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Game Preview Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
The Baltimore Ravens head to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots in a Week 16 AFC battle with major playoff implications for one side—and pride on the line for the other. The Ravens enter as one of the top teams in the AFC, while the Patriots are focused on development and defensive consistency as they build toward the future.
This game offers a stark contrast in identity, with Baltimore leaning on its dual-threat quarterback and elite defense, and New England trying to stay competitive behind a limited offense but disciplined coaching. For bettors, this matchup presents value in spread and total markets—especially if weather becomes a factor.
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Odds and Key Information
- Spread: Ravens -7.5
- Total: 39.5
- Moneyline: Ravens -320, Patriots +260
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
The Ravens opened as heavy road favorites, and sharp money has mostly supported the early number. With cold conditions expected, totals markets have also seen movement toward the under. More real-time adjustments are covered on the NFL betting guide.
Baltimore Ravens Outlook
The Baltimore Ravens enter at 11-3, riding one of the most balanced rosters in the league. Lamar Jackson is producing at an MVP-caliber level, and Baltimore ranks top five in scoring offense and rushing yards per game. Tight end Mark Andrews remains a consistent red-zone threat, while rookie Zay Flowers continues to gain chemistry with Jackson.
Defensively, the Ravens have been elite. They lead the NFL in sacks, allow the fewest red zone touchdowns, and rank top-3 in takeaways. Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton anchor a defense that can shift between pressure and coverage looks seamlessly.
Baltimore has also been one of the best ATS teams in 2025, covering in seven of its last nine games. Weekly updates can be found on the NFL picks page.
New England Patriots Outlook
The New England Patriots are 4-10 and focused on player development with the season winding down. Bailey Zappe has taken over at quarterback, and while the offense has shown modest improvement, the passing game still ranks bottom five in most metrics.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is the team’s most consistent offensive threat, but offensive line struggles have capped production. On defense, New England continues to perform above expectations, especially in limiting explosive plays and holding opponents under 20 points in five of their last seven.
Despite their record, the Patriots have been competitive in several games as underdogs. Their defense could keep them in it early, but they’ll need to generate turnovers to have a real chance. More insights are available in the NFL playoff and underdog blog.
Key Matchup Table
| Key Matchup | Edge |
|---|---|
| Quarterback Play | Ravens |
| Defensive Takeaways | Ravens |
| Rushing Attack | Ravens |
| Red Zone Stops | Even |
| Coaching Experience | Patriots |
Betting Trends
The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 8-3 ATS as favorites this season. They’ve also hit the under in five of their last seven games, largely due to strong defensive play.
The New England Patriots are 4-2 ATS in their last six games as home underdogs. The total has gone under in seven of their last nine games overall, with their offense averaging just 16.2 points per game.
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Prediction
Baltimore’s superior talent and execution on both sides of the ball should be the deciding factor. The Patriots’ defense might slow the pace, but it’s unlikely they can generate enough offense to pull off an upset.
Expect a methodical Ravens win driven by ground control, turnover margin, and field position. If weather plays a role, this game could be lower-scoring than expected, favoring a Ravens cover but a slight lean toward the under.
Projected Score: Ravens 23, Patriots 13
Spread Pick: Ravens -7.5
Total Lean: Under 39.5
Explore similar low-total matchups and betting breakdowns in our Sunday Night Football preview.
Why You Need Expert Picks
Games with a large spread and low total—like Ravens vs Patriots—require sharp evaluation of value on both sides and totals. The NFL picks section features expert picks, player prop breakdowns, and live betting strategies.
Check the Handicappers Leaderboard to follow consistent winners in both ATS and O/U categories. Looking for more edge? Dive into markets like NFL MVP odds, coach of the year, and best NFL parlays.
