NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyLV+3U 43.5+150NO-3O 43.5-175
NFL · Sunday 27 September
Raiders at Saints Final Score: Raiders Win 35-27
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 35, New Orleans Saints 27, Sunday 27 September at Caesars Superdome.
Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Give me the under 43.5, and nothing else on this game.” The under 43.5 lost: the teams scored 62.
What decided it
Las Vegas won the fourth quarter by 13. Las Vegas turned the ball over 1 time to New Orleans’s 4, and gained 340 yards to 381.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 35 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is NO -3.5, with a total of 44.5. New Orleans did not cover as the favourite. The 62 points went over the total.
What comes next
Las Vegas plays next against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. New Orleans plays next against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday 5 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Pick the under 43.5 – Raiders at Saints prediction, odds and best picks”.
Two offences that could not score last season, and a total of 43.5. Give me the under.
Under 43.5 (-110)
Las Vegas scored 14.2 points a game last season. Fourteen point two, across seventeen games, which is the lowest figure among the teams playing this week by a distance. New Orleans scored 18.0.
Neither defence was good enough to rescue the other end: Las Vegas allowed 25.4, New Orleans 22.5. So this is not two strong defences, it is two weak offences, and that gets you to the same place on a total.
Worst price to bet: under 42.5 (-110).
The total has not moved since Monday. It was 43.5 then and it is 43.5 at ten of the 11 books now, so this is the same bet at the same number.
What the dots say
Each dot is one 2025 game. The dashed line is this week’s 43.5, and the weight of both rows sits to the left of it.
A question worth asking: if these two teams combined for 32.2 points a game last season as a pair, what has changed to make 43.5 the right number? The answer the market gives is this season, and this season is two games each.
This season
Las Vegas is 2-0 and New Orleans 1-1, and the Raiders’ start is the reason the number is as high as it is. Concede that freely: a 3-14 team starting 2-0 is a genuine signal, and if the offence has actually been fixed then 43.5 is beatable.
I still want the under, because fourteen points a game is a very deep hole to climb out of in a fortnight.
The side
New Orleans is laying three at home. Personally, I think that is about right for two teams this close in quality, and a right price is not a bet. No bet on the spread.
Last season, game by game
Look along the Las Vegas row. A 3-14 season with a -191 differential, and very few games where they scored enough to matter. That row is the argument.
Injury report
From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.
Las Vegas Raiders: On injured reserve: Zach Carter (DT, knee).
New Orleans Saints: Out: Brock Rechsteiner (WR, suspension), Mason Tipton (WR, leg); on injured reserve: Bryan Bresee (DT, knee – acl), Ty Chandler (RB, knee), Jaylan Ford (LB, undisclosed), Moliki Matavao (TE, knee), Rico Payton (CB, undisclosed), Dillon Radunz (G, knee – acl), Lorenzo Styles (S, calf), Zach Wood (LS, calf), Rejzohn Wright (CB, hip); questionable: Barion Brown (WR, hamstring), Christen Miller (DT, toe), Kendre Miller (RB, illness).
The moneyline
About 38 percent for Las Vegas once the margin comes out, from +150 and -179. Nothing to do here.
Give me the under 43.5, and nothing else on this game.
The calls come from last season’s 17-game rates and this week’s prices, the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 24 September 2026. The rest of the card is on the league page.