NFL
SpreadTotalMoneyNYJ+6.5U 47.5+245DET-6.5O 47.5-303
NFL · Sunday 27 September
Jets at Lions Final Score: Lions Win 31-24
Final: Detroit Lions 31, New York Jets 24, Sunday 27 September at Ford Field.
Our call won. Before the game this page said: “Pick: Lions -6.5.” Lions -6.5 won: Detroit won by 7.
What decided it
Detroit won the third quarter by 4. Detroit turned the ball over 0 times to New York’s 1, and gained 381 yards to 335.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 0 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
The last DraftKings line ESPN holds for the game is DET -7, with a total of 49.5. Detroit pushed as the favourite. The 55 points went over the total.
What comes next
New York plays next at the Chicago Bears on Sunday 4 October: our prediction. Detroit plays next at the Carolina Panthers on Sunday 4 October: our prediction.
The prediction, as published before the game
Everything below is the page as it stood before the game, kept unchanged as the record. It was titled “Jets at Lions Best Pick, Prediction and Odds”.
Detroit -6.5 is short of where last season’s rates put this game. The pick is Detroit -6.5.
The spread has not moved since Monday: Detroit -6.5 then, and -6.5 on 24 September as the median of 11 books, so the bet is exactly the one it was.
Detroit scored 28.3 points a game in 2025 and allowed 24.3, a differential of +68 across 17 games. The Jets scored 17.6 and allowed 29.6, a differential of -203. That is the largest negative figure among the teams playing this week.
The number the argument rests on
The gap in points per game is 10.7 in Detroit’s favour on offence and 5.3 on defence. Combining season rates and adding a conventional two and a half points for home field puts this game at Detroit by about ten and a half. The market has it at 6.5.
An edge of four points on a spread is well above the threshold I use, which is two. Below two I pass, because the error in a season-rate estimate is larger than the edge.
Pick: Lions -6.5
The line has come toward the Jets. The downloads on 16 September had Detroit anywhere from -7 to -10. It reached -6.5 on 21 September and it was still there on 24 September, with nine of 11 books at -6.5 and two at -7. The data here carries no injuries, so I cannot tell you why it dropped. I can tell you the number it dropped to is the one I want.
What the record does not say
Both teams are 1-1 this season. That is where the short number comes from, and it is a two-game sample on each side.
Two games is not a rate. I am saying the number and saying it proves nothing: at this sample size the standard error on a points-per-game estimate is wider than the entire edge I am claiming. The 17-game rates from last season are what I am pricing off, because they are the only sample here that can carry a decision.
Where the data runs out
The Jets went 3-14 last season. A team that bad has a wide distribution: the same roster that loses by thirty can win by three, and a 17-game sample of a bad team is noisier than a 17-game sample of an average one. That is the honest limit on this pick.
Injury report
From the teams’ reports as carried by Nucleus, read 2026-09-25 19:38 UTC. Statuses change up to kickoff.
New York Jets: Out: Tyler Baron (DE, knee); on injured reserve: Tre Brown (CB, finger), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, ankle), Kingsley Jonathan (DE, thigh), Tim Patrick (WR, groin), Chip Trayanum (RB, neck); questionable: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, groin), Marcelino McCrary-Ball (LB, ankle), Kene Nwangwu (RB, back), David Onyemata (DT, groin), Joseph Ossai (DE, foot), Mason Taylor (TE, thumb).
Detroit Lions: Out: Brian Branch (S, achilles), Kerby Joseph (S, knee); on injured reserve: Avonte Maddox (CB, foot); questionable: Ben Bartch (G, foot), Thomas Harper (S, ankle).
The moneyline
Detroit is priced around a three-in-four chance to win. That is consistent with a 6.5-point spread and gives me no separate edge, so I am not playing it.
The total
Forty-seven and a half, the median of 11 books.
Detroit’s games went over 47.5 ten times in 17 last season, which is what 28.3 points a game scored and 24.3 allowed produces. The Jets’ games went over it eight times, at 17.6 a game. Those two pull in opposite directions. I have no lean I would put money on, so the total is a pass.
What would change the call
A move to -9 or beyond takes the edge below two points and makes this a pass. Detroit missing its starting quarterback would do the same, and Nucleus carries no injury data at all, so that is a gap I cannot close from here: check the Friday report before betting.
Pick: Lions -6.5.