Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions 2027: Early Contenders

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Super Bowl MVP odds and predictions have moved into the 2026-27 NFL season after Kenneth Walker III captured the Pete Rozelle Trophy in Seattle’s 29-13 victory over New England in Super Bowl LX.

The next award will be handed out after Super Bowl LXI on February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The Los Angeles Rams enter the preseason as the clear championship favorite, immediately making Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and even defensive star Myles Garrett important names in the early Super Bowl MVP conversation.

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is our preferred AFC candidate, while Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes also have realistic paths to the award if their teams reach the Super Bowl.

One important betting distinction is necessary this early in the season. Full Super Bowl LXI MVP player odds are not yet consistently available across major sportsbooks. Instead of inventing prices, this update uses current Super Bowl futures, player roles, historical MVP trends and team championship probability to identify the players bettors should monitor when the complete MVP market opens.

Our early Super Bowl MVP prediction is Stafford because the Rams own the shortest championship odds and their offense continues to run through the reigning NFL MVP. Nacua is our preferred non-quarterback candidate, while Allen offers the strongest combination of AFC championship probability and individual MVP upside.

Super Bowl MVP Odds Update

The Super Bowl MVP market looks very different in August than it does during Super Bowl week. Once the championship matchup is determined, sportsbooks can assign specific MVP odds to every realistic player from the two participating teams.

That complete player market is not broadly available yet for Super Bowl LXI because all 32 teams remain alive before the regular season begins.

The best early indicator is therefore the Super Bowl championship market. A player cannot realistically win Super Bowl MVP unless his team reaches the game, so championship probability must come before individual performance analysis.

The Rams currently lead that market around +550. Buffalo and Baltimore are approximately +1000, defending champion Seattle is +1100 and New England, Philadelphia and Kansas City sit near +1600.

Those team odds immediately push Stafford, Allen, Jackson and Darnold toward the top of our projected MVP board. Quarterbacks historically dominate the award, while the latest Super Bowl reminded bettors that a running back, receiver or defender can still create much larger value when one player clearly controls the championship game.

The full championship board and team-by-team futures analysis are available in the ScoresAndStats Super Bowl odds and predictions guide.

Super Bowl LXI Date and Location

Super Bowl LXI will be played on Sunday, February 14, 2027, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

SoFi Stadium previously hosted Super Bowl LVI, when the Rams defeated Cincinnati 23-20. Cooper Kupp won MVP after catching eight passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns, providing an important reminder that the quarterback of the winning team does not automatically receive the award.

The Rams now enter the 2026 season with an opportunity to reach another Super Bowl played inside their home stadium. That possibility is one reason Stafford, Nacua and Garrett dominate our early individual watchlist.

Early Super Bowl MVP Contenders for 2027

Our early Super Bowl MVP rankings begin with quarterbacks from the strongest championship contenders.

Stafford occupies the top position because Los Angeles is the clear Super Bowl favorite. Allen and Jackson follow because Buffalo and Baltimore lead the AFC futures board, while Darnold already demonstrated that he can guide Seattle through a complete championship run.

Maye deserves significant attention after taking New England to Super Bowl LX and finishing second in the 2025 NFL MVP race. Mahomes cannot be ignored despite Kansas City’s disappointing 2025 season because he already owns three Super Bowl MVP awards.

Nacua is the first non-quarterback on our board. Garrett is the defensive longshot, while Walker returns as one of the most interesting special cases after changing teams immediately following his Super Bowl LX MVP performance.

Matthew Stafford Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Matthew Stafford is our early prediction to win Super Bowl LXI MVP.

The reasoning begins with team probability. Los Angeles is the only team priced significantly shorter than +1000 to win the championship, which gives every Rams player a larger theoretical path to the MVP award than players on longer-priced teams.

Stafford remains the most natural beneficiary if the Rams win through their offense. He is coming off an NFL MVP season in which he threw for more than 4,700 yards and 46 touchdowns while directing one of the league’s most productive passing attacks.

The supporting cast remains excellent. Nacua is an elite receiving option, Davante Adams remains a dangerous red-zone weapon and Kyren Williams gives Los Angeles enough balance to prevent defenses from simply dropping extra defenders into coverage.

