Our soccer parlay for Saturday, October 17 and Sunday, October 18 is Chelsea to beat Everton away, Brentford to beat Liverpool at home and AFC Bournemouth to beat Sunderland at home: three Premier League legs, each the bet our prediction for that game makes, paying +1009 together at DraftKings at 15:02 UTC on Friday, October 16, 2026.
A parlay pays only if every leg wins. On our numbers this one does that 14.8% of the time, so it loses 85.2% of the time. The price is the reason to take it: +1009 pays as if all three legs win 9.0% of the time.
The parlay takes at most three legs: the Premier League bets with the largest edge, our probability minus the market’s when the prediction was published (Chelsea 9.0, Brentford 11.5 and AFC Bournemouth 8.5 points). Crystal Palace and Manchester United are also inside their range, with a smaller edge, and stay in the table of single bets below.
The soccer parlay for this weekend
| Leg | Game | Kickoff | Our call, as published | DraftKings now | Decimal | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea at Everton | Sat Oct 17, 7:30 am ET | Chelsea +115 | +120 | 2.20 | Our prediction |
| 2 | Liverpool at Brentford | Sat Oct 17, 10:00 am ET | Brentford +140 | +140 | 2.40 | Our prediction |
| 3 | Sunderland at AFC Bournemouth | Sun Oct 18, 9:00 am ET | Bournemouth +110 | +110 | 2.10 | Our prediction |
The combined price is the legs’ decimal prices multiplied: 2.20 × 2.40 × 2.10 = 11.09, which is +1009 in American odds. A $10 stake returns $110.90 if all three legs win, the stake included.
Why each leg is on it
Chelsea at Everton. When our prediction was published, DraftKings had Chelsea at +115, which with the margin taken out gives them 44.3%; our number gives them 53.3%, 9.0 points more, against a bar of 5 for a bet. The model has Everton on 1.27 expected goals and Chelsea on 1.96. In the table Chelsea are 6th and Everton 5th, both on 10 points after 6 games. The price is now +120, and the prediction says the bet holds down to -102.
Liverpool at Brentford. When our prediction was published, DraftKings had Brentford at +140, which with the margin taken out gives them 39.9%; our number gives them 51.4%, 11.5 points more, against a bar of 5 for a bet. The model has Brentford on 1.98 expected goals and Liverpool on 1.38. Brentford are 4th on 10 points after 6 games; Liverpool are 9th on 9 points after 6 games. The price is unchanged, and the prediction says the bet holds down to +107.
Sunderland at AFC Bournemouth. When our prediction was published, DraftKings had AFC Bournemouth at +110, which with the margin taken out gives them 45.4%; our number gives them 53.9%, 8.5 points more, against a bar of 5 for a bet. The model has AFC Bournemouth on 1.47 expected goals and Sunderland on 0.77. AFC Bournemouth are 18th on 3 points after 6 games; Sunderland are 17th on 4 points after 6 games. The price is unchanged, and the prediction says the bet holds down to -104.
What the margin does to a parlay
Every price carries the book’s margin, and a parlay multiplies the margins along with the prices. At today’s DraftKings prices the margin is 4.2% on Chelsea’s game, 4.4% on Brentford’s game and 4.8% on AFC Bournemouth’s game. Across the parlay it comes to 14.0%: the price says all three legs win 9.0% of the time, and the same prices with the margin removed say 7.9%. The parlay guide works through how that grows with each leg.
Our case for the parlay is the same as for each leg: our numbers rate every team on it above their prices. Multiplied, our 53.3%, 51.4% and 53.9% give 14.8%, which assumes one result says nothing about the other. A fair price for 14.8% is +577; DraftKings pays +1009. On our numbers that is an expected return of 63.8% of the stake, the measure the expected value guide explains. If our numbers overrate any of these teams, the parlay multiplies that error the same way.
A draw loses the leg
Every leg is a three-way moneyline: home win, draw or away win. A draw is its own result, so a drawn game loses the leg and the parlay with it. A draw no bet leg is refunded on a draw, and how the parlay then settles is set by each book’s rules; a double chance leg wins on the draw too, at a shorter price. Neither is the bet our predictions make, so neither is on this page.
Every bet our soccer predictions make this weekend
These are all 12 bets, the parlay’s legs included, for anyone building a different one. Each is the call its prediction published; the last column is the price it holds to. Adding a leg multiplies the price, the margin and the chance of losing.
| Game | Kickoff | Our call, as published | DraftKings now | Holds to | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea at Everton | Sat Oct 17, 7:30 am ET | Chelsea +115 | +120 | -102 | Our prediction |
| Atlético Madrid at Espanyol | Sat Oct 17, 8:00 am ET | Espanyol +360 | +380 | +326 | Our prediction |
| Liverpool at Brentford | Sat Oct 17, 10:00 am ET | Brentford +140 | +140 | +107 | Our prediction |
| Paris Saint-Germain at Strasbourg | Sat Oct 17, 11:15 am ET | Strasbourg +550 | +550 | +399 | Our prediction |
| Internazionale at Bologna | Sat Oct 17, 12:00 pm ET | Internazionale -175 | -175 | -222 | Our prediction |
| Barcelona at Real Betis | Sat Oct 17, 12:00 pm ET | Real Betis +500 | +500 | +230 | Our prediction |
| RB Leipzig at Bayern Munich | Sat Oct 17, 12:30 pm ET | Bayern Munich -475 | -475 | -476 | Our prediction |
| Genoa at AS Roma | Sat Oct 17, 2:45 pm ET | AS Roma -225 | -190 | -227 | Our prediction |
| Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC | Sat Oct 17, 7:30 pm ET | Inter Miami CF -110 | -110 | -204 | Our prediction |
| Sunderland at AFC Bournemouth | Sun Oct 18, 9:00 am ET | Bournemouth +110 | +110 | -104 | Our prediction |
| Crystal Palace at Brighton & Hove Albion | Sun Oct 18, 9:00 am ET | Crystal Palace +425 | +425 | +381 | Our prediction |
| Manchester United at Leeds United | Sun Oct 18, 9:00 am ET | Manchester United +190 | +190 | +184 | Our prediction |
Our predictions make no bet on Arsenal at Nottingham Forest, Ipswich Town at Manchester City, Hull City at Fulham, Napoli at Venezia, Borussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin and Aston Villa at Newcastle United, so none of those games is a leg.
Single bets, not parlays, are the subject of best soccer bets this week. More of our games are on the soccer predictions page and the Premier League hub.
Prices: DraftKings via ESPN, read at 15:02 UTC on Friday, October 16, 2026. Each call and its published price are as shown on its prediction; a prediction can be re-read on game day, and if its call changes, that page says so.