Chiefs at Dolphins Final Score: Chiefs Win 24-10

Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Miami Dolphins 10, Sunday 27 September at Hard Rock Stadium.

Our call lost. Before the game this page said: “Dolphins +11.5. Take the points.” Dolphins +11.5 lost: Miami lost by 14.

What decided it

Kansas City won the fourth quarter by 10. Kansas City turned the ball over 1 time to Miami’s 2, and gained 334 yards to 329.

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Kansas City Chiefs	7	7	0	10	24
Miami Dolphins	7	0	3	0	10

Scoring by quarter, from ESPN.

The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is KC -10, with a total of 45.5. Kansas City covered as the favourite. The 34 points went under the total.

What comes next

Kansas City plays next at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. Miami plays next at the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.

The prediction, as published before the game

Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Chiefs at Dolphins Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.

Miami is getting 11.5 at home. I am taking the Dolphins and the points.

Eleven and a half is a big number for a road favourite, and the market has good reason for it: Kansas City is 2-0 and Miami is 0-2. My question is whether the reason is worth eleven and a half points, and I do not think it is. On Monday this was Miami +10.5; it has gone to +11.5 since, which hands the same bet an extra point.

Pick: Dolphins +11.5

Kansas City went 6-11 last season. That is the figure the price is ignoring. They also outscored their opponents by 34 points over those 17 games, which tells you they lost a lot of close ones, but it does not tell you they are a double-digit road favourite.

Source: NFL 2025 regular season via Nucleus, 17 games each, checked against ESPN.

Kansas City scored 21.3 a game last season and allowed 19.3. Miami scored 20.4 and allowed 24.9. Kansas City was 2.0 points a game better than its opponents last season and Miami was 4.5 worse. That is a gap of six and a half, not eleven and a half.

Where the number came from

Source: ESPN scoreboard, read 24 September 2026. Each quarter breakdown adds up to its final score.

Two weeks. Kansas City has won both, Miami has lost both, and the market has moved a long way on that evidence. I understand it. I also think a fortnight of football is being asked to carry more weight than it can hold, and the price is where it is because of recency rather than because of a gap this size.

Worst price I would take: Dolphins +9.5. Under that the argument thins out fast.

The spread keeps climbing

Source: US sportsbooks via Nucleus. Each point is the first download in which that line appeared. Prices read 2026-09-24.

The line has only gone one way. The downloads on 16 September had Miami between +7 and +9. By Monday the median was +10.5, and on 24 September it is +11.5, the median of 11 books, nine of them at exactly 11.5. The market keeps leaning on a two-game sample, and every half point it adds goes to the side I am on.

Injury report

From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.

Kansas City Chiefs: Out: Omarr NormanLott (DT, knee); on injured reserve: Jeff Caldwell (WR, knee), Ethan Downs (LB, knee – acl), Jimmy Holiday (WR, undisclosed), Cooper McDonald (LB, knee), Isiah Pacheco (RB, back), Joshua Williams (CB, pectoral); questionable: Chamarri Conner (S, knee), Chris Jones (DT, calf), Josh Simmons (OT, back).

Miami Dolphins: Out: Storm Duck (CB, knee); on injured reserve: Kenneth Grant (DT, leg), Julian Hill (TE, knee), Kyle Louis (LB, knee), Trey Moore (LB, ankle), Cole Turner (TE, undisclosed); questionable: Tucker Addington (LS, shoulder), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, hamstring), Chris Bell (WR, knee), Caleb Douglas (WR, ankle), Ryan Miller (WR, hip), Jaylen Wright (RB, foot).

What the moneyline implies

Source: moneylines across US sportsbooks via Nucleus, read 2026-09-24.

Miami is priced at roughly a one-in-six chance to win the game outright. I am not touching that. The spread is the bet: Kansas City has to win by twelve, and a team that scored 21.3 a game last season has to score a lot more than that to get there.

The total

Forty-six, the median of 11 books.

Source: NFL 2025 regular season via Nucleus. The dashed line is the median total across 11 US sportsbooks, read 2026-09-24.

Miami’s games went over that number more often than Kansas City’s did, which is what you would expect from a defence that allowed 24.9 a game. It is not enough of a lean to bet, and a game where one side is expected to control the clock is the wrong place to force a total.

Last season in full