NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyDOL+10U 38.5+390VIK-10O 38.5-520
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Dolphins at Vikings Final Score: Vikings Win 15-10
Final: Minnesota Vikings 15, Miami Dolphins 10, Sunday 4 October at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Of our two calls, one won, one lost. Before the game this page said: “The pick is Miami +10.5.” “Over 38.5 is the second bet.” Dolphins +10.5 won: Miami lost by 5. The over 38.5 lost: the teams scored 25.
What decided it
Minnesota won the second quarter by 6. Minnesota turned the ball over 0 times to Miami’s 1, and gained 336 yards to 198.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is MIN -10, with a total of 38.5. Minnesota did not cover as the favourite. The 25 points went under the total.
What comes next
Miami plays next against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Minnesota plays next at the New Orleans Saints on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Dolphins at Vikings Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Minnesota -10.5 is about five points longer than last season’s rates support. The pick is Miami +10.5.
On 16 September books had Minnesota at -7 and -7.5. By 23 September -9.5, -10 and -10.5 had all appeared. On 28 September the median of 9 US sportsbooks was -10, and -11 and -11.5 first appeared the next day. On 1 October at 07:10 UTC the median of 11 US sportsbooks was -10.5: ten books at -10.5 and one at -11. The line history records the date a number first appeared, not the book that dealt it.
The number the argument rests on
Minnesota scored 20.2 points a game in 2025 and allowed 19.6, a differential of +11 over 17 games. Miami scored 20.4 and allowed 24.9, a differential of -77. Per game, that is +0.6 for Minnesota and -4.5 for Miami.
My method in one clause: half the gap between the two per-game differentials, plus two and a half points for home field. The gap is 5.2 in Minnesota’s favour, and half of it is 2.6. Add home field and this game prices at Minnesota by about five. The market has ten and a half.
That is an edge of about five and a half points against a threshold of two. Below two points I pass, because the error in a season-rate estimate is larger than that.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5
The half point now works for the bet. At +10.5 a Minnesota win by exactly ten wins it. At +10 it was a push.
Ten books hang +10.5 on Miami, priced from -105 to -115. DraftKings is -112, the same on ESPN. BetMGM has +11 at -110. Take the eleven where it is dealt, and the ten and a half anywhere else.
Last season, game by game
Minnesota went 9-8 with a +11 differential. It won by eleven or more in 4 of its 17 games. At home it went 4-4.
Miami went 7-10 and 2-6 on the road. It lost by eleven or more in 6 of 17 games, and by exactly ten once. That is the case against this bet, and it is a real one: the Dolphins’ bad days were very bad. The two teams did not meet in 2025 or so far in 2026.
What this season says, and what it cannot
Minnesota is 3-0. It beat Green Bay 39-22 at home, then won 9-3 at Chicago and 23-16 at Tampa Bay. That is 71 points scored and 41 allowed.
Miami is 0-3. It lost 27-13 at Las Vegas, 35-13 at San Francisco and 24-10 at home to Kansas City, a combined 36-86. Over the same weeks the line moved from -7 and -7.5 to -10.
Three games per team is not a sample that can carry a decision. I am saying the numbers and saying they prove nothing. The 17-game rates are what I price off, and they put this game near five.
The total
Thirty-eight and a half, the median of 11 books, down from 42 and 43.5 on 16 September and from 39 on 28 September. Eight books deal 38.5, Bovada and MyBookie 39, and BetRivers 39.5.
For the total I add each team’s expected points, taken as the average of what it scored a game and what the other side allowed a game in 2025. Minnesota comes out at 22.6 and Miami at 20.0, a total of 42.6. That is about four points over the market, which clears the same two-point threshold. Miami’s games went over 38.5 in 12 of 17 last season and Minnesota’s in 8 of 17.
The same caution applies as on the spread. Minnesota has allowed 13.7 points a game this season and Miami has scored 12.0, which is where the move down came from, and it is three games. The over is a second bet, and the smaller edge of the two.
The moneyline
The median moneylines are Minnesota -625 and Miami +450. With the bookmaker margin removed, that is an 82.6 percent chance for Minnesota.
My method measures a margin, and the spread is where a margin is tested. The moneyline gets no separate position.
Where the data runs out
Nucleus holds nothing before the 2025 season, so there is no head-to-head record to weigh here at all. Every figure above comes from 17 games per team in 2025 and three in 2026.
This page also prices no injury news. Kickoff is 4:05 pm Eastern on Sunday 4 October, and a missing starting quarterback on either side would move this line more than anything above, so read the injury report before you bet.
What would change the call
A move to Miami +7.5 still leaves an edge above two points. At +7 or shorter the edge falls below the threshold and the side is a pass. On the total, the over holds up to 40.5 and is a pass at 41 or higher.
Pick: Dolphins +10.5. Over 38.5 is the second bet.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
Miami Dolphins: Out: Storm Duck (CB, knee), Darrell Baker Jr. (CB, undisclosed); questionable: Tucker Addington (LS, shoulder), Chris Bell (WR, knee), Jaylen Wright (RB, foot – stinger), Caleb Douglas (WR, ankle), Robert Beal Jr. (DE, hamstring); on injured reserve: De’Von Achane (RB, knee – acl – surgery), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, hamstring), Kyle Louis (LB, knee), Kenneth Grant (DT, leg), Trey Moore (LB, ankle – surgery), Cole Turner (TE, undisclosed), Rene Konga (DT, undisclosed).
Minnesota Vikings: Out: Charles Demmings (CB, hamstring); questionable: Blake Cashman (LB, elbow), Justin Jefferson (WR, ankle – sprain), Brett Thorson (P, hamstring); on injured reserve: Josh Oliver (TE, biceps – surgery), Nick Samac (C, knee), Jordan Mason (RB, thumb – surgery), Ben Yurosek (TE, undisclosed), Michael Jurgens (C, undisclosed), Tyler Batty (LB, knee – acl – surgery), Jamal Adams (LB, quadriceps).