Week 11 of the 2025-26 NFL season kicks off with an AFC East matchup as the New England Patriots host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

The Jets (2-7) picked up their second win of the season when they took down the Cleveland Browns. New York enters this TNF contest on a two-game winning streak but are clearly the inferior roster on paper and on the field. Yet, TNF has seen some upsets already this season. Will we get another one?

Week 10 showed the rest of the league that the Patriots (8-2) are a real contender in the AFC as they beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. New England outdueled a talented Bucs team coming off their Bye. With the win, the Patriots remained at the top of the conference with the Broncos and Colts. They also ran their winning-streak up to seven games in a row.

While the Jets look like contenders for the no.1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the Patriots are squarely in the conversation of Super Bowl contenders.

With that said, let’s dive into the Jets vs. Patriots Week 11 matchup, take a look at the latest NFL betting odds and trends between these two teams, and make our Thursday Night Football predictions.

What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?

• Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
• Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit

The New York Jets vs. New England Patriots will kick off at 8:15pm ET live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA.

Thursday Night Football Odds

The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Week 11 TNF odds opened with the New York Jets listed as a 5.5-point Underdog and sporting a +180  moneyline at the top sports betting sites. Over the last few weeks, these odds have seen a vast change as the Jets’ odds have doubled with an 11.5 spread and +500 moneyline.

The New England Patriots went from opening as a -218 favorite, all the way up to -800 odds. The Total opened at 42.5 points, went as high as 46.5 points, and has slowly worked its way back down to the current O/U of 43.5 total points.

Last week, we saddled up and took the Denver Broncos to win. While they scored the victory, it was a dud of a performance. Not only did the Broncos fail to cover the spread but they also didn’t hit on most of their prop bets. With that said, our Denver pick gave us two wins in a row and pushed us to 5-5 on the season for TNF picks.

If you need even more in-depth NFL predictions for the Thursday Night Football games, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership for free. These handicappers will have dozens of picks for this TNF matchup and the rest of the week, as well.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

The following Thursday Night Football betting trends include data from last season:

New York Jets Betting Trends

• 2-7 SU in last nine games
• 1-6 SU in last seven AFC East games
• 1-6 ATS in last seven November games
• Over is 12-4 in last 16 games
• Over is 6-0 in last six road games

New England Patriots Betting Trends

• 7-0 SU in last seven games
• 3-7 SU in last 10 November games
• 6-1 ATS in last seven games
• 5-1 ATS in last six AFC East games
• 4-1 ATS in last five AFC games
• Over is 9-2 in last 11 games

Thursday Night Football Matchup

These two NFL teams have played against each other 132 times and it’s the New England Patriots that hold the commanding lead with a 75-56-1 series record. Last season, these divisional foes split their two head-to-head meetings.

While the New York Jets have won two of the last three matchups, the Patriots are 16-2 SU in the last 18 meetings. Furthermore, New England is 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games versus New York. Additionally, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games between these two foes along with the Under going 5-1 in the last six head-to-head contests.

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a look at each team in the Thursday Night Football game this week, and make our NFL picks for the winner: 

New York Jets Thursday Night Football

As mentioned above, the New York Jets have won two games in a row as they’ve defeated Ohio’s best in the Bengals and Browns. It should be noted that these two wins were also some of the best performances by the Jets offense as they scored 66 total points, which was more than their previous four outings combined.

With that said, the Jets did score 14 of their 27 points against the Browns via special teams. Yet, that shouldn’t take away from a solid all-around performance by Breece Hall who put up 125 total yards and a TD. Justin Fields did just enough to manage the game as he finished with 54 passing yards.

New York has the no.4 rushing attack as they average 141.8 ypg. However, they also have the worst passing offense that puts up a pathetic 143.8 ypg. If they had a better option at QB, Fields would’ve been benched already. I wouldn’t be surprised if New York went after Kyler Murray in the offseason.

Defensively, the Jets got rid of two stars at last week’s trade deadline. And, it really didn’t hurt them at all as they played decently against an inconsistent Browns offense. The Jets are 25^th against the run as they allow 138.2 ypg, but they are 8^th against the pass after allowing just 190.8 ypg.

One major area of concern for the Jets is the turnovers department. They’re last in the league at 0.1 takeaways per game, but give the ball up 1.1 times a game which is the most in the NFL. Fortunately, the Patriots have a similar turnover ratio.

New England Patriots Thursday Night Football

The New England Patriots have put together a remarkable turnaround from last year’s struggles. They not only lead the AFC East over a disappointing Buffalo squad, but the Patriots are also battling the Broncos and Colts for the best record in the AFC.

