Blues at Avalanche Best Pick, Prediction and Odds

The Avalanche won 26 of 41 at home last season. Our number makes them 61.0%: bet the Avalanche at -127 or better, the Blues at +194 or better.

Our number is 61.0% for the Colorado Avalanche and 39.0% for the St. Louis Blues. No line had been posted for this game as of 30 September 2026. A side becomes a bet when the market, with its margin removed, sits at least 5 points below our number for it.

How the number is built

The method is one clause: our home win chance is the average of the home team’s 2025-26 home win rate and the visitor’s 2025-26 road loss rate, with a win in overtime or a shootout counted as a win.

The Avalanche went 26-9-6 at home last season: 26 wins, 9 regulation losses and 6 losses after regulation. That is a 63.4% home win rate over 41 games. The Blues went 17-19-5 on the road, so they lost 24 of 41, a 58.5% road loss rate. The average of the two is 61.0% for the Avalanche, which leaves 39.0% for the Blues.

It is a new season. Rosters change over a summer, and nothing on this page measures what changed. The 2026-27 season opened on 29 September, and no game from it is in these figures. The evidence is 82 games from last season, 41 at home for the Avalanche and 41 on the road for the Blues.

The Avalanche at home, the Blues on the road

At home, the Avalanche scored 3.83 goals a game and allowed 2.63. The Blues on the road scored 2.80 and allowed 3.22. The visitor scored 1.03 a game fewer and allowed 0.59 more.

The Avalanche won more away from home. Their road record was 29-7-5, three wins more than at home. The method uses only the home half, and it is the weaker one. The Blues were weaker on the road than at home, 17-19-5 against 20-14-7. Their road half is the one the method uses.

The Avalanche finished 55-16-11 with 121 points, scoring 3.68 goals a game and allowing 2.48, a margin of +1.20. In the playoffs they beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-0 and the Minnesota Wild 4-1, then lost 4-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Blues finished 37-33-12 with 86 points, scoring 2.82 goals a game and allowing 3.15, a margin of -0.33. They did not reach the playoffs.

The Avalanche played 29 one-goal games and went 14-4-11 in them. The Blues played 39 one-goal games and went 18-9-12 in them. Games that went past 60 minutes: 18 of 82 for the Avalanche, 16 of 82 for the Blues. A loss in any of them counts as a loss in our number.

The teams met three times in 2025-26, and the Avalanche won two. The Avalanche won 6-1 at home on 31 December; the Blues won 3-2 on the road on 5 April; the Avalanche won 3-1 on the road on 7 April. Three games prove nothing about a fourth.

The price

There is no line to measure against yet, so here are the prices at which this becomes a bet. The Avalanche need the market to rate them at 56.0% or less, with the margin removed. At -127 or better, that holds whatever the Blues are priced at. The Blues need 34.0% or less, and +194 or better does it. A better price is one that pays more: for a favourite, a smaller number after the minus sign.

The Avalanche are 11.0 points above even in our number, so they stay a bet as a favourite, as short as -127. The Blues need to be priced as a clear underdog, +194 or longer.

No total or puck line had been posted either. For reference, the Avalanche’s home games averaged 6.46 goals (3.83 scored plus 2.63 allowed), and the Blues’ road games 6.02 (2.80 plus 3.22). Without a posted total there is nothing to compare them with.

Pick: Avalanche at -127 or better, Blues at +194 or better

Our number is 61.0% for the Avalanche. With no line posted, the call is the pair of prices above. Between them, pass.

It rests on 82 games, 41 at home for the Avalanche and 41 on the road for the Blues, all from last season.

What changes it

The price. The line posted on the day decides it. A Avalanche price of -128 or a Blues price of +193 may still qualify, depending on the size of the book’s margin, and that check is made against the posted pair.

The summer is the other thing. A season of home and road results says how these teams played in 2025-26. Nothing on this page says who is in either lineup on 3 October. Check the lineups before you bet.

Blues at Avalanche, Saturday 3 October, 9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena. Results: ESPN, read 30 September 2026 (2025-26 regular season and playoffs). No line posted as of 30 September 2026, 00:50 UTC. Nothing here states who is available.