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Week 12 of the 2025-26 NFL season kicks off with a crucial AFC Conference battle as the Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.
The Bills (7-3) sit 5th in the AFC Playoff standings after Josh Allen went Superman on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 11. The victory washed away a bad taste in the mouths of Buffalo after losing to Miami in Week 10.
The Texans (5-5) have won two games in a row without C.J. Stroud playing. Backup QB Davis Mills helped orchestrate two late-game winning drivers for the Texans to improve to .500 and 8th in the standings. They sit one game behind the Jaguars for the 7th and final AFC Playoff spot.
Coming into the season, both the Bills and Texans were in the conversation for AFC Super Bowl contenders. After 11 weeks of the season, Buffalo is still within striking distance of the top spot in the AFC and their division. The Texans still have a lot of work to do. The winner on TNF will pick up a big AFC victory.
With that said, let’s dive into the Bills vs. Texans Week 12 matchup, take a look at the latest NFL betting odds and trends between these two teams, and make our Thursday Night Football predictions.
What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?
- Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
- Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit
The Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans will kick off at 8:15pm ET live from NRG Stadium in Houston, TX.
Thursday Night Football Odds
The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -230 | -4.5 (-110) | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Houston Texans | +190 | +4.5 (-110) | U 44.5 (-110) |
Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.
The Week 12 TNF odds opened with the Houston Texans listed as a 3.5-point Underdog and sporting a +145 moneyline at the top sports betting sites. Over the last few weeks, these odds have seen a shift as the spread went as high as 5.5 points before settling around 4.5 points. Houston has settled as a -190 home dog in this one.
The Buffalo Bills went from opening as a -175 favorite, all the way up to -250 odds, before coming back down to a -230 moneyline. The Total opened at 46.5 points and has slowly fallen down to the current O/U of 44.5 total points.
Last week, we jumped all over the New England Patriots to win at home over the Jets:
“Take the Patriots to win outright. And, eventually, New England will cover the large spread as they win by two touchdowns or more.”
That’s exactly what happened as the Pats won 27-14 and covered the 11.5-point spread. That’s our third winning TNF pick in a row and it bumped us to 6-5 on the season.
If you need even more in-depth NFL predictions for the Thursday Night Football games, then check out the industry’s best handicapping membership for free. These handicappers will have dozens of picks for this Week 12 TNF matchup and the rest of the weekend, as well.
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Thursday Night Football Betting Trends
The following Thursday Night Football betting trends include data from last season:
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends
- 12-5 SU in last 17 games
- 5-1 SU in the last six November games
- 2-4 ATS in last six road games
- 4-2 ATS in last six AFC South games
- Under is 4-1 in last five AFC games
Houston Texans Betting Trends
- 5-2 SU in last seven games
- 4-1 SU in last five AFC games
- 3-7 SU in last 10 AFC East games
- 4-9 ATS in last 13 November games
- 1-5 ATS in last six Week 12 games
- Under is 4-1 in last five home games
Thursday Night Football Matchup
These two NFL teams have played against each other 12 times, which includes one postseason matchup that Buffalo Bills fans would like to forget. The Houston Texans hold a slight advantage in this series with a 7-5 record. They’ve also won three of the last four meetings on the way to a 6-2 SU record in the last eight meetings.
The Under has gone 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five trips to Houston. This includes their last head-to-head matchup that took place in October 2024, where the Texans won at home via 23-20. Buffalo was coming back in that contest but fell short in the end. Will we see a similar result this week on TNF?
Thursday Night Football Predictions
Let’s take a look at each team in the Thursday Night Football game this week, and make our NFL picks for the winner:
Buffalo Bills Thursday Night Football
The Buffalo Bills are coming off a statement game last weekend when they beat the Buccaneers 44-32 at home. Now, on a short week, they head to Houston to take on the Texans who have the top ranked defense in the league.
Josh Allen was superman against the Bucs as he threw for over 300 yards, 3 passing TDs, and rushed for 3 TDs. The Bills started calling more designed runs for Allen and they were very effective.
Buffalo has won three of their last four games and rebounded after that loss against the Dolphins two weeks ago. That was one of the most embarrassing losses in the Josh Allen era.
The Bills aren’t the same without Dalton Kincaid. The star TE will most likely miss another game, which limits this passing attack. With that said, Buffalo benched Keon Coleman in Week 11 and gave more time to Shavers and the returning Gabe Davis. I would expect that to continue but with Coleman returning into the fold.
Whomever lines up at receiver will have a tough time considering that Houston has one of the best pass defenses. The Texans are third against the pass as they allow 171 yards per game. And, they’re a Top 10 team for sack rate, as well.
The Bills will have a tough time running the ball against the Texans just like they did against the Bucs. Houston is no.3 against the run as they give up just 87.1 rushing yards per game. They also only allow 16.3 ppg which is the best in the NFL.
Buffalo will have their work cut out for them but it’s not impossible. It’s going to take another superhuman effort by Allen for the Bills offense to succeed.
Yet, with Davis Mills at the helm, there’s a strong chance that Buffalo’s defense has success on Thursday.
Houston Texans Thursday Night Football
The Texans started off 0-3 but are sitting at 5-5 on the season. The last two wins have come with Davis Mills starting at QB due to C.J. Stroud missing games because of a concussion. Stroud will not play this week either.
In his two starts with Stroud out, Mills has tallied a 61.6% completion rate, 566 total yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. He’s also led the Texans to two late-game comebacks that allowed Houston to win as time ran out on the Titans and Jaguars over the last two weeks.
Houston’s offense has struggled this season. They rank 22nd in scoring at 22.0 ppg. They’re also near the bottom of the league for red zone scoring at 43.33%.