New England has won seven games in a row and coming off an impressive road victory over the Buccaneers. With that said, there are some concerns around this team considering they’ve only played three opponents with winning records. Additionally, they won their last two games by six total points.

Nevertheless, you can’t take away from the growth we’re seeing before our eyes. Each week, Drake Maye looks more like a Top 10 QB in the league. The offense is slowly taking shape despite a lack of playmakers. And, the defense has been playing solid football.

New England has been a middle-of-the-pack offense when it comes to running the ball (117.6 ypg). However, Maye and company have risen to no.9 in the NFL when it comes to their passing game. Furthermore, Maye’s evolution has been a fun thing to watch as he continues to shine no matter the situation.

Defensively, the Patriots have the no.1 rush defense that allows only 79.2 ppg. Yet, their pass defense gives up 227 ypg (21^st). New England allows the 6^th fewest points per game at 19.2 ppg and are the 8^th best in total yards allowed at 306.2 ypg.

In addition to their 1.2 turnovers per game, which is a concern, the Patriots have the worst red-zone defense that allows touchdowns 73.91% of the time. So, even though they excel on 3^rd down and 4^th down conversion rates, with both in the Top 5, this team is vulnerable inside the red zone.

Who Is Winning Thursday Night Football?

I think the Jets can make this game competitive for two or three quarters but then New England will pull away. I don’t envision a scenario where New York wins this game. The Patriots are too talented on both sides of the ball for the Jets to handle.

Furthermore, New York will be without Wilson for 3-4 weeks, which means they have very little threat in the passing game. Combine that with the Patriots no.1 rush defense, and you have a recipe for disaster.

Take the Patriots to win outright. And, eventually, New England will cover the large spread as they win by two touchdowns or more. The Patriots are 16-2 SU in the last 18 meetings, 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games throughout this series, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.

Bet: New England Patriots -800, Patriots -11.5 (-110), Total (pass)

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Let’s take a look at some of the best Player props and Game for this Thursday Night Football matchup:

New England Patriots Team Touchdowns

• Over 2.5 TDs (-225)
• Under 2.5 TDs (+160)

The New England Patriots are 8^th in scoring at 26.5 ppg. They’re also 8^th with 3.2 TDs per game. The New York Jets give up 26.8 ppg with 2.9 TDs per game. Even if the Jets can give up less than 26.8 ppg, I still see the Patriots hitting that three-touchdown mark.

New England has scored 23 or more points in all seven of their wins during this impressive streak. So, go ahead and chalk them up for at least 23 points on TNF and three or more team touchdowns. This is my favorite prop bet of the night.

Bet: Over 2.5 TDs (-225)

Drake Maye Passing TDs

• Over 1.5 (-180)
• Under 1.5 (+145)

Drake May has thrown 19 touchdowns over his first 10 starts. In eight of those games, he’s tossed two ore more TDs. Over his last five outings, Maye has thrown two or more TDs. The Jets allow an average of two passing touchdowns per game. I like Maye to connect on at least two touchdown throws this week.

Bet: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-180)

Drake Maye Passing and Rushing Yards

• Over 260.5 yards (-115)
• Under 260.5 yards (-115)

While the Jets only allow 190.8 passing yards per game, New England is averaging 241.4 ypg through the air. Maye is averaging 255.5 yards per game as a passer and 28.3 ypg as a runner. That’s 283.8 total yards per game through the ground and air. I like for the talented QB to eclipse 261 total yards this week.

Bet: Over 260.5 yards (-115)

Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

The following is our picks as the best bets for Thursday Night Football:

• New England Patriots (-800)
• Patriots Over 2.5 TDs (-225)
• Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-115)

The Patriots are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games against the Jets. Furthermore, they’ve gone 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games versus New York. These trends can’t be ignored, especially when New England is clearly the better team on paper and the field.

The Patriots average 26.5 ppg and 3.2 TDs per game. The Jets give up 26.8 ppg and 2.9 TDs per game. This gives me confidence that the Patriots can score at least three touchdowns on TNF.

The driving catalyst for the Patriots scoring will be Drake Maye who is an MVP candidate. Maye has 19 TD passes in 10 games so far, which is an average of 1.9 TDs per game. The second-year QB has thrown two or more TDs in eight of his 10 starts this season, including the last five games.

If you want to add all three of these Week 11 TNF bets to a parlay card, then you would win $204 on a $100 wager. Check out our best NFL parlay of the week for more exciting multi-wager action. And, if you want even more parlays, then take a look at our best College parlay of the week.

Thursday Night Football Schedule