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Game Preview Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Tennessee Titans head to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 with playoff stakes for both sides. Kansas City enters as one of the AFC’s top contenders, while Tennessee looks to stay alive in the tightly packed AFC South.
The Titans aim to slow the tempo with a power run game, while the Chiefs bring a top-tier passing attack and elite defense. This matchup features contrasting philosophies, making it a key game on the betting board.
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Odds and Key Information
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Total: 43.0
- Moneyline: Titans +350, Chiefs -440
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
The Chiefs opened as strong favorites and remain heavily backed at home. Total bettors are monitoring weather and pace projections. See market shifts in the NFL betting guide.
Tennessee Titans Outlook
The Tennessee Titans sit at 6-8 and are battling inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Rookie quarterback Will Levis continues to grow but faces his toughest test yet in a loud Arrowhead environment. The offense still leans heavily on Derrick Henry, who ranks among the league leaders in rushing attempts but is averaging under 4.0 yards per carry.
Tennessee’s defense is stout against the run but ranks in the bottom 10 against the pass, allowing over 245 yards per game through the air. The secondary has been prone to giving up explosive plays, and pressure up front has been inconsistent outside of Jeffrey Simmons.
The Titans are 2-5 ATS on the road this season and have covered just one of their last four December games. Full performance metrics are updated weekly on the NFL picks page.
Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
The Kansas City Chiefs are 11-3 and aiming to lock up home-field advantage. Patrick Mahomes continues to lead one of the league’s most efficient offenses, despite a drop in big plays compared to past seasons. Rookie wideout Rashee Rice and tight end Travis Kelce are Mahomes’ top targets in a pass-first system.
Defensively, Kansas City is having one of its best seasons under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs rank top five in red zone defense, sacks, and opponent third-down conversion rate. Chris Jones anchors a defensive front that should find favorable matchups against Tennessee’s offensive line.
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS at home and 7-2 overall against teams below .500. For more futures outlook and playoff scenarios, check the NFL playoff picture.
Key Matchup Table
| Key Matchup | Edge |
|---|---|
| Quarterback Play | Chiefs |
| Running Game | Titans |
| Defensive Pressure | Chiefs |
| Offensive Line Protection | Chiefs |
| Turnover Margin | Even |
Betting Trends
The Tennessee Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and have failed to cover in five of their last six against teams with winning records. The under has hit in four of their last six overall.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in December and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against AFC opponents. The under is 5-2 in their last seven at Arrowhead.
Get more insights into totals and spreads in the full NFL Week 16 picks blog.
Prediction
The Chiefs are the superior team on both sides of the ball and hold a major edge at quarterback. Tennessee will try to slow the game and shorten possessions through the run game, but Kansas City’s front seven is built to handle that script.
If the Titans fall behind early, Levis will be forced into difficult downfield throws under pressure. Mahomes should find enough success in the short game to move the chains and control time of possession.
Expect a controlled but convincing home win by Kansas City in a game that likely finishes under the total.
Projected Score: Chiefs 24, Titans 13
Spread Pick: Chiefs -9.5
Total Lean: Under 43.0
More big-matchup previews and totals trends are available in the Sunday Night Football predictions blog.
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