NBA
NBA · Wednesday 28 October
76ers vs Pacers Best Pick, Prediction and Odds
Bet the 76ers at -125. Our number gives Philadelphia on the road 63.4%, and the price gives them 53.2%.
The Philadelphia 76ers are -125 and the Indiana Pacers +105 at DraftKings. With the margin out, that is 53.2% for Philadelphia and 46.8% for Indiana. Last season’s home and road records put the 76ers 10.2 points above the market. We bet at 5.
How 63.4% is reached
Our home win chance is the average of two 2025-26 regular-season rates: the home team’s win rate in its own arena and the visitor’s loss rate on the road. Neither team played a neutral-site game, so both halves hold all 41 games.
The Pacers went 11-30 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, a 26.8% home win rate over 41 games. The 76ers went 22-19 on the road and lost 19 of 41, a 46.3% road loss rate. The midpoint is 36.6% for Indiana and 63.4% for Philadelphia.
The margin is the extra a book builds into both prices so the pair comes to more than 100%. At -125 and +105 they come to 104.3%. Taken out, the 76ers are 53.2% and the Pacers 46.8%. Our 63.4% against the market’s 53.2% is the whole argument.
This season has started, and none of it is in our number. Indiana is 2-1, 0-1 at home, and won 136-109 at the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday 25 October. Philadelphia is 3-1, 1-0 on the road, and lost 106-93 to the Detroit Pistons the same day. Four games tell us almost nothing. The method reads 2025-26 only, and it cannot see roster changes over the summer. That is the main risk in this bet.
Indiana at home, Philadelphia on the road
At home the Pacers scored 113.8 points a game and allowed 119.2, a deficit of 5.4. The 76ers on the road scored 116.4 and allowed 115.6, a surplus of 0.8.
The halves the method leaves out: Indiana on the road went 8-33, scoring 111.0 and allowing 121.6. Philadelphia at home went 23-18, scoring 115.4 and allowing 116.5. The 76ers were close to even in both venues.
The season around it
The Pacers finished 19-63, 14th in the East, and were outscored by 8.0 points a game. They lost 38 games by 10 or more and won 7 that way. They missed the playoffs.
The 76ers finished 45-37, seventh in the East, and were outscored by 0.2 points a game. They won 26 games by 10 or more and lost 20. In the playoffs they beat the Boston Celtics 4-3, then lost to the New York Knicks 4-0.
In games decided by 5 points or fewer, Indiana went 10-12 and Philadelphia 10-10. Philadelphia played 7 overtime games, Indiana 2.
The 76ers won all four meetings. In Indianapolis they won 135-114 on 24 February 2026 and 105-94 on 10 April 2026; those games are in our number, two of the Pacers’ 41 home games and two of the 76ers’ 41 road games. In Philadelphia they won 115-105 on 12 December 2025 and 113-104 on 19 January 2026; those are in neither half.
Pick: 76ers -125
Bet the 76ers on the moneyline at -125. The gap is 10.2 points toward Philadelphia, against a threshold of 5.
The line read 76ers -125 and Pacers +105 on 27 October 2026 at 01:12 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN. It opened at the same prices, so the market has not moved.
What kills the bet
A shorter Philadelphia price. At -140 or longer the 76ers are a bet whatever Indiana is priced at. With the Pacers at +105, they stay a bet up to -218.
For the Pacers to become the bet, they would need to be +216 or longer whatever Philadelphia is priced at, or +289 or longer with the 76ers at -125. They are +105.
ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026 at 01:12 UTC, lists Joel Embiid (heel), VJ Edgecombe (abdomen) and Jabari Walker (knee) as day-to-day for Philadelphia, with Tacko Fall (quadriceps) and Dominick Barlow (back) out. For Indiana it lists Ben Sheppard (knee), Andrew Nembhard (back), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ivica Zubac (ankle) and Johnny Furphy (knee) as out. Our number reads last season’s rates only, so the list does not change it. Embiid’s status is the one to watch. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the spread
The total is 238.5, over -115 and under -105. The Pacers’ home games went over 238.5 in 17 of 41, and the 76ers’ road games in 13 of 41. Those games averaged 233.0 and 232.0 points.
That is 41.5% and 31.7%, an average of 36.6% for the over. With the margin removed the over is priced at 51.1% and the under at 48.9%, so our count leans to the under by 14.5 points. Over the full season the Pacers’ games went over this line in 32 of 82 and the 76ers’ in 27 of 82. Our method stakes the moneyline only, so this is a lean, not a bet.
The spread is 76ers -1.5 at -115 and Pacers +1.5 at -105, unchanged since opening. Indiana beat that line in 13 of its 41 home games; Philadelphia beat it in 21 of its 41 road games. Our count gives Pacers +1.5 a 40.2% chance against 48.9% priced, a gap of 8.7 points toward 76ers -1.5. That is a lean on the same side. One bet on this game: the 76ers at -125.
76ers at Pacers, Wednesday 28 October, 7:00 PM ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 27 October 2026, 01:12 UTC. Results: ESPN, 2025-26 regular season and playoffs. 2026-27 records and injury list: ESPN’s game page, read 27 October 2026, 01:12 UTC.