This week, Houston could find some success on the ground, which should help Mills out. Buffalo gives up the second most rushing yards at 153.0 ypg. Houston averages 107.6 ypg on the ground, but I expect the Texans to easily eclipse that mark on Thursday Night Football.
Look for Woody Marks and Nick Chubb to have solid outings on TNF. However, I would be surprised if Nico Collins has a big game considering he will have Christian Benford guarding him and Buffalo providing safety help over the top to force Mills to throw elsewhere.
Who Is Winning Thursday Night Football?
I give Houston plenty of credit for winning three of their last four games, especially when two of those wins came with Stroud out and Mills starting. Unfortunately, I think the late-game heroics for Houston these last two weeks will come to an end.
Buffalo’s performance was a strong showing against a Playoff-caliber team. And, they did it without running the ball effectively which has been their bread and butter this season as Buffalo leads the NFL with 147.6 rushing yards per game. They also did it with turning the ball over three times and giving up 32 points. That doesn’t happen often in the NFL.
Houston has had Buffalo’s number the last handful of meetings. But I like Allen and the Bills on Thursday especially without Stroud starting. Mills is serviceable but he will need a flawless performance and plenty of help from the NFL’s best defense to have a shot at winning.
While Buffalo has shown that they can have duds on the season, I think this franchise realizes it’s “go time” and they’re stepping on the gas to make a run at the Patriots and the top seed in the AFC. Take Buffalo to win outright and to cover the spread as they hold off a late-charging Houston squad.
Bet: Buffalo Bills (-230) Buffalo -4.5 (-110), Under 44.5 points (-110)
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Let’s take a look at some of the best Player props and Game for this Thursday Night Football matchup:
Josh Allen Rushing Yards
- Over 33.5 yards (-110)
- Under 33.5 yards (-110)
In 10 games this season, Josh Allen is averaging 35.1 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, he’s had 30 or more rushing yards in seven of his 10 starts.
Allen tallied 40 rushing yards in last week’s win over the Bucs. In his first six starts, Allen had 25 or more yards in all six of them.
Last week, Cam Ward led the Titans with 33 rushing yards. Allen should get that since it will be tough to run the ball with Cook and company. I’m taking the Over in this contest.
Bet: Over 33.5 yards (-110)
Josh Allen Passing Yards
- Over 223.5 yards (-110)
- Under 223.5 yards (-110)
While the Houston defense only allows 171 passing yards per game, Allen is averaging 245 passing yards per contest and he’s done it against some solid defenses.
In Buffalo’s four best opponents (Ravens, Patriots, Chiefs, Bucs), Allen had at least 253 passing yards in all of them. I see Allen getting at least 224 passing yards this week even if he has to throw dump offs to the running backs.
Bet: Over 223.5 yards (-110)
Woody Marks Rushing Yards
- Over 57.5 yards (-120)
- Under 57.5 yards (-110)
Currently, Woody Marks is averaging just 34.8 rushing yards per game. However, every time he’s had 11 carries or more, Marks has averaged 59.5 rushing yards per game. Now, he’s going up against arguably the worst run defense in the league. I like for Houston to roll with Marks more than Chubb and for the rookie to get at least 60 rushing yards.
Bet: Over 57.5 yards (-120)
Best Bets For Thursday Night Football
The following is our picks as the best bets for Thursday Night Football:
- Buffalo Bills (-230)
- Josh Allen Over 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Josh Allen Over 223.5 passing yards (-110)
I believe that the Buffalo Bills will carry their Week 11 momentum into Thursday’s matchup against the Texans. It will be tough considering that Houston’s defense is the best in the league. However, for Buffalo to win, they will need another superman performance out of Josh Allen just like last week against the Bucs.
So, I am going with Allen to rush for over 33.5 yards and to throw for more than 223.5 passing yards. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got those rushing yards in the first half considering he will be scrambling and extending plays with his legs.
As for the passing attack, look for the running backs to have a big game this week. Allen will need to check the ball down to keep the chains moving.
If you want to add all three of these Week 12 TNF bets to a parlay card, then you would win $424 on a $100 wager. Check out our best NFL parlay of the week for more exciting multi-wager action. And, if you want even more parlays, then take a look at our best College parlay of the week.
Thursday Night Football Schedule
| Date | Time(ET) | Road Team | Home Team | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep. 4 | 8:15 PM | Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles (W) |
| Sep. 11 | 8:15 PM | Washington Commanders | Green Bay Packers | Washington Commanders (L) |
| Sep. 18 | 8:15 PM | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills (W) |
| Sep. 25 | 8:15 PM | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks (W) |
| Oct. 2 | 8:15 PM | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams (L) |
| Oct. 9 | 8:15 PM | Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles (L) |
| Oct. 16 | 8:15 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers (L) |
| Oct. 23 | 8:15 PM | Minnesota Vikings | Los Angeles Chargers | Minnesota Vikings (L) |
| Oct. 30 | 8:15 PM | Baltimore Ravens | Miami Dolphins | Baltimore Ravens (W) |
| Nov. 6 | 8:15 PM | Las Vegas Raiders | Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos (W) |
| Nov. 13 | 8:15 PM | New York Jets | New England Patriots | New England Patriots (W) |
| Nov. 20 | 8:15 PM | Buffalo Bills | Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills |
| Nov. 27 | NA | Thanksgiving Day Games | ||
| Dec. 4 | 8:15 PM | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | |
| Dec. 11 | 8:15 PM | Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |
| Dec. 18 | 8:15 PM | Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks | |
| Dec. 25 | NA | Christmas Day Games | ||
