of the best Player props and Game prop bets for this Monday Night Football matchup:

CJ Stroud Passing Yards

• Over 239.5 (-110)
• Under 239.5 (-110)

In 14 games, CJ Stroud is averaging 217.2 ypg but he’s thrown for at least 240 yards in half of his starts since returning from a multi-game absence due to a concussion. More importantly, Stroud has excelled against bad pass defenses this year.

For example, Stroud threw for 318 yards vs. the 49ers, 276 yards vs. the Colts, 260 yards vs. the Cardinals and 244 yards vs. the Ravens.

All of these defenses are on par with the Steelers for being awful in defending the pass. The Steelers rank 29^th against the pass as they give up nearly 245 yards per game. They also face 36.1 passes per game (4^th most) and 59.44% pass plays called (8^th most).

This sets up nicely for CJ Stroud to have a big outing on Monday Night Football against a poor Pittsburgh secondary.

Bet: Over 239.5 yards (-110)

DK Metcalf Receptions

• Over 4.5 receptions (-110)
• Under 4.5 receptions (-110)

In 15 games, DK Metcalf finished with 59 receptions which is just under four receptions per game. Only five times has he caught 5 or more receptions in a game.

I expect Houston to put Stingley on Metcalf all game long. Against tough pass defenses like Seattle, Buffalo, Cleveland and the Chargers, Metcalf had four or less receptions.

Houston allows only 185.4 ypg which is the 6^th best mark. And, they have the 3^rd highest interception rate. I see the Texans limiting Metcalf’s impact on the game and holding him to 4 catches or less.

Bet: Under 4.5 receptions (-110)

Nico Collins Receiving Yards

• Over 70.5 yards (-110)
• Under 70.5 yards (-110)

As mentioned, a few times now, the Pittsburgh Steelers give up nearly 245 passing yards per game. And, as stated above, I believe that CJ Stroud will have a big game. His no.1 option is Nico Collins who should benefit against a weak secondary.

On the season, Collins is averaging 74.5 yards per game over 15 starts. In five of his last eight games, Collins has gone for 85 or more yards.

In their two games against the Ravens, they allowed Zay Flowers to average 132 yards per game. Against another true no.1 receiver, the Steelers gave up over 100 yards to LA’s Ladd McConkey. Michael Pittman Jr. put 115 yards on this secondary.

I’m taking Collins to flirt with 100 yards this Monday Night Football.

Bet: Over 70.5 yards (-110)

Best Bets For Monday Night Football

Check out our best bets for Monday Night Football:

• Houston Texans (-155)
• Houston Texans -3 (-110)
• CJ Stroud over 239.5 passing yards (-110)

I like this Houston defense to dictate the game and put Pittsburgh in a one-dimensional offense, especially since the Steelers have a weak run game. I expect the Texans to win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Houston’s offense will succeed via the pass since the Steelers defense gives up the 4^th most passing yards. Look for Stroud to have success and for players like Collins to put up big numbers against an inferior secondary.

If you put these best Wild Card MNF bets into a parlay, then you will win $596 for every $100 wagered. That’s a 6x ROI for this parlay card. And, all it requires is for Houston to play their brand of defensive football along with Stroud maximizing his opportunity against a bad Pittsburgh pass defense.

If this interests you, then check out our best NFL parlays of the week. We also have weekly College Football parlays, as well.

Monday Night Football Song

Monday Night Football’s theme “Heavy Action” has become a pop-culture staple as generations of fans will instantly recognize the theme song within the first few notes.

Yet, over time, broadcast networks have tried to retool the MNF song to add an extra layer of entertainment, importance, and relevance. For over two-decades, Monday Night Football belonged to Hank Williams Jr. and his hit “All My Rowdy Fans Are Coming Over Tonight.”

In 2023, ESPN debuted a new opening song. They took one of the 80’s biggest hits “In The Air Tonight” by Phil Collins and modernized it with an all-star collaboration from Christ Stapleton, Snoop Dogg and Cindy Blackman Santana. As of now, this rendition is expected to remain the Monday Night Football song for the 2025-26 season.

Monday Night Football Schedule