The biggest argument against Stafford is the same reason Nacua belongs high on the board. Stafford can play very well and still lose the MVP vote to one of his receivers if that player produces the game’s biggest touchdowns and most memorable moments.

That already happened the last time the Rams won the Super Bowl. Stafford threw three touchdown passes against Cincinnati, but Kupp won MVP after catching the game-winning touchdown and finishing with 92 receiving yards.

Stafford is still our most likely individual winner today because quarterback remains the position most closely tied to both team success and MVP voting.

SAS Early Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Matthew Stafford.

Josh Allen Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Josh Allen is our preferred AFC Super Bowl MVP candidate.

Buffalo is approximately +1000 to win Super Bowl LXI, placing the Bills among the strongest championship contenders in the conference. More importantly, there are very few realistic Buffalo victory scenarios in which Allen is not one of the game’s central figures.

His rushing production separates him from most quarterbacks in an MVP market. A traditional pocket passer may need three or four touchdown passes to dominate the voting. Allen can create the same statistical impact through a combination of passing and rushing scores.

Quarterback rushing touchdowns are particularly valuable in Super Bowl MVP markets because they reduce opportunities for running backs to accumulate the scoring plays that could take votes away from the quarterback.

The obvious risk is Buffalo’s postseason history. Allen has produced elite playoff performances without reaching the Super Bowl, making the Bills’ championship probability the biggest obstacle rather than his individual talent.

If Buffalo reaches Super Bowl LXI, Allen should immediately become one of the two shortest-priced MVP candidates in the matchup.

Best AFC MVP Prediction: Josh Allen.

Puka Nacua Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Puka Nacua is our favorite early non-quarterback Super Bowl MVP candidate.

The most important reason is simple: he plays for the championship favorite. Longshot player odds are meaningless if the player’s team has only a remote chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

Nacua avoids that problem. The Rams are +550, and their passing game consistently creates enough volume for an elite receiver to produce a championship-defining stat line.

History also supports the possibility. Kupp won Super Bowl LVI MVP from the same offense and same organization after producing the game’s most important receiving plays.

A Nacua MVP scenario does not require Stafford to play poorly. The most realistic path is Stafford throwing multiple touchdowns while Nacua catches two of them, exceeds 100 receiving yards and delivers the decisive fourth-quarter play.

That type of stat line could push voters toward Nacua even if Stafford completes an efficient game.

Once full player odds become available, the gap between Stafford and Nacua will be extremely important. Nacua becomes especially attractive if sportsbooks offer several times the potential return available on Stafford.

Best Non-Quarterback MVP Prediction: Puka Nacua.

Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Darnold was the favorite to win Super Bowl LX MVP and remains an important candidate entering Seattle’s championship defense.

Seattle won the title without Darnold taking home the individual award. Walker dominated the rushing game and produced enough offense to overcome a relatively quiet quarterback performance.

The 2026 Seahawks no longer have Walker, which may actually increase Darnold’s MVP share if Seattle returns to the Super Bowl. More offensive responsibility should move toward the passing game and the Darnold-to-Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection.

Seattle is approximately +1100 to repeat, which is a considerably longer championship price than the market gave the Seahawks immediately after Super Bowl LX.

If Seattle reaches the game again, Darnold will probably reopen as one of the shortest MVP prices unless Smith-Njigba clearly dominates the postseason.

Seattle MVP Prediction: Sam Darnold, with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the better potential value.

Lamar Jackson Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Lamar Jackson offers one of the highest individual ceilings on the entire board.

Baltimore sits around +1000 to win Super Bowl LXI, tying the Ravens with Buffalo among the top AFC contenders. Jackson also remains one of the NFL’s most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks.

His path to Super Bowl MVP would look similar to Allen’s. A combination of efficient passing, 50-plus rushing yards and one or two rushing touchdowns could create an award-winning stat line even without 300 passing yards.

The postseason remains the issue. Jackson has accumulated regular-season awards but has not converted that success into a Super Bowl appearance.

That makes Baltimore’s path through January more important than any potential individual MVP price available today.

If the Ravens reach SoFi Stadium, Jackson would likely become the shortest MVP price on Baltimore by a huge margin.

