Grizzlies vs Jazz Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

No bet on the Jazz. Our number gives Utah 53.3% at home, the market gives 50.4%, and a 2.9-point gap is short of the 5 we bet at.

The Memphis Grizzlies are -108 and the Utah Jazz -112 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 49.6% for Memphis and 50.4% for Utah. The book has priced this close to even, and our number agrees within 2.9 points. That is not enough.

How 53.3% is reached

Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. A side is a bet when our number and the market’s differ by at least 5 points. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. Memphis played two, Utah none.

The Jazz went 14-27 at Delta Center, a 34.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Grizzlies went 11-29 on the road, a 72.5% road loss rate over 40 games. The midpoint is 53.3% for Utah and 46.7% for Memphis.

The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -112 and -108 they come to 104.8%. Taken out, the Jazz are 50.4% and the Grizzlies 49.6%. Our 53.3% sits 2.9 points above the market on Utah.

This season is not in our number. Memphis is 3-0, 2-0 on the road, and won 123-112 at the Sacramento Kings on Sunday 25 October. Utah is 1-2, 1-1 at home, and lost 132-123 to the Los Angeles Lakers the same night. Three games is too few to read anything into, and the method does not try.

Utah at home, Memphis on the road

At home the Jazz scored 121.2 points a game and allowed 126.4, a margin of -5.2. The Grizzlies on the road scored 113.3 and allowed 121.9, a margin of -8.6. Both sides lost in the venue that matters here; Memphis lost by more.

The halves the method leaves out: Utah on the road went 8-33, scoring 114.0 and allowing 125.6. Memphis at home went 13-27, scoring 115.8 and allowing 119.8.

Over the full season the Jazz finished 22-60, 15th in the West, and were outscored by 8.4 points a game. The Grizzlies finished 25-57, 13th, and were outscored by 6.0 a game. Neither made the playoffs. Utah lost by 10 or more 41 times and Memphis 32 times; each won by 10 or more 9 times.

In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Utah went 9-11 and Memphis 7-9. The Jazz played 5 overtime games, the Grizzlies 2.

The teams split four meetings. In Salt Lake City, Memphis won 137-128 on 23 December 2025 and Utah won 147-101 on 10 April 2026; those two are in our number, inside the Jazz’s 41 home games and the Grizzlies’ 40 road games. In Memphis, Utah won 130-126 on 12 December 2025 and Memphis won 123-114 on 20 February 2026; those are in neither half.

Pick: No bet

No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 2.9 points toward the Jazz, against a threshold of 5.

The line read Grizzlies -108 and Jazz -112 on 26 October 2026 at 13:06 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Grizzlies -105 and Jazz -115. At the open the market gave Utah 51.1%. It now gives the Grizzlies 0.7 points more than it did then. That small move took the price a little further toward our number, and still not far enough.

What kills the bet

A longer Utah price makes it a bet. At +107 or longer the Jazz are a bet whatever Memphis is priced at. With the Grizzlies at -108, Utah becomes a bet at +106 or longer.

For Memphis to become the bet, the price would have to lengthen a long way. At +140 or longer the Grizzlies are a bet whatever Utah is priced at. With the Jazz at -112, Memphis needs +165 or longer.

ESPN’s injury list for the game, read 26 October 2026 at 13:03 UTC, has Trey Alexander (knee) and Jusuf Nurkic (foot) out for Utah, and Karim Lopez (knee) and Zach Edey (ankle) out for Memphis. The method does not adjust for this list, so it does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.

The total and the spread

The total is 237.5, over -108 and under -112. Utah’s home games went over 237.5 in 27 of 41 and averaged 247.6 points. Memphis’s road games went over in 17 of 40 and averaged 235.2.

That is 65.9% and 42.5%, an average of 54.2% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 49.6%, so our count leans to the over by 4.6 points. That is under the threshold. Pass.

The spread is Jazz -1.5 at -102 and Grizzlies +1.5 at -118, unchanged since it opened. The Jazz beat -1.5 in 14 of 41 home games; the Grizzlies beat +1.5 in 12 of 40 road games. Averaged, Utah -1.5 lands 52.1% of the time against 48.3% priced, a gap of 3.8 points toward the Jazz. Our method stakes the moneyline, so this is a lean on the same side, not a bet. The call on this game is no bet.

Grizzlies at Jazz, Monday 26 October, 9:00 PM ET, Delta Center, Salt Lake City. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 26 October 2026, 13:06 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 26 October 2026, 13:03 UTC.