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The Bruins opened at -142 and are -120 now. At -120, take the Bruins.
The Boston Bruins are -120 against the New York Rangers at +100 at DraftKings. With the margin removed, that is a 52.2% chance for the Bruins. Our number is 61.0%. The gap is 8.8 points, and a side is a bet when the gap reaches 5.
How the number is built
Our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win. That is the whole method.
The Bruins went 29-11-1 at home last season, meaning 29 wins, 11 regulation losses and 1 loss after regulation, a 70.7% home win rate over 41 games. The Rangers went 20-19-2 on the road and lost 21 of 41, a 51.2% road loss rate. The average of 70.7 and 51.2 is 61.0.
The margin is the few points a book adds to both prices so that the two add up to more than 100%. Taken out of -120 and +100, it leaves the Bruins at 52.2% and the Rangers at 47.8%.
This is a new season, and rosters change over a summer. Nothing on this page measures those changes. Last season is the only evidence in hand: 41 home games for the Bruins and 41 road games for the Rangers.
The Bruins at home, the Rangers on the road
The Bruins allowed 2.56 goals a game at home and scored 3.54. The Rangers on the road scored 3.22 and allowed 3.07.
The Rangers were better away than at home. They went 20-19-2 on the road and 14-20-7 at home, and the method uses the road half. Over the whole season they finished 34-39-9 with 77 points and were outscored by 0.15 goals a game.
The Bruins finished 45-27-10 with 100 points and outscored opponents by 0.27 a game. Their road record was 16-16-9, far below their home one. They lost a playoff series 4-2 to the Buffalo Sabres. The Rangers did not reach the playoffs.
The teams met three times in 2025-26, and the Rangers won two. The Rangers won 6-2 at Boston on 28 November, the Bruins won 10-2 at home on 10 January, and the Rangers won 4-3 in overtime at home on 27 January.
The price
The Bruins opened at -142 and the Rangers at +120. Read on 24 September 2026 at 01:10 UTC, DraftKings via ESPN, they were -120 and +100. Both sides moved toward the Rangers.
The move is what made this a bet. At the opening prices the market had the Bruins at 56.3%, a gap of 4.7 points, which is a pass by this method.
Pick: Bruins moneyline
Boston Bruins -120. Our number is 61.0% and the market’s 52.2%, a gap of 8.8 points against a 5-point threshold.
It rests on 82 games from last season, 41 for each team.
What changes it
The price going back where it came from. With the book’s margin at today’s size, the Bruins at -141 leave a 5.0-point gap and the bet stands. At -142 it is 4.9 and a pass. That is where the Bruins opened; at the full opening pair of prices the gap was 4.7, also a pass.
Lineups are the other thing, and this page does not state them. A summer can change a team’s home rate by more than any gap on this page. Check the lineups before you bet.
The total and the puck line
The total is 5.5, over -130 and under +110. The Bruins’ games went over 5.5 in 47 of 82 and the Rangers’ in 39 of 82. The Bruins’ home games averaged 6.10 goals and the Rangers’ road games 6.29.
The two over rates, 57.3% and 47.6%, average 52.4%. The over at -130 is priced at 54.3% with the margin removed, 1.8 points the other way. Pass on the total.
The Bruins are -1.5 at +180 on the puck line and the Rangers +1.5 at -218. The Bruins won by two goals or more in 25 of 82 games, and the Rangers lost by two or more in 27 of 82. That averages 31.7% against 34.3% priced for Bruins -1.5, a 2.5-point gap. Pass on the puck line too.
Rangers at Bruins, Tuesday 29 September, 8:00 PM ET, TD Garden. Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read 24 September 2026, 01:10 UTC. Results: ESPN, read 23 September 2026. Nothing here states who is available.