High-Upside MVP Candidate: Lamar Jackson.

Drake Maye Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Drake Maye is our preferred midrange quarterback to monitor.

New England reached Super Bowl LX in Maye’s second season and came within one game of completing one of the fastest turnarounds in recent NFL history.

Maye also finished second in the regular-season NFL MVP voting, demonstrating that his individual production was not simply the product of a favorable playoff path.

The Patriots are now roughly +1600 to win Super Bowl LXI. That price places them behind Buffalo and Baltimore but still firmly inside the championship contender tier.

If New England returns to the Super Bowl and wins, Maye would be extremely difficult to beat for MVP unless the Patriots produce an unusual defensive or rushing performance.

The appeal comes from the expected difference between his eventual MVP price and those attached to Stafford, Allen and Jackson.

Best Midrange Quarterback MVP Candidate: Drake Maye.

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Patrick Mahomes is impossible to remove from a Super Bowl MVP discussion.

Mahomes has already won three Super Bowl MVP awards and has repeatedly demonstrated that one difficult regular season does not erase his postseason ceiling.

Kansas City enters 2026 around +1600 to win Super Bowl LXI after missing the playoffs last season. The biggest variable is Mahomes’ recovery after suffering a serious knee injury late in 2025.

The Chiefs have also changed the structure around him. Walker arrives as the reigning Super Bowl MVP and gives Kansas City a more explosive rushing threat than it had during most of the previous season.

That addition can work both ways for an MVP future. A stronger running game should help Mahomes and the offense reach the postseason, but it also creates another player capable of taking the award if Kansas City wins through its ground game.

Mahomes still deserves attention because he has already shown the ability to win Super Bowl MVP without producing a statistically perfect game. Voters naturally credit quarterbacks who create decisive late-game drives.

Championship Pedigree Pick: Patrick Mahomes.

Can Kenneth Walker III Win Super Bowl MVP Again?

Walker creates one of the most unusual Super Bowl MVP stories entering 2026.

He won the award for Seattle after rushing for 135 yards and adding 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX. Walker became the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in January 1998.

He then left Seattle and signed with Kansas City, meaning a repeat MVP would require him to win the award for a different team immediately after taking it home with the Seahawks.

The path is difficult but fascinating. Kansas City does not need Walker to dominate every regular-season game. It needs him healthy in January and capable of changing a championship matchup when defenses devote most of their attention to Mahomes.

Running backs normally receive much longer MVP prices than quarterbacks, which made Walker’s +700 number so attractive compared with Darnold before Super Bowl LX.

The lesson is not to blindly bet Walker again. It is to remember that a featured running back with a strong matchup can provide dramatically better MVP value than a quarterback priced close to even money.

Repeat MVP View: Kenneth Walker III belongs on the longshot watchlist if Kansas City reaches Super Bowl LXI.

Myles Garrett Defensive Super Bowl MVP Longshot

Myles Garrett is our favorite defensive player to monitor for Super Bowl MVP.

Los Angeles acquired Garrett after he produced a record-setting pass-rush season and won Defensive Player of the Year. His presence also matters because the Rams are the championship favorite.

Defensive MVP bets require an unusually specific game script. One or two sacks normally will not beat a quarterback with three touchdowns.

Garrett would likely need something closer to Von Miller’s Super Bowl 50 performance: multiple sacks, a forced fumble, a takeaway or another game-changing play directly responsible for points.

The advantage is price. Defensive players generally sit far behind quarterbacks and star receivers once the full MVP board opens.

If Los Angeles reaches the Super Bowl against an opponent with a vulnerable offensive line, Garrett could become one of the most attractive deep longshots on the board.

Best Defensive MVP Longshot: Myles Garrett.

Super Bowl MVP Position Trends

Quarterbacks remain the most important position for Super Bowl MVP bettors, but Super Bowl LX provided a timely reminder not to ignore the rest of the board.

Quarterbacks have won the award 34 times through 60 Super Bowls. Running backs and wide receivers have each produced eight MVP performances, while defensive players account for 10 individual winners.

