NFL Week 16 Odds and Predictions 2026: Picks for Every Game

Thursday, December 24 · 8:15 PM ET

Interconference

Houston Texans

at

Philadelphia Eagles

Out of conference, which is where season-long narratives get built on the least useful evidence. Christmas Eve, and the last football before the holiday takes over the schedule. We would rather have the points here than the opinion.

Friday, December 25 · 1:00 PM ET

Divisional

Green Bay Packers

at

Chicago Bears

The return division game, and a rematch is where the first result gets tested rather than repeated. Christmas Day, one of three, in front of the largest casual audience of the season. Our read: the line that opens is not the line that settles, and the gap is the whole edge.

Friday, December 25 · 4:30 PM ET

Conference

Buffalo Bills

at

Denver Broncos

A conference fixture, which is to say it counts twice: once now, once in the tiebreakers. Denver sits a mile above sea level and the visitors land the day before. We think altitude is the most underpriced condition in the sport. It does its damage in the fourth quarter, long after the number was taken. Our view: the number will move more than the matchup warrants.

Friday, December 25 · 8:15 PM ET

Divisional

Los Angeles Rams

at

Seattle Seahawks

In the division, where the schedule is symmetrical and the excuses therefore are not available. Played on Christmas, where the crowd watching has not looked at a line all year. Our view: the public will be on one side of this by Friday, and that is worth knowing before Sunday.

Sunday, December 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Los Angeles Chargers

at

Miami Dolphins

Conference, not division: no rematch to correct it, which makes the single result heavier than it feels. 3 hours east for the visitor. Nobody notices it in warm-ups; it turns up in the fourth quarter. Our read: this is a total to look at before it is a side.

Sunday, December 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Conference

Arizona Cardinals

at

New Orleans Saints

Within the conference. It will not look important until two teams finish level. Played indoors under a roof that does not open, so the weather is out of it entirely. The obvious side is the popular side, and those are not always the same bet.

Sunday, December 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Divisional

New England Patriots

at

New York Jets

Second meeting, same division. The unfamiliar half of football has already been played. An outdoor field in New York at this time of year. Weather is not scene-setting here, it is a condition of the game. We think the market is closer to right here than the talk suggests.

Sunday, December 27 · 1:00 PM ET

Divisional

Cleveland Browns

at

Baltimore Ravens

Second time these two have met this season, in the division. Adjustments, not surprises. Baltimore in the cold months, outdoors, where the passing game gets simpler whether anyone plans it that way or not. Our view: this is the sort of game people are certain about for no good reason.

Sunday, December 27 · 4:05 PM ET

Conference

Tennessee Titans

at

Las Vegas Raiders

In the conference. It will be a line on a tiebreaker sheet in January and nobody will remember the afternoon. 2 time zones west for the visitor. The body clock reads later than the scoreboard, and that is the friendlier version of this trip. Our view: wait for the number rather than the news.

Sunday, December 27 · 4:25 PM ET

Interconference

San Francisco 49ers

at

Kansas City Chiefs

Non-conference, played once every four years by rotation, so neither side has much recent tape on the other. The visitor loses 2 hours flying east, and an early kickoff on the road is the one travel penalty with real evidence behind it. We would want a reason to be on the favourite here beyond the fact that they are the favourite.

Sunday, December 27 · 8:20 PM ET

Interconference

Jacksonville Jaguars

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Dallas Cowboys

Cross-conference, so nothing here settles a tiebreaker, which is exactly why it gets overread. A retractable roof, which takes the weather out of the question if they want it out. We would leave this alone until the injury report lands.

Monday, December 28 · 8:15 PM ET

Conference

New York Giants

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Detroit Lions

Conference game. The winner takes a game the loser cannot get back from anywhere else. A closed roof: no wind, no rain, no excuse in either direction. Our read: the total tells you more about what the books expect than the side does.

Date to be confirmed · TBD

Divisional

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

at

Atlanta Falcons

Division rematch. Both staffs already know what the other wanted to do, so this is about what they do instead. Under a roof that opens when it suits, so the forecast is a choice rather than a condition. We think the honest answer is that this one is close, and close games are where prices get lazy.

Date to be confirmed · TBD

Conference

Cincinnati Bengals

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Indianapolis Colts

In-conference, which matters in January rather than now: it is the record that breaks ties between strangers. Under a roof that opens when it suits, so the forecast is a choice rather than a condition. We are interested in this one late, not early.

Date to be confirmed · TBD

Conference

Washington Commanders

at

Minnesota Vikings

Same conference, no tiebreaker, but it moves the conference record that seeds the bracket. A closed roof: no wind, no rain, no excuse in either direction. We would take the home side’s price more seriously than the home side’s reputation.

Date to be confirmed · TBD

Interconference

Carolina Panthers

at

Pittsburgh Steelers

Across conferences, which usually means two unfamiliar teams and a market leaning on reputation to fill the gap. An outdoor field in Pittsburgh at this time of year. Weather is not scene-setting here, it is a condition of the game. Our read: the total tells you more about what the books expect than the side does.