NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyNYJ+3.5U 43.5+154CHI-3.5O 43.5-185
NFL · Sunday 4 October
Jets at Bears Final Score: Bears Win 23-12
Final: Chicago Bears 23, New York Jets 12, Sunday 4 October at Soldier Field.
Of our two calls, one won, one lost. Before the game this page said: “Take the over 43, and Chicago -3.5.” The over 43 lost: the teams scored 35. Bears -3.5 won: Chicago won by 11.
What decided it
Chicago won the first quarter by 7. Chicago turned the ball over 2 times to New York’s 0, and gained 492 yards to 157.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 23 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is CHI -3.5, with a total of 43.5. Chicago covered as the favourite. The 35 points went under the total.
What comes next
New York plays next against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday 11 October: our prediction. Chicago plays next at the Green Bay Packers on Sunday 11 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Jets at Bears Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Take the over 43 in Jets at Bears, and Chicago -3.5 with it. The market marked the Bears down on one bad game, and last season says that game was the exception.
Watch the Chicago offence. It scored 25.9 points a game last season, and this number has been priced as if the 3 it scored against Minnesota on 20 September is the real one.
How I make the call
Same working every week. Each team’s points per game from last season, averaged with what the other side allowed, gives me a score for the game. When that score and the market’s number are a field goal or more apart, and I can see in the results why the market has moved, I bet.
Both halves hold here, on the total and on the side. Last season’s rates put this game at about 49 points, with Chicago about 6.8 points better on a neutral field. The market says 43 and Chicago by 3.5. And I can see exactly what moved it: a 9-3 home loss to Minnesota.
The tell
The first lines seen for this game, on 16 September, had Chicago laying 8.5 and 9. Then the Bears lost 9-3 at home to Minnesota on 20 September, and by 23 September the numbers were 3 and 3.5. Six points came off in a week.
On Monday night the Bears beat Philadelphia 27-7. The line barely moved back. It was 3 at the median of 9 books on 28 September, before that game, and still 3 at the median of 11 the next day. Read on 1 October it is 3.5, with seven books at 3.5 and four at 3. Half a point, for a 20-point win.
That is a market holding on to the 9-3 and letting most of the 27-7 go. I would rather hold on to seventeen games.
What last season says
Chicago went 11-6, scored 25.9 a game and finished 26 points to the good. New York went 3-14, scored 17.6 and allowed 29.6, and was outscored by 203.
The Bears were better at home: 6-2, with 25.6 scored and 17.6 allowed a game. The Jets were worse on the road. They allowed 32.0 a game away from home and won once in eight tries.
The total came down on one game
That dashed line is 43. Chicago’s games went over it 11 times in 17 last season. New York’s went over 10 times, and one more finished on 43 exactly.
The first totals seen were 45.5 and 44.5, on 16 September. After the 12-point game against Minnesota, 43.5 and 43 appeared on 23 September, and 42.5 was first seen on 28 September. Seven books sit at 43 on 1 October, three at 42.5 and DraftKings at 43.5.
On last season’s rates the Bears score about 27.8 here and the Jets about 21.0. That is 48.8 points, almost six more than the market is asking for. Chicago’s games averaged 50.4 points last season, and New York’s averaged 47.2.
What this season adds
Chicago is 2-1. The Bears won 59-37 in Carolina, lost 9-3 at home to Minnesota, then beat Philadelphia 27-7. New York is 1-2, with a 23-10 win in Tennessee, a 20-17 home loss to Green Bay and a 31-24 loss in Detroit.
Put this season’s three games through the same working and it comes to about 44.5 points, with Chicago by 5.5. Both point the same way as last season, and neither clears my field goal on its own. Only two of those six games went over 43. That is the case against the bet, and it rests on three weeks.
This is the part that decides it. The Jets allowed 30 or more eight times last season. If Chicago scores 27 on Sunday, New York needs 17 for the over, and the Jets have scored at least 17 in all three games this season. I can’t see Chicago stuck on 3 again.
The spread
Chicago -3.5 is the median across 11 books. On last season’s rates the Bears are about 6.8 points better on a neutral field, before home field is counted. That is 3.3 more than the market’s number, still past my field goal, and home field only widens it.
Three is the number that matters. At -3 a Chicago win by exactly a field goal is a push, and at -3.5 it is a loss. Four books still deal -3, at -120 to -122, and seven deal -3.5 at -105 to even money; DraftKings is -3.5 at -105, the same on ESPN. Take the 3 where you can find it and pay the extra for it. At -3.5 it is still a bet.
Last season, game by game
New York finished last season with five straight losses, every one by 23 points or more. Chicago played 11 one-score games and won seven of them.
These two did not play each other last season, and the game records here begin in 2025, so there is no head-to-head to read.
What the moneyline says
About 61.6 percent for Chicago once the margin is out, from -179 and +150. That lines up with the spread, and it carries the same discount.
The market has one Chicago result at the front of its mind. I have seventeen games from last season, and two of Chicago’s three this season, pointing the other way.
Take the over 43, and Chicago -3.5. Last season’s rates put this game near 49 points with the Bears by almost seven, and the only number that says otherwise is 9-3.
Kickoff is 1:00 PM Eastern on Sunday 4 October. The spread, total and moneyline are the median of 11 US sportsbooks, read on 1 October 2026.
Injury report
From ESPN’s injury listings for both rosters, read 1 October 2026, 07:53 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff, and this page’s call does not price them.
New York Jets: Out: Tyler Baron (DE, knee); doubtful: Dylan Parham (G, knee), Adonai Mitchell (WR, finger), Breece Hall (RB, quadriceps), Mason Taylor (TE, thumb); questionable: Jeremy Ruckert (TE, knee), Kenyon Sadiq (TE, back), Kingsley Enagbare (LB, knee), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, groin), Kiko Mauigoa (LB, quadriceps), Caullin Lacy (WR, undisclosed); on injured reserve: Arian Smith (WR, knee – acl – surgery), David Onyemata (DT, groin – surgery), Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB, ankle), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, ankle – sprain), Tim Patrick (WR, groin), Kingsley Jonathan (DE, thigh – bruise), VJ Payne (S, undisclosed – bruise), Tre Brown (CB, finger), Chip Trayanum (RB, neck), Anez Cooper (G, shoulder).
Chicago Bears: Out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, undisclosed), Kyler Gordon (CB, calf), Shemar Turner (DT, knee – acl – surgery), Noah Sewell (LB, achilles – surgery); doubtful: Braxton Jones (OT, knee), Caleb Williams (QB, hamstring – strain); questionable: Cam Lewis (CB, leg), Marlen Sewell (S, undisclosed); on injured reserve: Dallis Flowers (CB, leg), Jonathan Garvin (DE, undisclosed), Hayden Large (TE, undisclosed), Coby Bryant (S, knee – surgery), Ruben Hyppolite II (LB, shoulder), Tony Fields II (LB, undisclosed), Brittain Brown (RB, undisclosed), Nephi Sewell (LB, concussion), Nikola Kalinic (TE, knee).