NBA
SpreadTotalMoneyNY+1.5U 228.5-110PHI-1.5O 228.5-110
NBA · Friday 30 October
Knicks vs 76ers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
No bet on the Knicks or the 76ers. Our number is 1.2 points from the price, and we bet at 5.
The New York Knicks are -110 and the Philadelphia 76ers -110 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 50.0% for each side. Our number gives Philadelphia 51.2% at home and New York 48.8% on the road. That 1.2-point gap toward the 76ers is the whole argument, and it is too small to bet.
How 51.2% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Games at a neutral site are in neither half. New York played one, Philadelphia none.
The 76ers went 23-18 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, a 56.1% home win rate over 41 games. The Knicks went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 51.2% for Philadelphia and 48.8% for New York.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair adds to more than 100%. At -110 and -110 the pair comes to 104.8%. Taken out, each side is 50.0%. Our 51.2% sits 1.2 points above that, against a threshold of 5. The price is close to right.
This season is outside our number. Philadelphia is 4-1, 2-1 at home, and won 114-109 at the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday 28 October. New York is 2-3, 1-1 on the road, and won 133-127 at the Chicago Bulls the same night. Five games each is too few to say anything, and our number reads 2025-26 only.
Philadelphia at home, New York on the road
At home the 76ers scored 115.4 points a game and allowed 116.5, a deficit of 1.1. They won more than they lost there on a negative margin. The Knicks on the road scored 113.6 and allowed 111.0, a surplus of 2.6.
The halves the method leaves out point the other way. New York at home went 30-10, scoring 119.0 and allowing 109.0, a surplus of 10.0. Philadelphia on the road went 22-19, scoring 116.4 and allowing 115.6, a surplus of 0.8. None of that is in our number.
The season around it
The Knicks finished 53-29, the third seed in the East, and outscored opponents by 6.4 points a game. The 76ers finished 45-37, the seventh seed, and were outscored by 0.2 a game. In games decided by 5 points or fewer, New York went 11-5 and Philadelphia 10-10. Philadelphia played 7 overtime games; New York played 2.
New York won by 10 or more 32 times and lost by 10 or more 19 times. Philadelphia’s counts were 26 and 20. In the playoffs the 76ers beat the Boston Celtics 4-3, then lost 4-0 to the Knicks. New York beat the Atlanta Hawks 4-2, the 76ers 4-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 and the San Antonio Spurs 4-1. Playoff games are not in our number.
The teams split four regular-season meetings. In Philadelphia, the Knicks won 112-109 on Saturday 24 January 2026 and 138-89 on Wednesday 11 February 2026. Those games are in our number: two of the 76ers’ 41 home games and two of the Knicks’ 41 road games. In New York, the 76ers won 116-107 on Friday 19 December 2025 and 130-119 on Saturday 3 January 2026. Those are in neither half.
Pick: No bet
No bet on the moneyline. The gap is 1.2 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.
The line read Knicks -110 and 76ers -110 on 29 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at Knicks +105 and 76ers -125, which priced Philadelphia at 53.2% with the margin out. Since opening, the market gives the Knicks 3.2 points more. That move took the price toward our number, and a gap that was never 5 points got smaller.
What kills the bet
A longer price on either side makes it a bet. At +117 or longer the 76ers are a bet whatever the Knicks are priced at. With the Knicks at -110, the 76ers become a bet at +122 or longer.
New York needs more movement. At +129 or longer the Knicks are a bet whatever Philadelphia is priced at. With the 76ers at -110, the Knicks become a bet at +145 or longer. Both teams sit at -110 now, so either side would need a large move.
ESPN’s game page, read 29 October 2026 at 19:02 UTC, lists Tacko Fall (quadriceps), Dominick Barlow (back) and Ariel Hukporti (Achilles) out for Philadelphia, with Jabari Walker (knee) day-to-day. It lists Jose Alvarado (ankle) out for New York. The method does not re-run for any of them, so the list does not change the number. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 229.5, over -105 and under -115. Philadelphia’s home games went over 229.5 in 19 of 41, a 46.3% rate. New York’s road games went over in 15 of 41, a 36.6% rate. The 76ers’ home games averaged 231.9 points and the Knicks’ road games 224.6.
The average is 41.5% for the over. With the margin out, the market prices the over at 48.9% and the under at 51.1%, so our count leans to the under by 7.5 points. That clears 5. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean under, not a bet.
The spread is 76ers -1.5 at -102 and Knicks +1.5 at -118, unchanged from the open. Philadelphia’s home games beat that line in 22 of 41, and New York’s road games beat it in 22 of 41. Averaged, the 76ers cover 50.0% of the time against 48.3% priced, a 1.7-point lean toward 76ers -1.5. That is too thin to act on even as a lean. There is no bet on this game.
Knicks at 76ers, Friday 30 October, 7:30 PM ET, Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 29 October 2026, 19:02 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN game page, read 29 October 2026, 19:02 UTC.