Desmond Howard remains the only player to win primarily through his return-game impact. Super Bowl XII also produced the award’s only co-MVP result, which is why the total number of individual winners exceeds the number of games.

Walker becoming the first running back winner in 28 years is especially important for bettors. The position had been treated as almost impossible to win for decades, yet one dominant rushing performance immediately changed the result.

Recent Super Bowl MVP Winners

The recent history continues to favor quarterbacks but contains enough exceptions to make longer-priced skill-position players important.

Walker broke a four-game stretch in which either a quarterback or receiver won. Before Walker, Hurts and Mahomes had combined to win three consecutive awards.

Kupp remains the most recent wide receiver winner, while Julian Edelman also produced a major longshot payout when he won after Super Bowl LIII.

How to Bet Super Bowl MVP Odds

1. Start With the Winning Team

The most important Super Bowl MVP rule is to identify which team you believe will win before selecting an individual player.

Only one player has ever won Super Bowl MVP from the losing team. Building an MVP bet around the expected champion therefore eliminates a huge portion of unnecessary risk.

2. Do Not Automatically Bet the Quarterback

Quarterbacks deserve to begin at the top of the market because they control more offensive possessions than any other player.

That does not mean the shortest quarterback price always offers the best value.

Walker was +700 while Darnold was near even money before Super Bowl LX. A bettor taking Walker received several times the potential payout while still betting on the same Seattle victory.

3. Build the Expected Game Script

MVP betting becomes much easier when the wager matches the predicted style of the game.

If you believe Buffalo wins a shootout, Allen becomes the obvious starting point. If you believe the Rams win because Garrett destroys an injured offensive line, a defensive longshot becomes more logical.

If Los Angeles wins 34-31, Stafford or Nacua is much more likely to receive the award than Garrett.

4. Compare Player Odds With Team Odds

Once Super Bowl MVP futures become widely available, compare the player’s price with his team’s championship odds.

A player on a +550 team should normally carry a much shorter MVP price than an equally talented player on a +3000 team because the first player has a dramatically better chance of reaching the game.

This is why Stafford and Nacua belong near the top of an August watchlist even before individual MVP lines are widely posted.

5. Shop for the Best Price

MVP markets can vary significantly between sportsbooks, especially on receivers, running backs and defensive players.

The difference between +5000 and +7500 on a defensive longshot is enormous if the player ultimately wins, so futures bettors should avoid accepting the first price they see.

Current operators and available markets can be compared through the ScoresAndStats sportsbook reviews.

6. Wait When the Market Is Incomplete

There is no advantage in forcing a fabricated or unavailable wager simply because the Super Bowl is already generating futures interest.

The individual MVP market becomes much more useful once the playoff field is established and sportsbooks can assign realistic probabilities to players whose teams have a genuine path to February.

Readers looking to understand futures odds, implied probability and NFL bankroll strategy can review the ScoresAndStats NFL betting guide.

Final Super Bowl MVP Predictions for 2027

Stafford leads our early Super Bowl LXI MVP board because Los Angeles owns the strongest championship probability and remains built around an elite passing offense.

Allen is the preferred AFC option. His dual-threat profile allows him to dominate an MVP vote through both passing and rushing production, while Buffalo remains one of the conference favorites.

Nacua is the most appealing non-quarterback because he shares the Rams’ +550 championship path while likely receiving a significantly larger individual MVP price than Stafford when the market opens.

Maye provides the preferred midrange quarterback option after taking New England to Super Bowl LX. Mahomes remains the pedigree selection, Walker is the defending winner and Garrett is the defensive longshot.

Exact player prices will determine which of these predictions becomes the best actual wager. Until the full market appears, the rankings should be treated as an MVP watchlist rather than fabricated sportsbook odds.

Our Early Super Bowl MVP Prediction: Matthew Stafford.

Our Best AFC MVP Candidate: Josh Allen.

Our Best Non-Quarterback Candidate: Puka Nacua.

Our Best Defensive Longshot: Myles Garrett.

Weekly game analysis and NFL selections will be available through the ScoresAndStats NFL picks and predictions as the regular season begins.

Additional Super Bowl futures, playoff analysis and prop coverage can be found throughout the ScoresAndStats NFL section.

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